Almost a year ago, I started Quiet Speculation. Shortly thereafter, I discovered the Black Lotus Project, in which eBay data, mined by the Magic Online Trading League, was being processed and visualized. Using the Google Finance API, it was very easy to see the movement of card prices in the same way we analyze equities in "real" finance. On the suggestion from Sam Stoddard, I'm going to have a look at some cards from Shards of Alara in order to better understand how having a long-term (2 years or so) strategy on trading can effect profitability. Data for Shards of Alara begins on Oct 28th 2008, which is less than a month after it hit shelves.

Sarkhan Vol

Sarkhan was responsible for the majority of the hype when ALA was released. Starting at a high of $25 and now at an all-time low in the $8 range, Sarkhan is the classic example of an over-hyped Mythic. At no point in the last year and a half was it correct to purchase a Sarkhan Vol for resale purposes. He has seen almost no competitive play whatsoever and despite Elspeth approaching $50, he remains in the Planeswalker Bargain Bin.

Elspeth, Knight Errant

With a chart resembling the opposite of Sarkhan Vol's, Elspeth has seen plenty of tournament play. She debuted around $16, which clearly indicates that she was playing second fiddle to the Dragon-loving Sarkhan. She quickly rose to around $24, at which time Sarkhan had just stabilized around $16. Oddly enough, they just switched places. Sarkhan's decline picked up some steam after mid-January. Elspeth also fell a little, but only to $20. She remained $20 until mid-October 2009, at which point she began shooting up. $25 by Thanksgiving, $28 by Christmas, and by Valentine's Day, she was a buck above $30. Between late April and now, she's gone up around another $5, weighing in at $36.

Ranger of Eos

I hate to say I told you so. Actually, no, I don't. I love to say that. I told you so! I've been preaching this card since day 1, and I'm finally vindicated. Around Halloween of 2009, Ranger of Eos began to climb. It had been bouncing between $1.50 and $2.50 for almost a year, and I was fairly sure there was no way it could stay so cheap. I was right. Its steady ascent stabilized in early April of 2010 at $8, meaning you could have quadrupled your money in half a year. Had you bought at the lowest point, $1.17, and sold at the highest, $7.55, you'd have made more than 5x . That's real money when you're talking about making $5 on every $1 you spend.

Cryptic Command

Since ALA is on the verge of rotation, people want to know when to sell their cards. The replacement, Scars of Mirrodin, will be released around early October 2010, so let's use Cryptic Command's chart to see if that's too late to sell off your Shards block staples. The day Zendikar came out, Cryptic Command was in the low $8's, from a high of $20. Yeah, that's a bit too late. We have to compare the utility of having the card to the cost of retaining it, so let's say that we don't want to sell Cryptic too soon, but we also want to get at least $15 for each one. June 10th is the approximate date it hit $15, and oddly enough, there's about a month-long plateau encompassing the month of June, where Crpytic Command stayed in the $15 area. Let's take another staple of that format, Reflecting Pool, and see what the chart says.

Reflecting Pool

Reflecting Pool topped out around $20 like Cryptic Command did, and it fell to $6.50, which is in the same ballpark as Cryptic. Reflecting Pool's price on June 10th? $20.02. July 10th? $17.13. August 10th? $13.05. By the time Zendikar came out, it was well below $10. It looks like Pool held its value longer, but then dropped sharply. Cryptic Command's drop between December and May might have been due to metagame changes and the Player Rewards promos being released, but that little plateau around May-June looks like a bit of stabilization before the big fall. I'll venture a guess to say that June 1st is when you really want to have all your soon-to-rotate stuff sold. That's awkward for dealers, because there's an entire summer of PTQs to which you must cater. For pure players, you can just borrow cards and that's what I suggest you do.

Shards of Alara

Now that we know approximately what to look for, let's have a look at 3 of Shards' top dogs and see what might be due for a correction in the coming months. There are a lot of variables here that can change our projections. First, Lorwyn block didn't have Mythic Rares. We haven't got the data to really draw conclusions about what happens to rotating Mythics, but for lack of a better option, I'm going to treat them as high-end rares with a bit of insulation due to collectability and scarcity.

Elspeth - At $35 now, a timely inclusion in a tier 1 deck has kept her price high. If URW Planeswalkers remains a force throughout the season, her price could be insulated from a big crash. However, it must eventually come, and when it does, it will probably be to the tune of a $15-20 drop. My post-rotation price for Elspeth? $20 on Scars release day.

Ranger of Eos - Antoine Ruel's invitational masterpiece sees a good amount of play in Extended, so it may take the route of Vendilion Clique. Steady decline throughout the summer, then a resurgance when Extended season rolls around. The card can only get better, so I'd keep an eye for the mid-Autumn dip and reload on them. They could shoot back from $2-3 in a heartbeat. I put them at $4 when Scars hits, but $8 again before March 2011.

Ajani Vengeant - At only $7.50 right now, there's no way this card is ever under $20 if it weren't a release promo. It doens't have far to drop - it's rare to see Planeswalkers under $5, but then again, we've never seen a Planeswalker rotate OUT of Standard before. Thus, he will probably only drop a couple bucks if he moves at all. Post-rotation price: $5. The card is too good to not see play in Extended, but no deck right now really needs 4 copies. This is on my short list of cards to buy as soon as they see play in older formats.

Wrapping it all up, the data we get from the coming months will be invaluable. We've never seen a Planeswalker leave a format before, we've never seen a Mythic Rare leave a format before, and we've no idea what M11 holds. If the Shards 'walkers replace the Lorwyn 'walkers, that's an entirely different set of data we need to understand. It seems unlikely, but they could potentially reprint Jace from Worldwake to replace Jace from Lorwyn, and do the same with Ajani Vengeant. That's just conjecture, but I cannot imagine the crapstorm that would occur. By and large, now is the time to start selling Shards-block money rares. The low-end stuff is probably not worth dumping, but the high dollar cards are where you can avoid taking a bath. For those of you who think "I'll just trade it later"? I still have 5 Cryptic Commands that I'll "trade later". Nice.