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Magic Economics - Rise of the Eldrazi

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The Rise of the Eldrazi pre-release is fast approaching, and with great new stuff being spoiled every day, it's hard to keep track of what's what. There are a few cards on my radar this week, for various reasons. Some are on my list because they're undervalued, overvalued, or just interesting, and one card has me jonesing for a shiny foreign version. This set has some definite sleepers, but a lot more disappointments. This has been a trend in the last year or so; cards spike on hype during presale season but drop sharply once people realize they have no real constructed value at that point in time. That's what we have to watch out for and wade through. Let's get right to the list!

Eldrazi Conscription - Auras are rarely good, but this one is so much larger than life that it is commanding a bit of attention. It's probably OK to assume the Eldrazi spells are going to be cast for 2-3 mana less than "Retail", this is at best a 5-drop enchantment that makes your creature a red-zone terror. It still has the fundamental problem of the Aura, unlike the Umbra cycle - you're going to 2-for-1 yourself sometimes. Undoubtably someone on Magic Online will attempt to cheat these great enchantments out with Lost Sovereigns of Alara, but the "combo" is expensive and not a game-winner nor easy to protect. This is probably not Good Card but it will hold some value to casual players and collectors who love the art.

Gideon Jura - Gideon has already been anointed with the mantle of Chase Rare, pre-selling for $30+ across the web. The planeswalker is definitely as powerful as advertised, giving Aggro and Control strategies alike a toolbox of very useful effects. Whether he is actually played in Tier 1 decks seems irrelevant - the card is such a headliner that it will retain its lofty price tag.

Student of Warfare - I don't think this guy is getting enough love. Stop comparing levelers to Figure of Destiny - they're not the same. At all. No one thinks Fact or Fiction is the same as Covenant of Minds. That said, this card's as close as we get to Figure of Destiny. As a card that's effectively a 3/3 First Strikers on turn 2 a lot of the time? Wouldn't White Weenie decks play that? For another 5 easy payments of [W], you get a monster that can end games in a flash. The worst time to draw this is on Turn 2, but its ability to fit your curve at any point in the game will keep it relevant long after your other early drops have lost relevance. These started pre-selling for around $5, but are getting more respect now, having crept up to the $8 range. This is appropriate until this card finds a home, at which point it can certainly go higher.

Wall of Omens - This card will be worth more than 80% of the rares in the set. Warranted or not, it will be true. The foil will be at least $10, as the card is an instant classic.

Consume the Meek - It's something Black decks have been needing for a while - a board-sweeper. The key to this card is that it doesn't care about the size of the creature, only the cost. That means that it handles a wide variety of Standard's best threats. Add in the fact that it's an instant, and you've got a very valuable card. Mono-black decks will surely need this, and we might soon see the rise of some "big mana" black decks with cards like Nirkana Revenant and some Eldrazi Spawn cards. I'm going to own a playset for myself on the pre-release day, and many more for the store.

Hellcarver Demon - Why is this pre-selling for over $6? At 3BBB, it's as splashable as Sorin Markov, except without the raw power. The fact that it needs to connect in combat, not just be declared, makes it even worse. Of course the ability is fantastic, but it doesn't win the game outright like a protected Baneslayer does. It wins the game when it goes off, but for 6 mana, you need less uncertainty. Trade this away at the Pre-Release.

Kargan Dragonlord - This Mythic earns its keep. As a 2/2 for 2, sligh decks (the ones the kids call "RDW" nowadays) will play it for its upside. In the early game scenario, he does not fit the curve precisely, but since his level cost is low, it can be tailored to fit your curve. It could be an important card for sligh decks, but it doesn't solve any of the fundamental problems of the archetype. As such, a price around $10 is correct.

Lord of Shatterskull Pass - I cannot see this being better than Quenchable Fire in decks that would play it. It'll get some love for being a rare leveler and the release foil, but it's not a terribly relevant card for tournament play.

TukTuk the Explorer - Legendary Goblins are fun, but for the Spike crowd, it's not all that good. TukTuk asks the question, "Can you deal with a 3-mana Raging Goblin"? The answer will often be "yes". It's not a 5/5 for 3. It's a Raging Goblin you can never kill. Rah.

Khalni Hydra - Oh, look, it's kind of like Convoke. In a set that features some truly spectacular fatties, including those with their own brand of Luxury Mana Acceleration, you're not selling me, or anyone, on an 8/8 for 8 with Convoke. Trample doesn't impress me anymore. Way over-rated.

Momentous Fall - This card can be a major tempo swing. Some discussion on its inclusion in Jund have taken place, but it might not be good enough. The fact that it's an instant is what will eventually justify the card's use. It's great card-draw in almost any deck that can cast a 2GG spell, and it can swing races all by itself. Sacrificing a Sprouting Thrinax seems insane here in the Jund mirror. It's already pre-selling well, so consider acquiring them on opening day. Don't pay a premium, but you'll likely find players undervaluing them.

Mul Daya Channelers - I've already pre-ordered a lot of these. Green is really getting some tools, and considering that Jund is fully capable of adjusting to support a heavier Green involvement, anything in the color has to be considered. As a 3-drop creature, natural Bloodbraid scenarios come to mind. Knowing the top card of your deck can be a very valuable thing as Jund, and the deck runs enough creatures to make a 5/5 threat very real. It also gives you massive value on playing a high land count, and even lets you get a bit of extra juice from your fetch lands. I admit I am fully in love with this card, and I might be wrong, but I think this is going to be a very, very important card. Maybe not this season, but it is very, very good.

Eldrazi Temple - It really chaps my ass that this card is a rare. It's an obvious 4-of for any deck running Eldrazi spells, and considering All Is Dust is a board-clearing nuke playable in any deck that so desires, it will be in high demand. The value of this card is tied directly to the tournament viability of the Eldrazi spells as a whole, so a $10 starting tag is good.

Cast Through Time - I want one, Japanese and foil, for my EDH deck. That is all.

Vengevine - New as of tonight, Vengevine feels like a very powerful card. It's not going to be triggering often, as a deck like Jund probably doesn't want another 4-drop. Don't mistake this for a Green Bloodghast, because casting two creatures is different than making a land drop. My snap-judgment is that these are not the $20+ cards that initial opinion believes them to be. It needs to be re-evaluated when more of the set is known, but it certainly has potential.

It feels like many cards in this set are above average, and thus the initial EV will be high. Expect a lot of the cards to drop sharply as the hype is overtaken by lack of demand. That has been the case with many of the cards from recent set. Keep reading as opening day draws near to gear up for the Pre-Release.

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