Competitive Brews and Some Finance Peppered In

Posted on October 12, 2012

Last week, I talked about a deck I expected to see break out in the next few weeks: Séance reanimator. Unfortunately, it did not have the showing I would have liked at the first event, but that doesn’t mean this format is anywhere near defined from one weekend and two events. This week, I am going to cover some of the cards from Return to Ravnica that have already begun to shake up the format and where their prices are headed in the next few months. It is hard to figure out what decks have staying power and which are just there to take advantage of the initial lack of structure a new format provides, but that is my goal this week. I will not be talking about actual decks and what they need to do to change with the coming tide of innovation; instead, I want to look at the individual cards that played a role in these decks doing well.

Let’s start with the white and blue aggro variants we saw do well both at the StarCityGames Open and at the TCGplayer 5k this past weekend. These decks took various approaches to the same path to victory, some using cards such as War Falcon to try to race the other aggro decks, while others relied on cards such as Geist of Saint Traft and ways to keep him alive such as Spectral Flight and exalted. The deck that won the Hartford 5k took advantage of a mix of both of these plans to find victory among the field, but what does that mean for the financial world? Looking at these decklists, I see some common themes that can be taken advantage of before the cards begin their upward climb.

The first card is the most obvious player, Geist of Saint Traft, which really defines the late game for this deck, allowing you to deal that last little bit of damage before control takes over or Zombies lands too many Blood Artists. Although this card has already spiked up to $30 on most of the major websites, I have found most people are concentrating on control and Zombies so much that they are willing to part with this powerhouse Spirit for a bargain. Take advantage of that while you can—this deck is going to stick around in one variation or another, meaning Geist probably won’t be becoming any—if at all—cheaper.

Two more cards in this deck that I believe have been poised to jump for some time now are Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Champion of the Parish. This archetype uses both cards to maximum efficiency, and if it continues to do well through the next few weeks, you can expect a steep rise in price. Champion gives this deck the late-game reach it needs to create bad blocks for your opponents, while Thalia ensures that any board sweepers your opponent may have are stranded for an extra turn while your men can continue the onslaught.

Sublime Archangel is another card this deck has taken to in order to wrap up the game in a hurry. Both Thalia and Archangel have shown up in multiple archetypes this past weekend, giving each an extra boost in potential price. I believe the Archangel has topped off on where its ceiling is, but that does not mean they will not make good trade bait over the coming weeks. Thalia still hasn’t spiked, so there is some potential there to not only provide players with what they want but to also make a few dollars doing it if you hold them for a few weeks.

The other archetype I am talking about in terms of using Thalia and Sublime Archangel is G/W aggro—or Selesnya aggro for you guild fanatics. This deck looks to ramp into large threats, allowing you to keep pressure on turn after turn dropping a must-deal-with bomb. Although it did not claim a victory this weekend, I believe the deck has a lot of staying power due to how quickly it can dominate the board, forcing your opponent to play on his back foot the entire game, struggling to survive.

The card I would keep an eye on from these lists—other than the already mentioned Thalia and Sublime Archangel—is Loxodon Smiter. This guy can easily come down on turn two with this deck, and if you can Rancor him up the following turn, your opponent is probably going to be in a world of hurt almost immediately. I am not sure how much higher this card can go given its already high presale price, but it is still one I would watch out for and pick up if you can manage to snag a few cheaper than their current retail.

While we are talking about the aggro strategies of this new format, we must of course touch on the subject of Zombies since it has been the most widely-talked-about deck for the past few months now. I can see the deck continuing to be a major metagame player, but I certainly don’t see it dominating the format since it has shown weakness to many of the other strategies that showed up this past weekend. Though the archetype did make a few Top 8 appearances, that may have solely been due to the sheer number of people jamming the undead and their Vampire brethren this past weekend.

Unlike the other decks I have discussed thus far, I do not see anything in Zombies jumping in value any time soon. Most of the reason this deck has hit its peak price is that it was already the center of attention for a while now, and any card that had a chance to rise has already done so. If the cards start to lull due to inactivity or a lack of Top 8s, I could see picking them up again, but for now, I would dump any extra cards you have for this deck.

Another archetype that has been on the radar for a while now follows the same color pattern as some of the Zombies builds but takes a very different approach. Jund midrange cuts all of the 1-cost beaters, instead looking to capitalize on the colors’ more expensive spells such as Thragtusk and Huntmaster of the Fells. With the advantage these creatures can give you in combination with Olivia Voldaren and a nice removal suite, this deck looks to continue on as a metagame-defining deck. With the tools and ability to adapt to whatever the format becomes, Jund—whether ramp or midrange—will be able to evolve as the format sees fit.

Currently, there is not much to capitalize on here, as almost every card in this deck that could grow in value already has due to widespread play both in and out of Jund. The exception to this that I can see is one of the lesser-known spells in this deck, Sever the Bloodline. The card has already begun to grow in both popularity and price, but that does not mean it is too late to capitalize. With the control decks looking to use Entreat the Angels as a win condition and the aggro decks running cards they can take advantage of out of the graveyard, this is a great pickup even at the current $2 price tag, which has doubled from last week.

Before I move on to the new control brew that dominated this past weekend at the StarCityGames Open, I want to talk briefly about Frites, which is truly no long Frites at all, but people just can’t let go of that name. Unlike its predecessor, this deck looks to play a much slower game and instead uses a solid midrange game that can be complemented by some late-game bombs from the grave. I hardly believe this is the optimal build to this deck, and the version that Chris Weidinger looked subpar to me—at least in the sideboard—so look to some of the innovators in the next few weeks to come up with a superior list. I cannot understand how this deck manages to overlook one of the most powerful reanimator targets in Armada Wurm, but with its strong showing, it is a good bet that it will be back in the near future, new and improved (and, I hope, with a little more Séance)!

So, it appears we have the first control variant in just a week after the official release of Return to Ravnica. It used to take some amount of time for the format to shape up and for control to become the dominate force, but now, with an event almost every weekend and teams constantly testing, gone are those days. This deck seems to rely on the combination of Jace, Architect of Thought and Tamiyo, the Moon Sage to hold the fort while you build up for a large Entreat the Angels. Outside of some card-draw and a mountain of removal, this deck is truly just that simple: Get to Entreat, make Angels, and win!

Unfortunately, the ship has finally sailed on Jace 4.0, but don’t be surprised to see some of the other cards in this deck spike in price if they haven’t already by time this hits the Internet. Terminus and Detention Sphere would be my bets if I had to pick a pony in this race, but I can see Entreat the Angels moving up a little more if this deck continues to do well. The deck will probably evolve with the format, eventually cutting cards such as Pillar of Flame for more suitable options for the metagame, meaning you may be able to make a quick buck if you see where that metagame is going and see how to prepare for it.

That’s all I have for this edition of your financial news. Join me next week as we explore yet another guild and see how I can tie it in to the financial world. If anyone has any idea what Rakdos and George Washington have in common, shoot me a tweet or share in the comments section. Thanks for your input, and I hope you enjoyed the mild breakdown of the current metagame.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand