Before the release of each expansion I do my best to try and predict the nature of that set.  We try to do this well before any cards are released.  This is not simply a wishlist of things I would want to see in the set, it is a strict analysis of the set itself in the context of the limited information already known.  The following were my predictions that were outlined here more than 6 weeks ago (March 5th).  With most of Alara Reborn now spoiled, I am able to take a quick look back at my predictions and comment on each.

Prediction 1: 5 Color Madness 2.0 (more rainbow colored cards) - WRONG - While Alara Reborn will indeed feature a couple of rainbow colored cards, the set is certainly not focused on them.  I had taken the tagline about "the death of five worlds and the birth of one" at face value.  I'm a tad confused because the revealed cards are even less combined then we saw in Conflux.  I'm not really seeing a "birth of one world" here.  There are a number of Ravnica Guild colored cards but I'm just not seeing "the death of 5 worlds" here.  A world with only gold colored cards, maybe.  But is this really what you would expect having seen Shards and then Conflux's rainbow fest?  Alright, alright, I was wrong.

Prediction 2: The shards will stay mostly in tact - CORRECT - Alara Reborn is 100% gold but the shards have remained almost entirely intact.  There are many dual colored cards as well as Grixis, Bant etc. themed cards.  This one was pretty straight forward and I'll give myself an easy "Correct" here.

Prediction 3: More planeswalkers - WRONG - Alright, so this was more of a wish rather than a prediction.  There were already four planeswalkers featured in Shards and a fifth in Conflux.  What were the chances of yet another!?  I think this one was dead when prediction #1 died.   My only regret here is that we probably won't see a new planeswalker until October.  One of the few tidbits we have about Magic 2010 is that all of the Lorwyn walkers will be reprinted.  I doubt we'll see any more printed in that set.  That means we haven't seen a new planeswalker (save Nicol) since October of 2008!  I was wrong on this one, but oh how I wish I could have been right.  For all our planeswalking sakes.

Prediction 4: More use of the term “Multicolor” - CORRECT - Nailed this one.  Confirmed on multiple cards so far, the term "multicolor" is featured in Alara Reborn more than it has been in all of the 48 previous expansions combined.  Granted, this set features exclusively gold cards, but in a tiny 145 card set the use of this term as a card type deeply effects the expansion and Standard as a whole.

Prediction 5: More color hate - WRONG - I'm not sure its humanly possible to be more wrong about a prediction than I was here.  The Orb of Insight comes up with one result for "protection".  And that card is an overpriced artifact creature with protection from red and green.  Needless to say, Alara Reborn is almost completely devoid of color protection.  This puzzles me because I was assuming color hate would be used, as it was in Conflux, to balance to the overwhelming dual colored creatures.  I can only assume WotC wanted nothing to stand in the way of their multicolored onslaught.

Prediction 6: Get ready for the best multi colored land get/generation cards in the game - WRONG - Wizards certainly took this "all gold" thing to an unprecedented level.  I think most of us would still have considered the set to be "all gold" even with the inclusion of a few lands.  As long as we're being anal retentive, some of those tokens aren't golden!  Its not all gold!  Alright, but you get the idea.   I suppose they didn't think it was necessary and/or possible to top the exquisite Eventide and Shadowmoor dual lands.  Although they did promise us a few new lands in M10.  Either way, my crystal ball failed me on this one.

[caption id="attachment_2010" align="alignleft" width="144" caption="The color wheel through the eyes of Mark Rosewater"][/caption]

Prediction 7: 5 color / multi colored card’s last hurrah for a while - UNKNOWN - I was very close to giving myself credit for this, but my time machine has been in the shop for a while.  I think its obvious enough that an all gold set puts multicolored cards on the back burner for (at the very least) a year or two.  As much as I enjoyed the Ravnica and Shadowmoor blocks, they gave us enough multicolored action over the last 3 years.  If it wasn't before, it has now officially been done, its over.   Mark Rosewater, the idea store called and your shipment of "new ideas" has finally arrived and is awaiting pickup at your leisure.

Conclusions: 2/6 ain't bad, eh?  Maybe as a baseball batting average, but certainly not for a professional Magic the Gathering analysis guru completely within his element!   I'll be the first to admit my abject failure to predict the subtleties of Alara Reborn.  While overall I don't feel particularly blown away by surprises in this set I do feel as though Wizards took the "all gold" idea to a level I could have never anticipated.

[caption id="attachment_2004" align="alignright" width="240" caption="Predicting the future is no easy task."][/caption]

From getting rid of lands entirely, to foregoing color hate all together, I failed to realize the seriousness of their convictions to truly make the set all about gold cards while offering nothing to the alter of balance.   Keep in mind, these predictions were made before any spoiler cards were revealed, but I digress.  You can rest assured that this entire ordeal has not deterred me one bit.  On the contrary, I'm ready and excited to get my predictions on the record for Magic 2010 and I hope you'll be there with me to agree, disagree or laugh in my face at those conjectures.  Expect those predictions soon after the launch of ARB.   In closing, I'll defer to Yoda (as I so often do): "Always in motion is the future."