Worlds certainly shook things up, didn't it? Outside of Conley Woods' Necrotic Ooze deck, there weren't any really insane shooting stars over the weekend, but analysis of the data we have access to will show us where we are going right and going wrong. I'm using the Extended portion of Worlds, which was six rounds deep. WOTC published decklists from the 4-1-1 and better records, but to tighten up our data a bit, I only looked at the 5-1 and better lists. I've finished 9th on tiebreakers at X-1-1 to give those decks any respect! Just kidding, of course, but we have to draw the line somewhere, and at X-1, I'm fine drawing it right there.

To simplify numbers a bit, I've simplified things. If a deck had more than 2 of a card, I gave it a "point". This is because I assume that 3 vs 4 of a card is a matter of choice, and deck builders may play with numbers a bit. Here's the data I came up with:

13 - Cryptic Command

11 - Misty Rainforest

9 - Thoughtseize

8 - Great Sable Stag

7 - Reflecting Pool, Razorverge Thicket, Verdant Catacombs

5 - Darkslick Shores, Ranger of Eos, Valakut, Birds of Paradise, Lotus Cobra

4 - Mutavault, Vendilion Clique, Prismatic Omen, Fauna Shaman, Summoning Trap, Noble Hierarch, Primeval Titan, Scapeshift, Flooded Grove

It's noteworthy that Cryptic Command and Thoughtseize are at the top of the list. These are the most disabling spells in the format. They're both great ways to keep Jace, the Mind Sculptor off the table, and they fit in a wide variety of decks.

Cryptic Command is seeing play in the various control decks, like Cruel Control and its ilk, as well as Faeries and a myriad of other decks which can easily cast the punishing counterspell off Vivid lands, filter lands, or careful fetch land usage. This format is clearly about Cryptic Command and Thoughtseize. Jund, the top dog in Standard last year, put up a great showing as expected. It uses Thoughtseize in the sideboard, unsurprisingly. I have even seen Jund builds that are running Cryptic Command, though I suspect this is just plain greedy. The ability to tap their board at the EOT seems like it could be game-winning, and it can take the sting out of a Bloodbraid Elf if you can time the spell right.

I've left Jace off this list since I really don't suggest speculating on him. Even if he makes gains, you leave too much money at risk at once. It's just not worth the drama. He's clearly everywhere, as he seems to be a multiple format all-star, but he's not a relevant card in my books. I just hate risking that much money on one card.

Of the lands, Reflecting Pool is below where I expected it to be, but Razorverge Thicket and Misty Rainforest are higher. Verdant Catacombs makes sense at those numbers, considering that some Jund decks actually don't play them anymore. Darkslick Shores and Valakut also remain relevant, and Mutavault and Flooded Grove put in an appearance as well. Surprising is the lack of Copperline Gorge and Darkcleave Cliffs; my expectation is that Jund would run on them, but they did not make the cut it would seem. I am still acquiring cheap Scars of Mirrodin duals when I can, but they seem to be getting more expensive.

My favorite card on this list is easily Great Sable Stag. It's the third-most played spell behind Cryptic Command and Thoughtseize, and for good reason; it beats both Cryptic Command and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There are plenty of ways to deal with the Stag, but he's just resilient enough to give Jace/Cryptic decks some trouble. He's on the rise in a big way, and you should really be stocking them already. It may not be too late, though.

A noteworthy card that wasn't on the list, Wargate, made some big moves on MTGO the other day. The Alara Reborn rare is seeing some Extended play in decks that use it to fetch all sorts of nasties. I love me some third-set rares, and Wargate qualifies. The movement on MTGO may be short-term and localized, but paper copies may not have adjusted yet. The speed at which MTGO moves is amazing. It's a great leading indicator of where the markets are going to go.

On to our portfolio, which may demand some changes after Worlds.

Ancient Amphitheater - No change. We are probably waiting for some rogue deck out of nowhere on this card, so keep an eye on MTGO Dailes.

Mosswort Bridge - These are getting harder to find at 1.00, because it looks like current cost is up to 1.25. These have definitely seen play recently, so we can hold out to see if they could be big gainers in early 2011.

Gaddock Teeg saw no play at Worlds, and has not moved at all. Just about what we expected.

Doran, the Siege Tower is slowly creeping towards 3.50 despite seeing zero play this past weekend. He remains a popular card despite not getting any professional attention. We'll hold tight, since no gains have been made beyond a few cents.

Sygg, River Guide seems to be even cheaper, since no merfolk deck showed up either. We'll be looking at a small loss until the Merfolk deck appears again. Madrush Cyclops is still just a longshot to bet on with spare change, and Bloodbraid Elf hasn't moved a bit. In the same colors, Thornling is seemingly getting cheaper. It only saw play as a one-of in the Ooze deck. We aren't expecting it to do much for a month or two anyway. It's more of a reactive metagame card.

Magister Sphinx is a long-game EDH play, so don't expect movement soon. No Pyromancer Ascension decks did any work in Extended, so Time Warp has stayed dormant for the time being. Likewise, the Renegade Doppelganger combo deck has yet to appear as it has since the card's printing, so keep holding tight on these too. Great Sable Stag, however, is almost guaranteed to be worth more than a dollar in the height of the season, so we may decide to put more money into Stag if we come up with some spare cash.

The Scars duals seem to be getting a lot of attention. Copperline Gorge is uptrending slightly, as is Blackcleave Cliffs. I expect to cash these out at 3.00+ in-season, and I have stocked my retail stove heavily with all of the Scars duals.

With the information we have now, we know that we are waiting for more metagame data before we act. We'll pick up the portfolio again in the new year, as there will not likely be new tech developing before people start preparing for GP Atlanta. Look for me there with a Quiet Speculation polo (or a ManaNation shirt) and ask me for some of my cool new Quiet Speculation stickers too. How have your Extended trading sessions been lately? Prices are spiking all over the place, so hopefully you have made some good calls of your own!