I'm a pretty speculative guy. From NFL drafts, to predicting box office openings, to a horrifyingly degenerate gambling addiction, I like to speculate on the unknown and try to predict what the future holds. It's a great forum for debate since no one can be ‘right', so endless engaging discussion can be held on it.

If you're like me, you're looking forward to October 1^st. Sure, Scars of Mirrordin's release brings the standard joys of new cards, but for me it's my proving ground. You see, as someone still relatively new to Magic, I relied often on the help of the other local players. They knew the cards and the meta, and I feel I overly relied on them to help me ‘catch up' to being a tournament player. With a fresh meta and a couple of tournaments under my belt, it's my time to give back to the local community and aid in the building and tweaking of decks that (hopefully) put myself or someone else on the Pro Tour.

With that goal in mind, you gotta start somewhere, right? This article is half-retrospective, half-speculation. I'm going to look at all the major archetypes of the Alara-Zendikar standard and see which ones will survive rotation and how I think they'll fare with the release of Scars. Several categories to consider:

• Cards lost from M10 and Alara block, and availability of potential replacements
• Strength of the deck in Zendikar block constructed (thanks, Pro Tour San Juan!)
• Wild, drunken assumptions based on a half-spoiled Scars of Mirrordin

With those highly scientific parameters out of the way, let's countdown from worst shape to well-placed!

Level 4: The Stinkers (No chance to survive)

Jund

At last the day has come! For an archetype that was as widely hated as Jund, it's a relief for the premier mid-range/Rock deck to rotate out, giving other strategies some room to breathe. True, at current Jund isn't the oppressive monster it once was, but I think the format is better without Bloodbraid Elf, Sprouting Thrinax, and Blightning crippling anyone who tried to play ‘fair' cards.

Mythic Conscription

Well let's see. You lose the best mana dork ever, and the necessary 6+ copies of a versatile turn 1 play (Noble Hierarch). You lose the protector, accelerator, and biggest creature (Knight of the Reliquary). You lose the best offensive Planeswalker (Elspeth, Knight-Errant). Oh right, and of course the namesake combo (Sovereigns of Lost Alara). Yeah, this deck can go in the grumper.

Grixis Cruel Control

Not surprisingly, all the Alara shards with their unreal mana requirements and powerful effects aren't likely to survive. While there are plenty of control cards in a U/R/B deck, the true ‘style' of Cruel Control, which itself is an evolved version of the old Five Color Control, will rest in peace without the big 7-mana sorcery to put games away. Grave Titan is still around, and I expect dedicated fans to brew up control decks with some (or all) of the Grixis colors, it will be so changed from the current builds that I think calling them the same deck will be disingenuous.

Soul Sisters

Sad to see such a new deck already rotating into oblivion. Some may argue it's place way down here, but the deck REALLY requires 8 Soul Warden effects to run. The deck was already a huge underdog to Day of Judgment and with the predicted rise of U/W decks I can't see a deck with practically no card advantage (goodbye, Ranger of Eos!) making it.

Naya Allies

Allies had been fringe playable before the format got so fast that somehow Baneslayer Angel was too slow , and there's no arguing that Allies as a strategy took a huge hit when they were absent from Rise of the Eldrazi.

They really needed a critical mass of solid creatures to function, and they simply didn't get it in only two sets. Some of that was offset by Cascade effects that always hit more allies, but without Bloodbraid Elf and kin, Allies just falls short. A no-show at San Juan really nailed putting Allies this low.

Time Sieve/Open the Vaults

Minimal words necessary: Time Warp, Time Sieve, Howling Mine, and Open the Vaults are all gone. The days of Howling Mine / infinite turn decks are officially over.

Level 3: The Fixer-Uppers (Needs some reworking and new cards, but there is hope)

Vampires

Ah yes, the ‘deck' that was never really a serious deck yet can't stop being brought up. ‘Vampires is good again!' and ‘Vampires time is coming!' were heard over and over again from random loons, but it never happened. The loss of Vampire Nocturnus hurts because of the free wins he occasionally sniped, but then again Vamps were reasonable in San Juan so it's possible they make a comeback. The big hurt for this deck is that Scars doesn't seem to feature the tribe.

It's totally reasonable that a B/x aggro-disruption deck comes around, using either red for cheap burn and removal, or blue for counterspells, using Black's variety of excellent 2- and 3- drops for a quick clock, but at some point too many creatures are removed for it to be called ‘Vampires'. Like really, when the deck runs Black Knight and Nantuko Shade and ends games with Abyssal Persecutor or Grave Titan, can't we all agree the Vampire Nighthawk isn't the overwhelming star of the deck?

Pyromancer's Ascension

Ascension is weird because it loses few cards, but you'd be hard-pressed to find more crippling losses. Like Mythic needs 8 Birds of Paradise and Soul Sisters needs 8 Soul Wardens, Ascension really really needs 8 one-mana cantrips. The loss of Ponder is a big one, but the loss of Time Warp may be worse.

The main win condition was taking infinite turns with Time Warp and Call to Mind, and while the Plan B of getting 1-3 Ascensions online and just burning them out with Lightning Bolt is still available, it may be too flimsy to put together and truly call a viable deck.

Dredgevine

A personal favorite of the combo decks, I think Dredgevine WOULD be in The Stinkers except for two cards: Trinket Mage and Kaldotha Phoenix. Current iterations generally balance two win conditions: Unearthing Extractor Demons with Renegade Dopplegangers for big hits, or just bringing back Vengevines and beating down. The deck can play to whichever it tends to see more of from it's dredging, and it's lost one of those with the Demon out the door. Other options, like Gerry Thompson's Sedraxis Specter / Bloodbraid additions would help, but they're both out the door as well.

That brings me to the new guys. Kaldotha Phoenix is a dream for Dredge-style decks, effectively giving you 8 Vengevines provided you can get Metalcraft online. Trinket Mage becomes the new Bloodbraid Elf by fetching up Memnite and giving you an automatic 2 creature spells for the price of 1 card, as well as an artifact for the Metalcraft. Now, will the rest of it come together? Who knows, there's potential if there are artifact lands. Molten-Tail Masticore has potential, but perhaps it's too expensive or a critical mass of self-discard. This deck could either come together or flame out miserably, but I like it's chances.

Runeflare Trap

Another casualty of Howling Mine / Font of Mythos rotation, the deck actually has a last gasp of life. Temple Bell is still good and with Voltaic Key you can almost have the critical 8 copies of the effect. Perhaps going to U/R with Jace Beleren can keep up the draw, as well as getting Trinket Mage to find the Keys. The new Galvanic Blast gives the deck another burn spell, and getting Metalcraft for that deck is totally reasonable with minimal changes. I think this is more likely a dead archetype, but its survival isn't out of the question yet.

Polymorph

Well it's no longer the regular Polymorph, it's now the Mass Polymorph version. While slightly more difficult to pull off, some goofy combo like 3 Hadgra Diabolist (instant 27 damage) or a collection of 2-4 normal Polymorph targets like Iona, Shield of Emeria, Stormtide Leviathan, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn should still be enough to get there.

Another option is a Scars preview card called Shape Anew, which is a verbatim Polymorph except sac'ing an artifact to flip for an artifact. Without Darksteel Colossus it's probably moot, but that's a card to keep tucked away in your head until the right target shows up.

Level 2: The Cougars (Not looking as good as they used to, but they'll work as well as the better looking ones)

Titan Valakut / Turbo Land

This I feel is the cream of the Level 2 crop. It barely loses anything (Rampant Growth becomes Explore, and heck Explore might just be better), but the deck is so loose. Sure, it can beat you by turn 5, but that assumes they don't interact with you. A single Duress, Mana Leak, or even Spreading Seas or Goblin Ruinblaster on a Valakut can put the deck so far behind that a quick clock can submarine it. Not to mention it can get easily flooded with so many lands, or just not draw action in any reasonable time, and I can't see it ever sticking around as a true top-tier archetype.

With U/W and Mono Red being known quantities and the biggest prey (Jund and Mythic) disappearing, I'm not sure what will become of this deck. It's undeniably powerful however, and could easily make the leap should Scars bring some consistency to the deck.

Boss / Vengevine Naya

This deck is still mostly dead, and if it stays around I think it will look different enough to be called something new, but the main tricks of each deck (Cunning Sparkmage, Stoneforge Mystic and Basilisk Collar for Boss Naya, Fauna Shaman, creature toolbox and Vengevines) are still on the table and still reasonable to be included in a single deck. Naya decks often ran 4 Noble Hierarchs and 2 Birds of Paradise and I felt 4 Birds and 2 Hierarchs were often correct due to the difficulty of getting red. Losing the Hierarchs hurt, but not as bad as to other archetypes. Lotus Cobra or Sylvan Ranger are still around for mana fixing and acceleration, as well as late game fuel for Fauna Shaman.

Heck, as fast as Standard has been, the Squadron Hawk idea was almost good enough and when the format slows down it'll probably be very reasonable to include. Many of the iconic Naya cards are going away, but I think some tricky G/W/R deck is still very viable.

Beastmaster / R-G Tokens / U-G Monument

I'm lumping these together because they are all variations of Zvi's breakout deck of Zendikar block constructed. Zvi's decklist is playable (if also a bit weak) in the current Standard, so it only has upside from Scars and M11. I think the R/G variation will fall out of favor since the main reasons to go red (Bloodbraid Elf and Siege-Gang Commander) are disappearing. That said, it's an incredibly fast deck with a variety of draws that kill on turns 4-6, and it's playing some of the most powerful cards in the format (Lotus Cobra, Vengevine, and Jace, The Mind Sculptor if you're going blue), so you can't count it out.

Esper Control / Super Friends / Next Level Bant

I'm lumping these together separate from pure U/W because these represent the primary U/W/x decks. I think U/W has enough powerful cards to not need a third color, and with Esper Charm and Arcane Sanctum leaving, I think the Esper shard is the final Alara remnant to fall (interesting that the Shard considered the weakest has the most chance to live on). Even cute decks like Brilliant Ultimatum are out, and while the mana may be doable even without the Sanctum, I don't see a real reason to add black.

U/W/r's rock solid mana base is intact, but it loses its All-Star in Ajani Vengeant. Ajani, and fellow Alara-retiree Elspeth made up the heart of the Super Friends deck, as Elspeth and Gideon could protect Ajani until he just eliminated them from the game. While a similar style could live on with Venser replacing Ajani, it removes the need for red entirely.

Next Level Bant is an interesting case though. It may be the deck most posed to survive. Like Pyromancer's Ascension, it loses little but they are key losses. NLB was considered U/W's worst matchup and if U/W is the big deck, then isn't NLB the ‘next step' ahead where you want to be? The cantripping creatures and Vengevine are still in play, and Fauna Shaman adds a new level of versatility.

The problem however, is the loss of Noble Hierarch and Elspeth. The trump to a Vengevine strategy is still having a bigger defender to block. Exalted triggers and especially Elspeth's +3/+3 and Flying made Vengevine the biggest creature on the board, and not stopped cold by a single Baneslayer Angel. If there is a reusable pump effect in Scars, something to make Vengevine equal to or larger than the Titans, I think NLB is what I'll be slinging at States.

White Weenie

I'm talking about the White Weenie that made waves at Pro Tour San Diego, as opposed to Soul Sisters covered earlier. This is a weird case because the deck was designed to prey on Jund, and as time went on and the format diversified it fell off because of its ‘fair' cards and lack of card advantage. So why is it so high up?

Fair cards could be written off in Shards-Zendikar Standard because there were so many busted creatures. So many creatures could 2-for-1 (Bloodbraid, Thrinax, Leech at the cost of life, anything with Unearth, Knight of the Reliquary) that playing a solid bear just wasn't impressive. Let me tell you what: Without Bloodbraid Elf, the format gets real fair real quick.

White Weenie is still an underdog to U/W, but I think if Mono Red becomes the defining deck of the format, then White Weenie is your counter. Maindeck Kor Firewalkers, first striking White Knights, not to mention a late game of Baneslayer Angel means you can give them fits. An equipment theme supported by the excellent Sword of Vengeance and Sword of Body and Mind could give U/W trouble, forcing them to kill every single creature you play. I'm not sure exactly what White Weenie enthusiasts will come up with, but I think it's an archetype that is quite simply too supported in the Zendikar block to not have something as a possibility.

Level 1: The Good Guys (Well-placed, can elevate to above even current levels)

Mono Red

Humorously enough, these three archetypes were considered the Rock / Paper / Scissors of the format, and it turned out that mid-range green trumped all three. That said, Mono Red gains the most from busting out of the block restrictions. Standard Mono Red loses Hellspark Elemental and Hell's Thunder, which are absolutely devastating losses. That said, it has the most ready replacements to step up for the spots.

Hellspark Elemental can be replaced by any combination of Plated Geopede, Kiln Fiend, Kargan Dragonlord, or Ember Hauler. Koth of the Hammer appears on the horizon like a threatening juggernaut, providing not only a red Vengevine for the beats but forces the mono red victim to *gulp* tap a potential defender to attack Koth before his ultimate just puts them out of the game.

Don't even get me started on burn. Did you know not every red deck runs 4 Searing Blaze or Staggershock? That Galvanic Blast means Mono Red can run 12 one-mana burn spells and no one seems excited? Mono Red is one of the few archetypes with an embarrassment of riches headed into the Zendikar-Scars standard and that scares the hell out of me.

Mono Green Eldrazi Ramp

This perhaps could be lumped with Turboland, but I think recent branching of the archetype is good enough to split them up. The key difference is that while Valakut is more pure combo, Mono Green Eldrazi tends to fumble along, ramping at its convenience knowing it's end game will trump yours. Obstinate Baloth gave the deck breathing room, as a turn 2 Explore into turn 3 Baloth, especially on the play, will keep you alive against Mono Red for another turn or two.

How this deck adjusts to Mono Red will be interesting, it had a hard time sideboarding for it at the Pro Tour, but M11 and Scars will likely bring a ton of playables to the archetype and make it at least a chance to beat it. As is, the deck dominates U/W and that may be good enough to keep it in the discussion.

U/W Control

It's already a premier deck in Standard, and it loses pretty much nothing. Martial Coup (a singleton, if it's even present) and Elspeth (a luxury) are the only real subtractions, and like Mono Red, there's a ton of cards in line for those spots. Elspeth Tiriel and Venser are the obvious newcomers, with perhaps a more creature heavy version with Sea Gate Oracle or Trinket Mage at the 3-drop, with the latter fetching Brittle Effigy for Vengevine or a singleton Basilisk Collar to put on your one or two power blockers.

We all know how back-breaking Putrid Leech into Sprouting Thrinax into Bloodbraid Elf into Blighting is, but if you're an aggro deck trying to curve out normally, how do you beat Wall of Omens into Sea Gate Oracle into Jace, the Mind Sculptor into Venser, the Sojourner blinking a cantrip creature? Do you realize that on the draw at the end of turn 5 that player still has a full grip of seven cards, and has seen 20 cards at that point? That Venser's ultimate is more crippling than original Elspeth's and he gets there one turn faster (and lives through it as well)? How you beat that short of Beastmaster Ascension or Vengevine tricks?

U/W Control still has its bad matchups, namely Mono Red, and if it misses it's early drops it will need a Day of Judgment to bail it out, but the deck is so rock solid on card quality and contains enough card draw and selection to run like a well oiled engine. Adding in a potential Trinket Mage package to make it versatile and powerful blows my mind.

New Standard: Deckbuilder's Paradise

It's been said that Legacy is the only true "deckbuilder's" format remaining. Maybe that's true, but you can't help but get excited for a new Standard. The possibilities are endless, maybe your favorite not-good-enough deck can be revived and retooled, or the new goodies for your best deck, or you're just happy to build that deck that you loved but knew it couldn't get past Jund.

I hope you're happy with your cracks on October 1^st, and you better have a decklist ready for that FNM, because this format is going to hit the ground running with or without you.