I'm going to win the Florida States 2010 tournament.

Well, I mean, that's the plan.

In my last article, I mentioned that I want to use the new Standard to prove myself, to show how I'm a solid deckbuilder, meta predicter, and otherwise all-around badass. I would swagger into States with a perfect 75 and fell scrub after scrub, wearing my finest musk and monocle, likely puffing a fine cigar.

Turns out, Magic is harder than I thought.

Building decks is hard. I built about 4 decks, took them to my first playtesting session, and quite simply got blown out. I was losing to Myr decks making infinite mana, to an infect deck that Giant Growth'd a Plague Stinger for the victory, not to mention big names like U/W Control, Titan Ramp, even that goofy Glint Hawk Metalcraft deck! It was going to be harder than I expected,

This series (a 2- or 3- parter) will be exploring the build-up to States, which is likely at the forefront of most players minds right now. It'll be half my personal quest to hoist up the trophy (Is there a trophy? Plaque? I'm new to all this, I'm sure there's something I can lift) as well as a more pulled-back macro view of the developing metagame, and what you should expect and how to answer the main threats presented by this metagame.

Step 1: Suit Your Style

I've spent a lot of time since the Scars visual spoiler was released trying to figure out what I wanted to play. If I want the best chance to win, then I need to play to my strengths, which meant I needed to take a hard look at myself. There's a lot of talk about picking the absolute best deck, including the audible at the last minute if you find something better. This is a solid line of play if you're a long term Magic veteran with several years under your belt with each archetype. This isn't me.

You see, I suck with control. I tap out at the wrong times; I'm not the best at hitting the sick read so it feels like I'm playing both hands. Quite simply, I'm not skilled enough at Magic right now to play such a complex deck. After States, perhaps I'll switch to a blue-based control deck and get reps with the archetype. But for now I'm going to stick with what I know, well what is that?

I spent most of my time back playing Mythic, with flirtations in Naya and R/G Monument. I like green, I like mana acceleration, and I like being the beatdown. If I can't play control well enough to stop what you're doing, then I'd like to do my own thing, preferably faster. So let's stay within those boundaries.

Step 2: Know Your Enemies

The new standard is a bit of a metagame conundrum. You have known decks, but unknown to the quantity you'll see (whereas you could assume 20-40% of any reasonably-sized tournament 2 weeks ago to be Jund, nowadays I know Valakut is a real deck. How much will show up? No idea). My last article covered what I thought would exist post-rotation, so let's go off that. Here's a list of major archetypes and what you need to be thinking about:

RDW or Boros

Key losses: Hellspark Elemental, Hell's Thunder and Ball Lightning were bad losses already, but at least the 2-spot had reasonable replacements. The 3-spot for creatures in RDW is a gaping vortex big enough to drive a Mack truck through. Chandra's Spitfire? Cunning Sparkmage? Kor Hookmaster? They're passable but not on the aggressive level that you really wanted. Maybe you can get on without it, considering the 4-drop spot has solid options like Koth of the Hammer and Molten-Tail Masticore that didn't exist before.

Hot Tech: I think an under-looked card for States is Flame Slash. The main enemy of RDW is Kor Firewalker, but in practice you can get around them by leveling up Kargan Dragonlord, or now you can wait on Koth or the Masticore to do the dirty work, so what else will people do to stop you?

Well, Red Decks tend to not have card advantage (doubly so without the Hell- creatures) so minimal amount of lifegain, or forcing you to waste two burn spells to kill one 4- toughness creature can run you out of steam before killing them, or buy them enough time to get online. Wall of Omens (U/W), Overgrown Battlement, Obstinate Baloth (Eldrazi Ramp), Sea Gate Oracle and Linvala, Keeper of Silence (NLB/Vengevine Naya) are all natural predators of your little fast guys, and all of them are bonked by a Flame Slash. I think you'd be making a mistake by not mainboarding at least 2.

Something to Consider: You know what's surprisingly well placed? Goblins. Spikeshot Elder is a very solid 1-drop that gives you gas well after you're out of cards, and is naturally buffed by Goblin Chieftain, who nicely fits that 3-drop spot that has been otherwise abandoned. Goblin Guide or Spikeshot at 1, Ember Hauler or Warren Instigator at 2, Goblin Chieftain at 3 seems as aggressive as anything else red can do, with a lot of built-in burn for when they stabilize.

U/W Control

Key losses: Path to Exile, Oblivion Ring, and Elspeth, Knight-Errant. I think I was a bit overzealous in my last article claiming that U/W didn't lose much, as those are big losses. Aggressively being able to deal with Fauna Shaman, Vengevine, and opposing planeswalkers is key to stabilizing and taking over the game. Do you know how futile it feels to Condemn a Vengevine when they can just go get it with Fauna Shaman? The answer is craptastic. Elspeth is a bigger loss than I thought, because there are several early game board states where you don't want to run a Jace, The Mind Sculptor out there unprotected.

Hot Tech: I can't believe he is considered ‘tech', but Venser, the Sojourner is bonkers for a laundry list of reasons. Instead of retreading the obvious (BLINKING WALL OF OMENS OMGWTFBBQ) I'll pitch this to you: He's probably the most important card aside from Jace in the mirror, as well as against Eldrazi Ramp. He ticks up fairly quickly, while generating card advantage, in a matchup where neither of you are killing each others cantrip creatures (so they're definitely around to be blink'd).

Once ultimate, you will win every planeswalker war (You have a Jace out? I'll cast my Jace, on the stack exile yours, mine resolves), and Eldrazi don't become nearly as scary when every leftover Wall of Omens exiles an Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre. Keep in mind Venser's ultimate generates a colorless emblem, so if you have an instant (say, Jace's Ingenuity) you can exile Emrakul, the Aeons Torn before the annihilator knocks you out of the game. Don't buy into the recent backlash, Venser is serious business and should make the cut for every U/W deck.

Something to Consider: Your 5- and 6- drop spots are going to be crowded with new additions like Venser, Elspeth Tiriel, Sunblast Angel, Wurmcoil Engine, and Volition Reins. It's going to be a tough cut, but you need to decide which ones REALLY matter and run with them. It's tempting to load your deck up with all the sweet 5+ cost monsters, but when you're looking at your opening hand and you don't have a play until turn 4 because you made your curve top-heavy, I won't be crying for you.

Eldrazi Ramp / Valakut

Key losses: NOTHING MUHAHAHA! Actually, Rampant Growth. Many decks ran either a 2-2 split of Rampant Growth and Explore, or 5-7 copies combined of both cards. Losing it hurts, but there is still Explore and Overgrown Battlement (which is more relevant to Eldrazi than Valakut, as Valakut definitely wants the Mountains in play over a defender), not to mention Cultivate and Harrow at the 3 spot.

Hot Tech: Consider playing multiple colors instead of mono-green (for Eldrazi). There is an abundance of friendly dual lands, and neighboring colors can bring a lot to your deck. Eldrazi has a natural problem with RDW, but a well timed Lighting Bolt can buy you the necessary turns to get on your feet. White brings Wall of Omens (for eight 0/4 defenders at the 2-drop slot), not to mention the incredibly powerful Admonition Angel. All the landfall already in your deck is perfect for her, and in the mirror she dominates, gobbling up enemy Eldrazis and Titans at instant speed while they fumble without an answer to a 6/6 flying beatstick.

Something to Consider: This archetype may become the most played post-rotation. Last week at FNM I played Primeval Titan decks in my first four rounds. Be prepared for the mirror, think about what you would be terrified to face and figure out how to incorporate that. Do you try to be faster? Do you take a more controlling role? I'm not sure how to win the mirror, but I know that this deck is one with a big target on its head and you better be ready to play the mirror.

With the three main pillars out of the way, let's take a short look at the rest of the developing field:

Glint Hawk / Metalcraft Aggro

We proxied this up from Patrick Chapin's last article, and while it's definitely a potential contender, it's going to need a bit of fixing up. You're just as likely to draw the nuts as you are to draw Glint Hawk, Etched Champion, Lodestone Golem, Quest for the Holy Relic, 3 lands. The deck mulligans awfully and has a ton of crappy topdecks late game. Despite that, you can definitely see potential and it has some just flat out unfair starts, if it gets smoothed over it may be the aggro deck of choice.

Fauna Shaman / Vengevine decks

This archetype is still being hammered out because no one is sure what colors are ‘right'. I've seen Naya, Bant, and U/G/R variants. I've seen Trinket Mage replacing Stoneforge Mystic (fetching Basilisk Collar) and Bloodbraid Elf (fetching Memnite). I've seen Renegade Doppleganger brought over from Dredgevine for explosive starts, and more artifact based Control-Dredge style decks with Kuldotha Phoenix and Ratchet Bomb to keep the board under control before exploding with an army from the graveyard.

In truth, NLB and Boss Naya were essentially aggro-control decks, able to take several lines of play based on the meta. The problem is, the meta doesn't seem really well set up for it. You're too slow and vulnerable to early burn to deal with RDW or Metalcraft aggro, and not fast or interactive enough to stop Valakut from killing you on turn 5. I mean really, what are you planning to do with that Cunning Sparkmage? I think this deck will develop post-States as the meta shapes up to be more clear, but currently it seems to be a metagame deck without a metagame to target.

Mid-Range Green

This is what I was trying out originally, a Beastmaster Ascension/Eldrazi Monument deck similar to what broke out at Pro Tour: San Juan. The deck is hyper inconsistent though, and even with 8 ‘crusade' effects, it just never seemed to click together. It's still a potential contender, but I don't see why at current you would play another aggro deck, which have equally unfair starts but are less impotent when they don't have their key cards.

Step 3: Build Your Deck

Yeah… so… after all that, now comes the hard part.

…

Well, tune in next week!

---

Next week I'll go over what I learned, and the evolution of my States deck from start to finish, and how I modified it based on my playtesting. I hope this primer gets you in the brewing mood, and good luck at your local States (unless it's Florida, I already called dibs on that one).