I was gearing up to write an article about Extended sometime after nationals. When I launched my blog last year, one of the first posts I made encouraged everyone to buy in on extended staples like Shocklands, Chalice of the Void, Engineered Explosives, Blood Moons and so on. It was pretty popular, and I know a few people managed to double their money. This new article was to be a more in depth piece, examining price levels during last year's extended and comparing them to now, giving everyone the opportunity to make the easiest trading profits ever.

Unfortunately, on Friday Wizards dropped the biggest bombshell on the community since the M10 rules changes. Surely you've heard by now, but for those of you who avoid all M:tG media except for my articles – and a special thankyou to you, my most dedicated fans – the 1st July Banned/Restricted changes also include some massive changes to the Extended format. Immediately after 1st July, Mirrodin, Kamigawa, Ravnica, and Coldsnap are rotating out, and Hypergenesis and Sword of the Meek are banned. Time Spiral and 10th Edition will rotate when Scars of Mirrodin comes out, meaning by the time we are playing Extended PTQs the format will be – M10, M11, Lorwyn/Shadowmoor block, Shards of Alara block, Zendikar block and Scars. Fortunately there is a silver lining to come out of my one lost article topic, not the least of which is this convenient replacement.

First, the Bad News

We have a brand new format to play with! While I will talk in broad terms about the new format, I'm sure more esteemed strategists like Chapin and LSV are going to sink their teeth into it so I will largely leave that to them, except where it intersects with my focus today. One thing I can write about without being entirely overshadowed is the financial outcomes of this announcement. So first thing first, many collectors have copped it. Shocklands have long been considered as good as currency, as they have been the foundation of Extended for years and with fetches sticking around there was no reason to expect that to change. With Umezawa's Jitte the GP promo this year, there was no suspicion that it might soon become largely irrelevant as a tournament card. Tarmogoyf, too, has maintained an enormous value on the back of high playability in extended and legacy. All of these will see a sharp drop in demand and a gradual slide in price, and traders heavily invested in these cards will understandably be disappointed.

As an aside there is a fiery public debate in Australia at the moment about a new tax on mining. The mining industry is, understandably, objecting to this new tax as it will impact on their profits. They are citing a concept called 'sovereign risk' which means that other mining companies will be more wary of investing, because of the risk that the government will make their investments unprofitable. The reason I bring this up is because card traders face the same questions with their investments. A card that may seem like a sure thing – like a Steam Vents at 5 tickets, while in season they go for 22 – can be turned sour by Wizards' intervention. Jace has hit 100 tickets online, but if R&D decides he is bad for standard and he is banned that will be slashed in half. This 'sovereign risk' is a concern, and has changed how I think about my trading – short term trades will be prioritised over long term ones, and staying liquid will be a major principle of all transactions.

On the Bright Side

But there is good news for traders, too! If cards were worth the same last week as they are this week, forever, you wouldn't be able to trade for Knight of the Reliquary before Zendikar's release, for instance. Change drives the card market, and without change it would be impossible to derive any advantage from trading besides hoodwinking new players. This dramatic a change brings a host of opportunities for astute traders to make a few extra tickets or build up a trade binder for next extended season. The mad MODO scramble on Friday is over, and we've already seen Faeries staples like Bitterblossom and Cryptic Command see huge increases. Online Mistbind Cliques are up 500%. Beyond Faeries generic good-stuff from Lorywn block like Reflecting Pools and filter-lands have been flying off the shelves. People are apparently mad-keen to play the much maligned Faeries and 5CC of yesteryear, possibly just for relief from the endless sea of Jaces, Bloodbraid Elf and Elspeths that make up current standard. So apart from these obvious, generic good buys which have already seen massive price spikes where else can we look for profitable opportunities?

Here we have a fairly comprehensive collection of decks from the LRW-M10-SOA format, which is the one that will be relevant by the time PTQ season rolls around (in tandem with the current standard, M11 and Scars block). I am just going to race through these as there is much more to talk about. The big decks, and their key cards, are as follows:

Faeries

The elephant in the room that we can't avoid discussing, Faeries was the bogeyman of Lorwyn standard as soon as it got its dainty little mitts on Bitterblossom. Crushingly depressing to play against, Faeries would get to four mana and never let you take a relevant action again. Nevertheless it has its devoted disciples – myself included – who will go flocking back to this incredibly obnoxious deck.

The key rares of the Faeries deck are – Bitterblossom, Thoughtseize, Cryptic Command, Secluded Glen, Sunken Ruins, Mutavault, Sower of Temptation and Vendilion Clique. Unfortunately, these are all well recognised and have been snapped up rapidly. Prices are already adjusting so you will have to look hard for a deal on these.

Kithkin

White Weenie is a perennial favourite, but the last time it was a tier-1 deck was during Lorwyn's time in standard. Apparently, the key to making your knights and soldiers an effective fighting force is to make them work well in a team – and be only four feet tall. This deck underwent many permutations with a number of token variants appearing leveraging the power of Spectral Procession and Windbrisk Heights.

The key rares of Kithkin decks of the period were – Figure of Destiny, Honor of the Pure, Windbrisk Heights, Stillmoon Cavalier, Ranger of Eos, Ajani Goldmane, and – you guessed it – Mutavault. Some of these can still be had at decent prices. Stillmoon Cavalier was a $10+ card in its day, as was Windbrisk Heights. Both can be had for a fraction of that price.

Cruel Control

Also known as Five Colour Control. This deck made a mockery of the colour pie with its Vivid land powered manabase, and played Cloudthresher alongside Cruel Ultimatum. Whether the manabase will stretch to include Khalni Hydra in the new extended, remains to be seen.

Key rares – Reflecting Pool, Cryptic Command, filter lands, Hallowed Burial (remember we didn't have Wrath of God or Day of Judgment at this point), Cruel Ultimatum, Great Sable Stag. Reflecting Pool is sure to be a key card in the new extended, letting people play whatever silly spells they like in the same deck. Hallowed Burial may actually stand up alongside it's slimmer, younger rival, as Day of Judgment can't deal with those annoyingly recursive Vengevines as well as persist cards and Demigod of Revenge. At a bit over a dollar from a tiny set, it may be worth speculating on. Great Sable Stag, as well, has faded after the threat he was custom-built to answer rotated out. With Faeries set to return to the big stage, Stag could be seeing his old level of play again, and a similarly high price.

BR Aggro

A lot different to the super-fast red decks of the modern day, this BR deck focused on powering out powerful, aggressive threats – but still having a board presence and some potential for the long game. Boggart Ram-Gang is the Hellspark Elemental that keeps on giving, and Demigod of Revenge was impersonating Vengevine before there was Vengevine.

Key Rares – Figure of Destiny, Graven Cairns, Demigod of Revenge, Dragonskull Summit. As always, the red beatdown deck is one of the cheapest in the format. I'd expect people to work elements of the Zendikar red deck into this one, and vice-versa. The new extended red will likely end up either with one Frankenstein deck or both a fast and a slow version, cherry picking the best of each from each set.

Merfolk

Seeing a surge late in the season was Merfolk. It seemed to have all the answers, packing a mean set of counterspells alongside an efficient army of synergistic fish and the exceptional Sygg, River Guide. This deck was like a friendlier version of Faeries, but no less effective for its less offensive cards.

Key Rares – Sygg, River Guide, Cryptic Command, Wanderwine Hub, Mutavault, Mystic Gate, Meddling Mage. Many of the key cards in this deck were uncommons, and by this point you should start to see just how universal Cryptic Command was. The 1UUU Instant is likely to define new extended, so if you are looking for a 'sure thing' investment, any cheap Cryptics you can find will fit the bill perfectly.

Elfball

A powerful combo deck that only emerged late in the day, this is quite similar to the recent extended Elves! combo. The plan is to vomit elves onto the table, make mana with Heritage druid, draw your library and then the winning should sort itself out.

Key rares – Primal Command, Ranger of Eos, Regal Force, Wooded Bastion, Elvish Archdruid, Sunpetal Grove. This deck could be a real player in the new format, as it keeps most of its tools and has a ludicrous number of elf-friendly cards from newer sets to choose from. Primal Commands are worth a look-in at virtual bargain-bin prices.

Time Sieve

Another combo deck, this one has even managed a recovery post-Lorwyn rotation with almost no loss in potency. Open the Vaults may not be returning in M11 but it will be legal in extended for some time to come, as will Borderposts, Elsewhere Flasks, Howling Mine, Time Warp, Tezzeret and whatever other garbage this damnable deck plays. (Yes, I did recently lose to it, how can you tell?)

Key Rares – Time Sieve, Tezzeret the Seeker, Time Warp, Open the Vaults, Howling Mine, Cryptic Command, Silence. Most of these cards can be had for basically a song, compared to most standard decks currently, and you could do a lot worse than buy the whole deck and learn to play it like a master before January rolls around. Tezzeret in particular is probably a great investment, with a new artifact block expected before the year is out.

Various Useful Synergies

Here are a few ideas off the beaten track to hopefully spur you into thinking up your own new decks. I have spent the last couple of months playing Emrakul without paying it's mana-cost in standard, and let me tell you, it is a great feeling on turn 7. It is likely even better on turn 4 when you flip it out from under your Windbrisk Heights during an attack by three Spectral Procession tokens. Hideaway lands present some very interesting opportunites with such a powerful spell to play, and all of them can be picked up fairly cheaply. The only one to avoid is Howltooth Hollow – the only card worth flipping from under that is Bog Hoodlums in your Crap draft.

Elves is one of the biggest tribal winners in the combination of Lorwyn block with M10 and Zendikar, with various playable decks springing up in past standard seasons – GB Elves and combo Elves, and Eldrazi Green spring immediately to mind. The list of Elf lords available in the new format is astounding – with Imperious Perfect, Elvish Archdruid, Joraga Warcaller, Elvish Champion (briefly), Heritage Druid, and Joraga Treespeaker available you can almost make a playable deck entirely of Elf lords and forests. I think the combo version is more likely to be successful than the GB rock version, though combining Chameleon Colossus and Abyssal Persecutor gives an imposing set of 4s.

Doran, the Siege Tower is another interesting effect that could make a comeback. He completely changes the board and is the largest threat available at 3 mana – sorry, Woolly Thoctar and Leatherback Baloth (Knight of the Reliquary, your case will be heard by the panel). He also conveniently pairs with the various walls in Rise of the Eldrazi – Wall of Omens can trade with Putrid Leech while Doran is on the battlefield. With two different fetchlands now available to find Murmuring Bosk the three colour manabase should be no trouble at all. If you can find Dorans and Bosks cheaply they are definitely worth picking up as I'd be surprised if nobody tries a GWB rock deck in new extended.

What to do about Standard Rotation?

The other big difference that the extended format change makes is in the transition of old sets out of standard. When Lorwyn went out of standard, all the big tourney cards took a major hit. It is very hard for a tournament deck to transition from standard to old extended, as the barrier of entry is so much higher. Rather than being a big fish in a small pond, a deck like Kithkin or Merfolk runs up against decks like Thopter/Depths or Zoo and just gets steamrolled game after game. This could change dramatically with the new format. Kithkin or Merfolk, or for a modern example, Jund or UW, no longer have to face 20/20 indestructible fliers on turn 2, and so they may well transition easily into the larger format. We will have to see how the format plays out, as it is entirely possible that the pros will break the format in exciting new ways even with the smaller card pool.

At the moment I will be hanging on to some strong standard cards rather than dumping them before Scars is released, especially ones that have already seen play in old Extended like Knight of the Reliquary. These are likely to remain more relevant than they have previously and it may occur that we don't see the huge post-standard sell off in October. Who knows, if stores start running FNMs of new-extended , as I suspect Wizards wants them to, these cards may even go up due to the limited supply!

So I, for one, am very excited about the new format. Fellow traders, don't fret. While you may be mourning your Shockland values, there are plenty of opportunities to get on the next wave of staples. Read every decent strategy piece you can to get an understanding of what is going to be good. During PT Amsterdam, stay glued to the coverage – Baneslayer Angel doubled in price and Dark Depths surged several hundred % around PT Austin last year, and there are countless more undiscovered gems in the new format. And just quietly, if you find anyone dumping their shocklands in a fit of pique, it will be worth your while to grab them and squirrel them away for a rainy day. Overextended – an eternal format comprising Masques up until today – has been heavily rumoured, and I think last week's announcement makes it even more likely. If Legacy players jump ship wholesale they are going to want replacements for their Revised duals, and the shocklands are the next best thing. Thanks for reading, and please share your thoughts in the comments.