There is a certain mystique to the Mythic Rare. An air of superiority, something that makes a Magic player stop and stare in awe. They command high price tags, do massive, game-changing things, and are some of the most coveted cards in the game today. Mythic Rares are controversial, larger-than-life, and, some will say, have pushed the cost of competitive decks higher.
Today, we throw all of that away and focus instead on Magic's penny stocks; crap rares. Ugly, dirty, unwashed junk rares. Why? Because it's often far easier to make a profit off of junk rares than it is off any other type of card in Magic.
Let's explore the rationale behind this before we look at a few Scars of Mirrodin cards that are currently pre-selling for below average amounts. In an old article, I described a Tier system that I use to rate cards and price them. While you can price your cards to the cent using software if you're a dealer (and I encourage you to do so!), most people have neither the time nor inclination to do that. Instead, it helps to break cards into pricing tiers. Here's an updated refresher, mostly for Standard and Extended cards.
- Superstar Card. Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Tarmogoyf. Primeval Titan. $30 or more.
- Chase Rare/Mythic. Lotus Cobra. Gideon Jura. Maelstrom Pulse (in its prime). $20
- Star Rare/Staple Mythic. Fauna Shaman. Fetch Lands. Vendilion Clique. $10
- High Quality Rare/Niche Mythic. Oracle of Mul Daya. Howling Mine. Time Warp (when it's not in a tier 1 deck). $5
- Niche Rare/Average Mythic. Summoning Trap. M10 Duals. $3
- Crap Rare. $1.
There are a few ways to exploit this scale. First and foremost, there are relatively few cards that make it to Tier 1. It's a terrible gamble to bet that a given card will make that jump or sustain that price, so I generally advise against doing that. For every time you don't buy a $40 Jace, The Mind Sculptor, you'll pass on $50 Gideon Jura three times or more. It's just not worth the risk.
Second, a funny thing happens when you get to the lower tiers. People stop enforcing "book value" so much. I must assume this is because they either do not understand the value of potential use or because they view any opportunity to trade a card as a welcome chance to "liquidate" an otherwise useless piece of cardboard. Thus, you get the bulk rare phenomenon. People are willing to slough off their bulk rares to traders and dealers at an alarmingly low rate (usually around 0.10 USD per rare).
This creates a very interesting set of probabilities. Lets say there are X rares in a set that you can acquire at 0.10 USD . You could even go up to 0.25 USD, if you're feeling generous, but for this math, we'll use 0.10 as dealers often do). We know from experience that a bulk rare can easily go from bulk to $1-$2 if they suddenly appear in successful decks. Thus, we know that for every 10 different cards we select to buy at Bulk, we only need 1 out of 10 to "make it" to break even. I dare say anyone who knows anything about Magic could hit those odds.
First, you weed out the cards that are just not conducive. This takes some experience and judgment, but it doesn't take a genius to understand that Wild Evocation is probably a bad bet to become a Tier 1 staple. Cards with big effects for small mana costs are usually prime for this, especially if the effect is quirky. Pyromancer Ascension is a prime example of a card that went from bulk to primetime. It gives a powerful effect for little mana, and it was high on my list of cards to speculate on when ZEN came out. It's no secret that I have many copies that I bought many moons ago.
You will have to do your own math, factoring in costs to buy, ship and otherwise execute your orders, but hopefully that "1 in 10" thing is a good guideline to start with. Do the math and see what your success rate needs to be. I will say that pre-order time is a poor time to do this, because prices are inflated across the board. Dealers have no incentive to risk making a mistake by listing something too low, so they will usually price aggressively instead Many people bemoan this practice but I could not imagine doing it every other way. I have no problem with dealers setting their pre-order prices to mitigate risk. If you don't like a dealer's price, try an open market site that will let the "invisible hand" do the price enforcement for you
From what we know of SOM, we can make some good guesses as to how the set will pan out. There are a few cards that I feel are undervalued right now, and as such might make some very savvy pre-release trades or pre-orders. Remember, pre-orders are risky. Some of the less reputable dealers will not honor your pre-orders, which is nothing short of criminal. I'd like to take a moment to discuss that very problem.
If you are taking pre-orders as a dealer, and you don't fill someone's order to the letter, you are stealing from them. Even if you give back the money. If I pre-order something, I am basically buying an option from you and paying you up front. That option basically gives me the right to buy the card at it's current price, when it comes out, so that you will have the capital to order the sealed product. What I am doing is loaning you money for about 2 weeks (or more) with the hopes that I can leverage that time value of money and my best information to turn a profit (or avoid a future loss, when I would have to spend more on the same cards). In no uncertain terms, if you cannot fill a pre-order, you are stealing. This is not up for debate.
With that little tangent and caveat out of the way, here are my favorite underpriced Scars of Mirrodin rares. There are no Mythic Rares on this list since none of them are even remotely cheap. Presale prices are approximated based on prices around the web. Without further ado, here are my five favorite underpriced Scars of Mirrodin rares. Thanks as always, and I'll see you after the pre-release!
Kemba, Kha Regent | Presale Price ~ $2
I cannot believe this card is not selling for $5+. Aside from being one of the best EDH generals I can think of right now, due to the interaction with Whispersilk Cloak and such, it has massive potential in Extended and Standard. It is not hard to build a deck that uses efficient equipment to gain huge advantages, and Kemba fits right in. As a 2/4, he is resilient to Lightning Bolt, survives a Bloodbraid attack in Extended, and his 2 power can keep early beaters off your back. The horde of 2/2s he can make will eventually take over the game, so between the high toughness, low mana cost, and high potential to take over games, Kemba deserves more respect than a couple Washingtons. I suspect this will not be $2 for long.
Necrotic Ooze | Presale Price ~ $2
In the formats of the past, I'd not have liked this guy, but in an environment with Hedron Crab, Enclave Cryptologist, and even Tome Scour, you have to like what Necrotic Ooze brings to the format. The 4/3 body for 4 is a luxury, as we'd really rather see high toughness here. Alas, Black creatures are not known for longevity. As it stands, I'd like to find a cheap way to get this thing regenerating or untargetable. Luckily for us, there are easy ways to give Necrotic Ooze a ton of abilities. The first of these is the hilariously effective Gigantomancer-in-the-Graveyard trick. Just mill off one of those monsters and suddenly your Necrotic Ooze is turning into a giant, alongside your Enclave Cryptologist and Hedron Crap. Need Haste or Regeneration? Toss Skytherix in the bin. How about milling a Fauna Shaman or two? I really don't want to consider the implications that Renegade Doppelganger will have here, but I'm pretty sure it's on my list of cards to continue acquiring. I may be too aggressive here, but I have pre-ordered multiple playsets at $2 because I feel strongly that the card is worthy of high level tournament play.
Chimeric Mass | Presale Price ~$2
This is not as greivous an error as the above two cards, but Chimeric Mass is a card to keep an eye on. It's an X-Cost artifact, which means it's easy to get from your deck as a 1-of. The fact that you can play it for 1, and then just allow your deck's proliferation engine to build it, is what amuses me most. I can see using this in Extended alongside cards like Contagion Clasp, Tezzeret the Seeker and Everflowing Chalice to generate a massive mana engine and Chimeric Mass attack. I just love 1-drop artifacts, and I see this having higher than average potential.
Darksteel Juggernaut | Presale Price ~$1
OK, 5 mana is definitely a lot of mana, but considering the acceleration available to dedicated artifact decks, the payoff is huge. First of all, he survives every combat, no matter what. Using Grand Architect to power him out early could be advantageous, and he can even turn into extra mana! 5 mana seems like a lot, but when you can "cheat" on it a bit, like with Voltaic Key and a big Everflowing Chalice, it gets more reasonable. At $1 each, I'd be willing to wager I could double my money when it sees competitive play. It's more of a "trade for me" card than anything else, since many people will not value this Juggernaut highly.
Kuldotha Phoenix | Presale Price ~$2
If anything makes me excited, it's recursion. I love them all. Zombify, Makeshift Mannequin, Dread Return, Reanimate...but nothing makes me happier than when a creature can do it for itself. Let's focus on the important part of Kuldotha Phoenix - everything but it's mana cost. As far as I'm concerned, Kuldotha Phoenix is not castable from your hand. While I can see mono red decks using two as a finisher, I'm much more interested in what happens when it's put in a deck alongside Vengevine, Bloodghast, Hedron Crab, Enclave Cryptologist and friends. Again, this card makes me really excited about Renegade Doppelganger, as it becomes terrifyingly easy to keep your Vengevines coming. Sadly, this does not help you "rebuy" vengevine insomuch as it will not add to the triggers, but in my book, paying (4) for a 4/4 flier with Haste is just fine. Between all these creatures, your Doppelgangers should be hitting every single turn. This is a card I think will take some time to see play, but when it does, players will seriously question why they didn't think of it sooner. Get 'em now before you become such a person.