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Kelly Reid's Mail Bag

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I get a lot of email about Magic.  That's a pretty good problem to have.  Sometimes i get so much I can't get to all of 'em and I feel badly.  I try my best to reply to all the emails I get but some slip through.   I wanted to take some time and reply in detail to some of the emails I got, but I hardly had time.  I wanted to finish this ManaNation article well on time.  Then I had an idea.  Why not just answer the emails where everyone can see them and learn?  That would make a lot more sense.  Thus, this week's article is a mailbag article!

Jay Kirkman asks,

I'd like to see some advice on how to buy collections. How are bulk commons and uncommons valued? Bulk rares? Money rares?

Jay, buying collections is tough.  The main problem I encounter is actually finding collections.  Once you locate them, it's just a matter of inspecting the goods and making an offer.  To find collections, I love having my storefront; that's why I opened it in the first place to be honest.  If you can find a local store that doesn't buy collections, tell them to send collection buyers your way and you'll pay a finder's fee.  Roll that fee into your offer for the collection if you must.

Once you make an offer for a collection, it's important not to change it too drastically.  Unlike in a single trade, there can often be emotions and sentimental feelings behind someone's collection, so respect that.  I usually refrain from talking numbers until I've seen the whole thing.  I will throw out ballpark figures, like quoting my bulk common/uncommon price and bulk rare price.  I then let them know that I can offer then a price right there, where i can verify quantity and nothing else, or i can take the time to go thru and price it more accurately.  I pay .10 on bulk rares and $3/1000 on bulk commons/uncommons.

As a small-time seller, I have to mind my margins, so I'll make an offer based on how quickly I can flip something.  Stuff in Standard turns over weekly, so I can be more aggressive on pricing that out.  Legacy stuff sits longer, so I am usually pricing it a bit lower.   You have to evaluate the velocity of a collection, so to say. The lower velocity, the less I offer.  Sometimes people just want 20 bucks for a 5k count box of stuff, and I'll always take that deal, even if it's a box of 5000 basic lands ;)  The EV is usually high.

@norbert88 from Twitter writes,

Do you think the hot Legacy cards like Show and Tell and Eureka will keep their ridiculous prices or fall back to obscurity?

That depends on the viability of the decks.  I am not a Legacy guy.  I get all my Legacy information from columns online and Doug Linn, so if he says something is good, I believe him.  There's definitely a precedent to their high prices, but I feel like Legacy speculation is a bit out of hand right now.  It's like the "hot" thing to do.  That can't be good for prices long-term.  I think they're a bit high, and will cool off like Dream Halls did.  Show and Tell and Eureka are both pretty powerful effects though.

Jesse from Boston writes,

I was wondering if there's a site or easy reference to get EV on older booster box/packs. If that random shop has an old box of Judgement they're selling, is there a quick way to look on my (internet enabled) phone to know what a good deal is?

Thanks!

No such site exists as far as I know.  The odds are that if the box is much higher than $85, it's not worth buying.  It entirely depends on the set.  It would be a good resource, but you can kind of gauge it by eye.  Judgment has 44 rares in the set.  If I count up the rares that are worth a damn (IE more than a couple bucks each), I realize that the average value of the rares is about a dollar.  ($45 or so worth of cards, estimated, divided by 44 rares in the set...)  That means that the EV on the set is very low.  In a set like Future Sight, where there's one bombshell card and a few $5 rares, the math changes a bit.  One box is like a lottery ticket if the card's a rare.  You're better off buying 2-3 to reduce variance.  I've rarely found boxes to be a good value proposition if you don't plan on playing Limited.  Just buy singles.

Adam Styborski writes,

Here's a few questions I wanted to pick your brain over:

How does Baneslayer coming back in M11 impact price, if at all?

That's kind of a tough one.  I've been getting that question a lot lately and I have to say I'm not entirely sure.  I can't see it pushing the price up by much.  At $60, they're totally unattainable.  More printings of Baneslayer Angel will mean a decline in price, but by how much, I don't know.  I'd venture to guess she'll settle in the high 20s or low 30s, but I really just can't wait to see what happens!

Will the WWK manlands increase in value or have they capped out?

Yes, but not any time soon. They'll dry up soon, but Worldwake is still pretty fresh.  The lack of ZWR draft really should help man land prices, but it hasn't yet.  I think that once Scars hits, the man lands will really see a bit of a surge.  They're instant staples, so they'll see play for years to come.  They're cheap now.  Very cheap indeed...

Is it ever right to trade Legacy staples (i.e. dual lands, Sinkhole, etc.) for Standard/Extended, other than in an extremely lopsided trade? (i.e. Is there ever a gain to be made to trade "down" if the value is fairly equitable at the time of trade?)

I could answer this, or I could ask you what your goal is?  See, you can't evaluate a trade without a goal.  For investment purposes, Legacy cards usually represent a slow, steady gain.  Psychologically, it feels bad when we trade a card away and then it gains value.  The point is, that "pain" is not helpful for analyzing your strategy.  My goal is to just generate value.  If I can get more value out of trading a Dual Land then by letting it appreciate in my case, I'll trade it.  If not, I'll sit.  As a store, I tend to use Dual Lands to stock up on Standard cards.  People who need duals will dump Standard rares to get them at a favorable rate. It doesn't have to be a lopsided deal either.  Duals are like a golden ticket.  They can probably get you anything you need, so unless your goal is to trade up (Pack to Power style), you should just get good value for it.  if you are trying to trade up, you should not do such deals.

When will you be back in the DC/Baltimore area? Can we hang again? ;-)

I'm hoping my summer trip, still in the planning stages, will take me through both DC and Baltimore!

@GarethLewin from Twitter asks,

Will Gideon keep going up like Jace, or has it hit a ceiling? :P

Gideon is still $60, and unlike Jace, he is not essential to every blue deck in the format.  He is also from a set with a lot of other expensive Mythics - Vengevine's $40+ price tag being the main mitigating factor.  I sincerely hope that Mythics stop being $50+ in the near future, but I don't hold out much home.

That's it for this week!  I'm going to try something new this week.  Leave a comment below with one question you'd like answered, and I'll close next week's article with a reply to my favorite question.  If that goes well, then I'll make it a regular thing.  Let's hear it.

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