Continuing the theme from last week, we're going to keep tracking our Extended portfolio. In the last article, we spent about $100 on some Lorywn-block cards that will hopefully pay us off. A few of our speculations, like Ancient Amphitheater, were penny stock style investments. These cards can jump by many orders of magnitude since they are so inexpensive. Though we do not expect them to "hit", there is a decent chance we will make a lot of money for virtually nothing. Combined with solid, blue-chip style stocks, they round out the portfolio nicely.

Adding another really "out there" speculation, I'm giong to put a few dollars into Madrush Cyclops. The mana bases in Extended can easily support this guy, and I could see him being backbreaking in a slower Jund build designed to grind out mirror matches. The real reason I like the Cyclops is Genesis Wave. I'm going to venture a guess that some Genesis Wave deck will see play, and Madrush Cyclops lets the deck kill off the top with relative ease. at 5 for a US Dollar, it seems wrong not to buy 20+. Let's put 20 on our ledger and see what happens.

I'm surprised at how inexpensive Bloodbraid Elf is. We can easily find as many copies as we want under $2. Looking at historical data, Bloodbraid Elf can usually sell for $3.50 in-season. It is not unreasonable to trade them above $5 on game day. Buying in at $1.75 seems very smart, and it seems difficult to lose money on Bloodbraid Elf. Jund seems to be very, very good in Extended. No surprise there. The only surprise is, once again, how cheap its centerpiece card has gotten. I'm putting 16 on our tab, since I am assigining these a very low risk: 85% to hit a target of $4.

At around the same price, poor forgotten Thornling sits sadly in a corner. When Bant Mythic was popular, he traded well above $5, and as I Recall, Bant had a baseline good match-up against underprepared Jund. Thornling is very tough for Jund to handle, especially if they are caught unaware. For $2, I'll buy 5 of these Mythics. I'd like to move them at $5 around Grand Prix: Atlanta, so that's where I'll set the target. It's not a sure thing, but I'm confident I'll get a return on my money. I'll set the risk at 75% to hit target.

In light of the formalization of the Commander/EDH format, I have been scouting out cards that are powerful when games start at 40 life. The first that comes to mind? Magister Sphinx. I can often turn 3 this guy in my Sen Triplets deck, and a 5/5 flier that almost kills your opponent is an amazing tool for ending games out of nowhere. They can be had for a quarter each, and even if the target is set modestly at $1, we can probably make money. Since we don't know how the market will evolve now that EDH is mainstream, I'll risk it at 65%.

Time Warp should go on our short list too. Pyromancer Ascension is the real deal, and almost any version of the deck will be using 4 copies of Time Warp. These are getting hard to find, since M10 Mythics weren't the most abundant cards printed. $6 is a lot to pay for Time Warp, but I'm confident we'll get at least $10 back on them. I put the risk at 80% because I've seen Time Warp sell for $12 multiple times in my life, and this is the perfect place for such a spike to happen again.

There's another card that I flip every single time it makes waves: Renegade Doppelganger. I've flipped this card quite a few times since it came out, and it seems to predictably spike every few months. It's overdue, like some ominous Earthquake-prone Fault Line, for a big one. It's possible that they hit $2, but I'm sticking the target at $1, just to be conservative. I dont think there's much risk here, but I put risk at 75% to reflct the chance that there might just not be a home for it any time soon. It seems probable that the card will rise again, so I'd like to be prepared when it does.

Copperline Gorge and Blackcleave Cliffs are criminally underpriced at $1.50. They are creeping closer to two as I write this, so if you're not acting quickly, adjust your numbers accordingly. These two lands have replaced the M10/M11 dual lands in Jund, and as such will be in high demand shortly. Many Jund lists are running a 2/4 split of these two lands, one way or another, so I'm adding 8 to our order of each. Targeting them at $3 is definitely too low, but I'm giving them a 90% chance to hit $3. Were I put to a guess, I'd say their shot at hitting $5 is about 50%, not enough to give me confidence like $3 and 90%.

Great Sable Stag is the last card I'm going to add this week. Once again due to the dominance of Jund, this staple against Faeries is dirt-cheap in the dollar bin. I Recall this selling for $10 as US Nationals in 2009, and I can see that happening on-site at Grand Prix: Atlanta in late January. I don't expect to cash out at $10, though it would be grand to do so, but I expect to make at least 200% on Stags. I'm setting the target at $3, with a risk of 80%. I may be overconfident in the card's utility, but I don't think that I'm off by much. It's hard to believe that Stag won't see any play from now until the end of the season.

Here's what we have for the moment. Nothing from last week has made any sudden moves that would cause us to adjust value, but we could see some breakout cards at Worlds this weekend.

A few words before we part, about cards I didn't add to the ledger but I have my eye on:

Demigod of Revenge: I am seeing him in multiple Jund lists, but I expect this number to Shrink once control players begin packing Path and Condemn. They are around $4 right now, and could see a modest jump to $6+. I'm not excited to buy Demigods, but I'll surely pick up a few in trades when the getting is good.

Admonition Angel: I've been hearing a lot of grumbling about this card and no results. Many of my shop's FNM patrons have been playing a deck with this card and Emeria Angel to great success, but I have to Wonder if that success is aberrant or localized.

That's it for this week. Once again, discuss the portfolio choices in the comments and let me know what you think I should buy or sell next week. We will surely see movement after Worlds' Extended portion is over, so be sure to glue yourself to the coverage all weekend! If you're going to Grand Prix: Atlanta or Pro Tour: Paris, drop me a line. I'll be at both, and I'm looking for lodging in Paris. Let me know if you'll be at either. I'll be wearing our shiny new black and grey Quiet Speculation polo shirts.