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Examining the Value of Rise of the Eldrazi (Part 2)

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If you missed Part 1, you can read it here.

Echo Mage, $1 - Down

Bulk rare, and so on, and such and such.

Eldrazi Conscription, $2.50 - Stable

While I doubt it's constructed-worthy this is the biggest aura we've ever seen, and there are all sorts of casual decks just begging to jam this in. If I manage to get a hold of one it is going straight in my Slippery Bogle deck, and Sovereigns of Lost Alara is another card that pairs very well with this one. This casual/Johnny/Timmy appeal should see it maintain its current price.

Eldrazi Temple, $8.50 - Stable

This card's value depends entirely on how universally the Eldrazi cards are adopted as finishers, as Temple can go in just about any deck that can afford a colourless land and would like to play some 10-drop creatures or colourless Wraths. This land is definitely not restricted to Eldrazi-only decks like Eye of Ugin, but it can fit in anywhere. My assessment is the Eldrazi will be wide-spread enough to sustain this price, and maybe even sneak up to ten dollars.

Gelatinous Genesis, $0.75 - Stable

There will be a deck with a lot of green mana after Rise of the Eldrazi is released, of this I'm certain. There is a lot of competition for places as finishers – Wolfbriar Elemental, Omnath, an Eldrazi and Terastodon all spring to mind – however Gelatinous Genesis seems useful for its ability to slot in at various points on your curve. If all this comes together, and if Genesis proves to be the best use of big mana, then it might creep up to a couple of bucks. That's a lot of ifs for not a great payoff, so leave this one alone for now unless you just love making oozes.

Gigantomancer, $1 - Down

8 mana 1/1s do not constructed cards make. Bulk!

Gravitational Shift, $1.50 - Down

This is an interesting effect for a deck that doesn't currently exist, and as such it's headed for the dollar bins.

Guul Draz Assassin, $2.50 - Up

Cunning Sparkmage has showed how powerful recurring removal can be even on a creature, and played right the Assassin can be online as early as turn 3. Being the buy-a-box promo has a fairly negligible effect on the supply of a rare, and if vampire decks want this card it will probably climb to five dollars, ala Kalastria Highborn and Malakir Bloodwitch.

Hedron Field Purists, $1 - Down

These rare clerics with damage prevention abilities haven't made a constructed impact in recent years, see Guardian Seraph and Battletide Alchemist. Purists is powerful in limited as it gives your creatures a virtual toughness boost but it is unlikely a constructed deck is willing to invest in this effect.

Hedron Matrix, $1 - Stable

While this is a bulk rare, it has a powerful, unique effect that should appeal to mega-Timmy at kitchen tables everywhere, and equipment are quite popular as a class of cards in general.

Hellion Eruption, $0.75 - Stable

Six mana spells need to win you the game. If the tokens had haste I'd reconsider this card.

It That Betrays, $5 - Down

This card wins! And then it wins… more. Great for slow multiplayer games but I expect it will drop to half the current price, as competitive decks could just play Kozilek instead.

Kazandu Tuskcaller, $0.75 - Stable

I love me some elephants, and the art on this card is just awesome. But if I'm going to sink a lot of mana into a leveler I want it to be bigger than a 1/1. Seriously though Mike Bierek, if you're reading this, I'd love a signed copy of this card! Great work!

Keening Stone, $1.50 - Stable

You wacky mill players, you never give up, do you? The Legendary Eldrazi single-handedly hose mill in standard but a certain segment of the community thirsts for milling cards, and that should see this stay marginally above bulk prices.

Kor Spiritdancer, $2.50 - Stable

Maybe a bit optimistic, but 2 is significantly less than the 3 on Mesa Enchantress and I could see an aura deck centred on this card and Spreading Seas blipping onto the standard radar. The general terribleness of auras is working against Spiritdancer, but the potential for card disadvantage is neatly negated by this 0/2. Hyena Umbra makes her a 3/4 first strike, by the way. I'm just saying.

Lightmine Field, $3 - Down

While personally I'm a fan of this card I can't see it happening in the big leagues. Your opponent can easily play around it and many of the creatures in standard are not particularly fussed by a couple of points of damage. I would rather just Wrath of God. Of course, this is just kicking Hellspark Elemental while he's down.

Lord of Shatterskull Pass, $0.75 - Stable

While this guy is better than he looks at first, he still isn't constructed worthy.

Magmaw, $0.75 - Stable

If this guy could sacrifice lands I would be singing his praises as the savior of Red. As is, I don't think red decks are going to have enough fuel to feed to the Magmaw to overcome the many obstacles that have been thrown in their way this set.

Momentous Fall, $6 - Up

To hear Kelly Reid tell it this card will draw you cards, gain you life, do your laundry, AND your tax return. All for just four mana! I haven't tested it myself but everything I've been hearing is good, and with green coming out very well from this set I think this will be a significant card in the new standard. If we can detour to magical christmas land for a moment, use this end of turn on Vengevine, draw four cards, play two of the creatures you've drawn the following turn and get back your sacrificed elemental. Seems good to me!

Mortician Beetle, $0.75 - Stable

Knucklebone Witch, Bloodhall Ooze, Mortician Beetle. Every block has one of these cards, and they're all unplayable in tournament magic. I'm sure it'll go into the Grave Pact/It That Betrays theme decks people are already concocting, but that's about it.

Mul Daya Channelers, $6 - Down

Down should not be taken as disapproval of the card, but rares are not as expensive as they used to be and I think this will be more like $4-$5 soon after release. This card is certain to be tried in every deck playing green as it is potentially awesome, if you can overcome the randomness. Of course, both effects are good, so you probably won't be too upset with either the mana ability or the extra P/T.

Near-Death Experience, $1 - Stable

I don't like alternate win condition cards, mostly because I don't like multiplayer combo decks. If you want to play solitaire, do it on your own time! Where was I? Oh yes, bulk rare.

Nomad's Assembly, $1 - Down

Conqueror's Pledge is guaranteed to get you 5 guys, which spikes will take every time over something that might get you more, or might get you nothing on an empty board.

Pestilence Demon, $0.75 - Stable

I am currently listening to a mashup of Queen and Motley Crue. If I appear to be exhilarated I assure you it's due to the song and not the constructed applications of Pestilence Demon.

Rage Nimbus, $0.75 - Stable

I really want to combo this card with Kazuul, Tyrant of the Cliffs but I don't imagine that will tear up standard.

Recurring Insight, $0.75 - Stable

It's Ozzy Osborne meets Rick Springfield now. How often is this card going to be better than Mind Spring? Not often enough.

Renegade Doppelganger, $1.50 - Up

Going out on a limb and saying that this card will be broken at some point. Phyrexian Dreadnought is the first thing that springs to mind but with so many creatures available in magic it will take a long time to sort through all the possibilities of this card. If the Japanese combo syndicate start buying these up in bulk, make sure to jump on board before the price heads up.

Repay in Kind, $0.75 - Stable

Don't mention Cruel Ultimatum around Repay in Kind, it's kind of a sore spot for him.

Realms Uncharted, $7 - Down

This is a decent tutor for lands, but that's all. Even if this is played I only see it being worth $4 or so. Is this really what you want to Bloodbraid in to? Comparisons to Gifts Ungiven are valid in that they are superficially similar, but so are Demonic Tutor and Sylvan Scrying. Could move upwards for next year's extended, so keep your ear to the ground for Life From the Loam decks around then.

Spawnsire of Ulamog, $2.50 - Stable

One of the more fun Eldrazi, I really hope Spawnsire makes it in constructed. While he probably won't manage that his cool combination of abilities should see him hold this price level for the foreseeable future.

Sphinx Bone Wand, $0.75 - Stable

My pick for worst rare of the set. 7 mana do-nothing artifacts are usually a good bet for that.

Sphinx of Magosi, $2 - Down

This card seems like all upside – a 6/6 flier for 6 in blue that has the 'drawback' of allowing you to turn mana into cards. That said it fails the Doom Blade test which, for a 6 mana creature, spells constructed doom. I really want this card to be good but with Shrouded or immediately card drawing rival Sphinxes at similar mana costs, I don't think this guy is going to make it.

Splinter Twin, $0.75 - Stable

There once was a card good in limited, But in constructed it… I got nothing. Bulk.

Student of Warfare, $8.50 - Stable

This card is unbelievably good. Turn one this guy, turn two Stoneforge Mystic getting Basilisk Collar, turn 3 swing with a 3/3 first strike deathtouch lifelink? This is what white weenie decks are going to be doing post-RoE, and then on turn 4 they are going to Ranger of Eos and get two more Students. I like where this is heading. Being a precon-rare will hold down the price for a while, at least until all the intro packs sell out, so pick these up before too long if white weenie is your kinda strategy.

Surrakar Spellblade, $1 - Down

Ophidian hasn't been good enough for a long time. Forget this guy.

Tajuru Preserver, $2 - Up

This is a potentially strong sideboard card against All Is Dust, Consuming Vapors, and the Eldrazi, and it is tutorable as a one of with Nissa Revane. The effect is also unique and I think this card is good value at its current price.

Thought Gorger, $0.75 - Up

I think this guy is a sleeper with some potential. If you curve out and drop this guy on turn 4 discarding two lands you have an aggressive creature who - when he dies - will immediately rebuild your hand. His biggest downside is that he is a horrible topdeck in an empty hand, but just as often he'll give you something to do with late land draws. One to watch.

Training Grounds, $3 - Stable

I do like the infinite mana combo Team Oz has come up with (Training Grounds, Filigree Sages, Khalni Gem) and I'm sure that's just the beginning of this card's potential. That said the current standard environment has not been friendly to combo so far, so this card seems fairly priced as is.

Tuktuk the Explorer, $2 - Stable

As far as I can see the optimal line of play for Tuktuk is to play him, put your opponent off attacking on your third/fourth turn, then on the fifth turn sacrifice him to Sarkhan the Mad for two 5/5s. The question is, is that good enough for standard? All I know is my gut says maybe.

Umbra Mystic, $1.50 - Down

Casual appeal only, though putting Armored Ascension on your Umbra Mystic is pretty sick.

World at War, $0.75 - Stable

These sort of cards are invariably casual only, as if you don't have a good attack in the first place this card is no help at all.

Phew! All the rares and mythics covered. As far as the commons/uncommons go, Not Of This World seems like it could be good somewhere, whether protecting Eldrazi in standard or Marit Lage tokens in extended. It also makes a counterspell available to every colour, which is interesting. Oust is a powerful removal option for white, Survival Cache is a potentially strong option for white control, and Wall of Omens is deserving of its massive hype. Deprive is the closest thing we've had to Counterspell, keep an eye on Chapin and Wafo-Tapa to see what they can do with this. Mnemonic Wall has potential combo applications, and I love Shared Discovery and hope it works somewhere. Inquisition of Kozilek is a worthy partner to Duress & Thoughtseize, Kiln Fiend is a powerful engine card, Staggershock is a burn spell with constructed applications, and Ancient Stirrings is a powerful Impulse-like card. Joraga Treespeaker is something I can't wait to use to power out big green fatties, Evolving Wilds is great news for pauper, and Prophetic Prism may reinvigorate the Time Sieve deck by itself.

Overall it feels like red got let down this set – besides Kargan Dragonlord – while every other colour picked up some very powerful tools. Green in particular has really got a shot in the arm with Vengevine, Awakening Zone, Momentous Fall, Mul Daya Channelers and Joraga Treespeaker. The set is high on playables, especially at mythic, and while the bulk rares are better than they normally are they're still bulk rares and they seem to be out in force.

I hope you've enjoyed this look at future card prices, and if you disagree with me – which I'm sure you do on at least one card – give me an earful in the comments. I'd also like to hear of any great trades or bargain buys you've made on Rise cards, so get typing!

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