Be sure to read Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

While States didn't go exactly as planned for me, big tournaments after a set release is still a fun time as a Magic player. You see, I'm a bit of a forum rat. I spend too much time at the office on Magic sites, parsing decklists and reading all the pros opinions on the new developments. Getting to read Top 8 lists from over 50 States is like having a package of chocolate delivered to my door; it's a great excuse to sit around the house all day in pajamas and indulge, but by the end of it all my head hurts and I'm pretty sure I put on 10 pounds.

In the end, there's a lot for a Magic player to learn from States, so let's see what lessons we can take away, as well as several decklists to peruse at your pleasure:

Blue-based Control is more resilient than I thought

During my early Scars testing I came to the realization that in a vacuum the Primeval Titan decks (Valakut and Eldrazi) are the most powerful decks. They remind me of Mythic Conscription in the sense that if both decks just want to do their own thing with minimal interaction, the Primeval Titan decks are usually doing the most powerful things.

The upshot of this is that U/W, at least at the time of rotation, was mostly incapable of dealing with either deck. You couldn't counter their guys without a fear of being Summoning Trap'd, and U/W's weak removal suite meant it had a difficult time removing threats once they hit the board. It felt strange that such a strong deck loaded with powerful cards might actually be a bad metagame choice.

Defying my expectations, blue decks have flourished, although not necessarily in the traditional U/W form we've gotten used to this year. Sure, there's been a few familiar lists such as Shaun McLaren's 1st place Walls, Walkers, and Counters list from Alberta, Canada [link] or Gegard Fabiano's Tap-Out Style, piloted by Justin Richardson to a win the Quebec States [link], but the real new developments have been the U/R, U/B, and U/w/r builds.

U/R Destructive Force has used Red's spot removal, Blue's counters, and artifact based acceleration like Everflowing Chalice to hang in there before a Destructive Force resets the board. At that point, the several turns of draw-go allows the U/R player to win with Jace, The Mind Sculptor's fateseals or a Frost Titan that hung around. Strong against the variety of land-based strategies, it's hard for a Valakut deck to get 6 Mountains and multiple Valakuts when they are forced to sack 5 lands. Similarly, casting 10+ mana aliens becomes daunting as well, especially when Overgrown Battlement, Oracle of Mul Daya, Joraga Treespeaker, and other related mana dorks don't survive the 5-damage Earthquake.

U/w/r, like the list I took to States, deal with the other side of the coin. Numerous aggro decks have popped up, like Elves that just took down this weekend's SCG Open as well as Brian Boss's Missouri State Champ list [link], Quest for the Holy Relic/Argentum Armor White Weenie like the one that took down Idaho States, piloted by Jeremiah Edwards [link], and varieties of RDW, highlighted by the Assault Strobe variants that terrorized various States, and took down New Hampshire in the hands of Brian Siu [link] meant that to many people, tapping out on turn 4 for a 2-counter Everflowing Chalice was akin to suicide. U/w/r got to run Lightning Bolt, Pyroclasm, Day of Judgment, plus various blue counterspells to basically 1-for-1 these decks that relied on having several permanents in play until they were out of gas and threats, then putting the game away with a Wurmcoil Engine, Frost Titan, Baneslayer Angel, for just a good ol' fashioned Celestial Colonnade.

My favorite development has been the U/B Trinket Control subtype, with the marquee list being piloted by Nick Spagnolo, which you can read about here on ManaNation.com. I had been tweaking with Black in my brews, because I felt that having the option to counter Cultivate OR kill Overgrown Battlement with the same open mana felt like the position I wanted to be in to combat Primeval Titan decks. Nick one-up'd me though, by replacing Sea Gate Oracle with a Trinket Mage package that solved many of U/W's old problems. Brittle Effigy gave you a bail-out when a big threat stuck, Everflowing Chalice allowed you to keep up with ramp decks when you needed to, and Elixir of Immortality gave you inevitability in the drawn out control mirrors.

In the end, none are perfect for any meta, but U has proven to be a far more difficult color to deal with than expected. Depending on what you expect to face there is a list out there for you, proving the format won't be a oppressed by a single archetype of Jace, The Mind Sculptor.

Aggro comes in many colors

I thought that RDW was going to be the primary aggro deck post-rotation and to an extent I was right; it was the 4th most played deck and the most played aggro deck. That said, the aggro field was much more diversified than I expected. Elf Aggro was the 5th most-played deck, Kor Weenie 9th. Overall, aggro decks made up around 20% of the field and took down 6 State titles.

Tribal strategies seemed to be in vogue, led by Ezuri, Renegade Leader and Copperhorn Scout's synergy. Playing out a ton of mana elfs, then untapping all of them, especially the Elvish Archdruid, then spending the excess on reusable Overruns is too much for the slower decks to handle.

RDW was primarily populated by non-Tribal variants, but some ventured into Goblin land, with a 6th place finish by Mark Nemeth in New Mexico [link] playing more traditional Goblins, and others tried a bit of splashing artifacts to abuse Kuldotha Rebirth, like 3rd place finisher Richard Gartner up in Canada [link]. I was surprised to see the absence of Warren Instigator in both lists, but it makes sense considering that without big targets like Siege-Gang Commander, the value gained from Warren Instigator was simply too low to include over guaranteed threats like Kargan Dragonlord.

Even everyone's favorite Tribal sort-of deck, Vampires, made an appearance with a win in New Mexico under the guidance of Chris Reed [link]. If this is the direction Vampires moves towards in the future, then it must be mentioned how fundamentally different this build is compared to previous incarnations. Vampires was mostly an aggro-control deck for a long time, deploying various early threats that if unchecked could steal a game with Vampire Nocturnus, or just put the opponent on their backfoot before a Mind Sludge put them out of the game.

This new build is a bit different, and it reminds me somewhat of Affinity, with the Arcbound Ravager / Disciple of the Vault combo where if you let your guard down for a second, it could generate a huge burst of damage while you were tapped out. This Vampires lists seems to abuse Kalastria Highborn, Bloodthrone Vampire, and Bloodghast to pump out damage without putting too many threats on the board, avoiding being blown out by a Pyroclasm or Day of Judgment.

While Vengevine strategies popped up here and again, it's time seems to be on the backburner for now. U-based control isn't as reliant on Day of Judgment anymore and with various aggro decks having overwhelming tricks like Quest for the Holy Relic and Ezuri, Fauna Shaman/Vengevine looks downright fair. Turn 3 double Vengevine (a reasonable ‘nut-draw' for such decks) doesn't seem to outrace or trump Turn 3 Argentum Armor or Turn 3 Primeval Titan. If the format becomes dominated by blue control decks, then our favorite green Pokemon may bail us out, but for now it seems to be on the backburner as the most popular Fauna Shaman deck, a U/G/R archetype that looks an awful lot like Boss Naya with Trinket Mage replacing Stoneforge Mystic, failing to place higher than 5th at any States.

That said, maybe there's a glimmer of hope: a Bant deck run by Vu Phan took down the Arizona event [link] and it cuts the Cunning Sparkmage and moves the Trinket Mage package to the board to make room for main deck Mana Leaks, which I'm sure was important against the control decks in the field.

Combo is deader than disco

Traditional combo decks, that is. I think the day of Pyromancer's Ascension, Runeflare Trap, etc are behind us for the foreseeable future. Pyromancer's Ascension, the most played combo deck before rotation, took a tumbling plunge, with only one deck making the Top 8 of any States, out in Prince Edward Island, Canada [link] matching other *cough* widely popular archetypes such as Grixis Mimic Vat, Mono Black Control, and Mono Blue Proliferate. Not the best company to be in.

Despite an awful performance, the archetype still has a few notable voices. Mike Flores and Patrick Chapin have both recently written on Ascension, calling it their preferred combo deck. Why didn't their urging translate to more placements, especially when it's been proven that people are willing to sleeve up their decks with no testing because they are trustworthy names? One explanation is that both of them are better at Magic than I'll be in ten lifetimes (true), and thus the deck is likely so hard to pilot than the players who did sleeve it up found themselves outside the final tables.

Also, I think it's because for all intents and purposely, Valakut IS the primary Combo deck in the format. It requires assembling several permanents in play and usually a lynchpin creature to ‘go off'. Yet unlike the combo decks we're used to, it have several lines of play to victory, whether it's Valakut, The Molten Pinnacle itself, or just a turn 5 Avenger of Zendikar, or simply beating down with a 6/6 trampling Titan, allowing it to adapt to the game state and naturally dodge cards that target linear strategies like Memoricide, which would absolutely stone a Runeflare Trap deck.

Secondly, it has the natural advantage most combo decks have (beats control), but takes it a step further with Summoning Trap. Unlike Polymorph, which had to wait several turns until it's hand was full of counterspells and had tons of mana to try and force a Polymorph through, Valakut can run it's creature out there without fear because unless the control player gets the sick read that they don't have Summoning Trap, textbook play would dictate you don't counter it because a turn 2 Titan or Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre is pretty unbeatable.

This adds to the fact that while Pyromancer's Ascension is incredibly hard to play, I could probably train a bright monkey to run Valakut passably well. Not to insult Valakut players because obviously there is skill to any game of Magic, it also doesn't take a genius to go Explore -> Cultivate -> Primeval Titan / Summoning Trap K THANX BAI. In a matchup between equally skilled players, I think Valakut wins because of it's straightforward nature. There's simply fewer options and fewer board states that challenge you, and for that reason I think combo decks will be on the backburner because Valakut is like a combo deck on training wheels.

In summary

States is a great event, allowing for players to get a feel for the meta without having to wait on a big GP or Pro Tour. Scars of Mirrodin's tournament presence has been felt, I can't think of a single deck that hasn't incorporated at least some aspect of the set so far.

Several notable players claimed Scars was a weak set for Constructed, but already several archetypes have spawned that simply wouldn't exist without Scars cards. Elves and Kor Weenie couldn't function without the critical lynchpins of Ezuri and Argentum Armor. Wurmcoil Engine has freed control decks from it's reliance on Baneslayer Angel to allow U/x decks to flourish, even seeing play in a B/R control deck that finished 2nd in North Carolina [link], giving two colors that desperately needed an end game something to close the door with.

What that says to me is that maybe we aren't as good at evaluating cards as we think we are. Tune in next week for an article on card evaluations and when even the best players get it wrong.