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Brewing for States - RDW & Monument Green

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I am not going to States, so the amount of brewing I have done for this format is not as extensive as it could have been. That said, I've tried most of the known archetypes and helped friends brew, and here is where I am at with regards to the format. Sideboards are missing, but the exact cards you want vary greatly depending on expected metagame from state to state.

Decks I Think Are Considerable

Have you cast Goblin Guide on turn one? If not, I would suggest you try it some time. Kargan Dragonlord is also now a legitimate way to do twenty damage with the decrease in Terminates, Path to Exile, and similar effects and this doesn't hurt the rest of your creatures either. On the topic of efficient spot removal RDW is the deck that can play the best options in that department, specifically holding a monopoly on good one mana ways to kill a Lotus Cobra or Fauna Shaman.

On top of all these, this deck is extremely consistent. The main high variance factor is turn one Goblin Guide, but unlike many decks floating around it is not required for the rest of the cards to function.

This deck is also very strong against anything with a basic Forest in it, either because they are reliant on cards like Lotus Cobra to function and you have the form of interaction or they are playing things such as Explore that give you Time Walks.

Kiln Fiend is way too hit or miss. There are times where you seven them on turn 3 and times where you are stuck with a 1/2 do nothing. Ember Hauler provides more consistency and is a live top deck as the game goes long.

Searing Blaze is definitely questionable, but in the end the upside of being a gigantic blow out if your opponent plays a creature outweighs the downside of being a brick otherwise. To be fair, the card isn't even a complete brick against the "non-creature" decks either. UW still has Wall of Omens that Blaze can help punch through efficiently and the GR decks have to actually play a creature to win and often stabilize so low on life that activating a 3 damage burn spell is lethal.

Molten-Tail Masticore was considered for a while, but in the end it kept being too clunky. The creature density is too low to always have it hit for four a turn and there aren't many more good options to add. Even when it was active you had to be holding back cards to keep it and often would have burn spells stranded due to it eating all your mana. The one time it is good is after a creature heavy draw floods out, which is a corner case at best. The card is definitely good, but less so in a deck where you are trying to convert every card directly into damage immediately.

Koth is a lot worse than it looks, which is still very good. It plays similarly to Hell's Thunder only reversed in the things it is good against (spot removal versus large ground creatures). The ultimate obviously kills them, but realistically so did Unearth.

If your opponent plays Kor Firewalker and a removal spell for any Dragonlords life gets really rough really fast. Early Baneslayer Angels and Wurmcoil Engines are obnoxious at best. Answers exist, but you put yourself in the Dredge like position of needing to decide if a solid draw is good enough when your opponent is just aiming to have one specific card or line of plays. Worse yet your responses to their hate are either situational (Mark of Mutiny), don't convert directly to damage (Brittle Effigy), or both (Leyline of Punishment).

Overall

If you have no clue what your metagame will look like, this is a good choice. You can bash through anything not prepared and most things that think they are.

Titan Ramp

I will direct you to the recent lists from the TCGPlayer 5K for this deck, where the finals was an Eldrazi Ramp deck against a Valakut Ramp deck. Both lists have their merits, namely Valakut having more raw power and access to removal where Eldrazi have more resiliency against Blue-White control decks.

There are a lot of directions to take this deck. Personally I think the Valakut list from that event is short on creatures for Summoning Trap. I would want a minimum of twelve bombs to hit before I felt comfortable casting that card, and even then I would expect to whiff. Wurmcoil Engine seems to me like a massive boost for this deck as a way to swing back for the inevitable early board advantage your opponent will have. In Valakut builds I would look into a couple Everflowing Chalices as despite it not actually getting land the more important part is being able to cast an accelerant on turns two and three to enable a turn four Titan. Another option for a late game is Seer's Sundial, which gets downright obscene with Oracle of Mul Daya and Valakut. Destructive Force is another powerful effect to utilize, and I'm sure a ramp deck exists that can end games with it.

The best part of this deck is that it does the exact same thing every game as long as you mulligan for it and unlike RDW, the direct hate cards aren't that great against this deck. Against most decks boarding Tunnel Ignus and Leonin Arbiter you will be boarding removal anyways, and if a slow deck goes down that route you can legitimately ignore those cards.

The main issue is that this strategy takes time to set up. You can't always have the Bolt or Pyroclasm and sometimes it just isn't enough to stop your opponent from goldfishing faster than you do. Boarding can help, but there are only so many slots you can switch around and still have a functional deck.

Overall

Similar to Red Deck you bowl people over. Just figure out a plan for when they try to do the same to you and Primeval Titan will lead you to victory.

This is based off the list Gavin Verhey, Ben Hayes, myself, and others played at PT: San Juan. If I was going to States, this would be the deck I would play based on the results of last weekend's 5K. However, due to the whole "if" factor, the list is not perfectly tuned. Jace, the Mind Sculptor might deserve space now that Birds of Paradise can help with the mana, which was the main issue in Block. A land was also shaved due to the addition of the one drop accelerators, which could be wrong, and three Monuments main might be too many. I would not want to run Fauna Shaman in this deck. This deck is not a Survival engine deck, it is a Fish deck designed to put down a clock and disrupt the one or two things your opponent does that matter. I think over the ten rounds of play at the PT I recurred Vengevine once. Not to say a Fauna Shaman deck isn't possible, but it is either very different from this deck or you are using Shaman fairly minimally to break out of board stalls.

This deck is amazing against all of the control and ramp decks. As far as I know every loss the players with this deck had in San Juan to Eldrazi, UGR, and UW was due to mulligans or large punts. Ben Hayes went 10-0 on the back of him only facing those three decks.

What this deck is not amazing against is basic Mountain plus one drop. If a Red deck plays some threats and clears your early creatures you are out of the game before it starts and the main deck currently can't beat a Kargan Dragonlord. Cunning Sparkmage is completely embarrassing to the point that I am actively excited about Hornet Sting or Twisted Image. Fortunately your board is pretty open due to your other matchups with you only wanting a couple extra counters for the good matchups, but I'm not sure whether the cards in the format are enough. Your main plan is to just start sticking 4/x's for four and kill them immediately. Obstinate Baloth helps here, Leatherback Baloth is a step in the right direction, and Narcolepsy helps buy time early and fight a Dragonlord, but you still have to beat all their cards at once. Splashing for cheap spot removal seems like it might work, but the mana would be miserable as you can't count on Birds or Cobra to get there in the matchup. Other aggressive decks are less of an issue as your creatures are in general better than the aggressive ones and your tempo plan and boarded Mind Control effects beat the midrange decks, but the combination of speed, spot removal, and reach from RDW is a disaster.

Overall

There is risk, but the payoff when you are rewarded is very high.

Decks I Would Not Play

UW Control is definitely a strong deck, but it shares the same issue as most control decks in unknown formats: picking the right answers is difficult without information, and playing mediocre answers is a quick way to lose. Playing this deck is not the worst, but I would focus on being a Planeswalker deck and presenting threats.

Fauna Shaman decks do not appear to be well positioned at the moment. They are inherently weak to the Ramp decks, they have a lot of the issues of the Monument decks against Red, and their UW matchup wasn't ever that great and gets worse as they shift to cheaper removal. The two reasons to play this deck are Cunning Sparkmage to dominate mirrors and the possibility of broken things with Dredgevine. The standard builds just seem to me like they are Rock decks, and The Rock is only the right choice when your grinder cards can combine to nut draw people at times like Leech-Thrinax-Elf.

The WW decks are a joke right now. Quest for the Holy Relic is no Sovereigns. Not only does it require much more work, but it is a miserable topdeck as opposed to the best. If you want an aggressive White deck, look to something like Boros that maximizes Steppe Lynx. If you want to innovate one, start with Myrsmith. Both of those cards provide much more bang for your buck.

If you are looking for a larger takeaway message here, look at the trends of decks I've suggested. For an open metagame you want consistency and the ability to produce powerful threats early on. Once things stabilize, decks based on answering threats and going over the top or grinding out long term advantages can thrive and less consistent options can exploit their weaknesses, but when you can literally play against anything answers tend to fail and weaker aggressive strategies can be easily brickwalled.

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