Looking at the results of a Pro Tour where players use a brand-new set for the first time is a great way to get a head start on the format. First, there are lots of players. Second, they're all relatively good players. Third, they're all playing their best decks and playing their hardest. Finally, these are all decks they've put lots of time into tuning and testing with teams of high-level players in preparation for playing them on Magic's biggest stage.

This past week at Pro Tour: Paris, there were 483 players. Each of them had to be good enough to earn an invitation in some fashion or another, usually by winning a Pro Tour Qualifier tournament or by having accumulated a high DCI rating. There were seven decks played by at least 5 percent of the field:

• Valakut Ramp: 105 players
• Blue/Black control: 100 players
• Blue/White control: 78 players
• Rebirth Red: 36 players
• Vampires: 34 players
• Green/White and White Quest: 29 players
• Boros: 28 players

The results of a few other decks were also interesting: R/U/G control, Green ramp, White Steel, and Red aggro. Each of these decks was played by at least eight players and with somewhat surprising results. As you can see from the basic numbers, though, Mirrodin Besieged didn't have any shocking effects on the overall metagame.

Based on the results of pre–Mirrodin Besieged $5Ks here in the United States, the top three most-played decks aren't a huge shock. However, I am surprised that there was such a big difference in the number of people playing control decks as opposed to aggressive decks. I did expect the numbers to be in favor of control decks, in part because the general type of player who attends a Pro Tour is more likely to be a control player, and also in part because they've spent enough time preparing for the event to make playing control a reasonable choice. Still, given the popularity and success of Boros pre-event, I expected more than twenty-eight of them. Also, both Boros and Rebirth Red got help in Mirrodin Besieged, which I would have also expected to affect the numbers.

How to determine the winners and the losers in this metagame, though? Any given player with a solid deck can get hot and power a deck past its normal expectations. Thus, it's best to deal with the biggest numbers possible when sifting our data. For example, there was exactly one person playing an Ally deck, and he had a winning record. One deck out of 483 just isn't enough info for me to say that he made a daring deck choice that you should run out and build. If he had gone undefeated, however, I might give it a little more serious thought.

So let's look at the decks run by lots of players, or decks that were used in fewer numbers but had extremely unusual results. Let's start with the big seven:

• Valakut—105 players. Twelve players had 18 points or more in ten rounds of Swiss (the equivalent of six wins and four losses). Two players had 24 or more points, the equivalent of 8-2 or better. So about one in ten Valakut players had a winning record, and only about 2 percent kicked butt. There were some common threads to most of the successful Valakut decks: They all had at least three creatures costing 2 or less and nine of the twelve players with winning records ran four copies of Green Sun's Zenith in the main deck. So even a tried-and-trusted deck like Valakut Ramp was able to get a boost from Mirrodin Besieged. However, with numbers like these, it seems that the field in Paris was ready for Valakut. I don't recommend playing it unless you're a stone-cold expert with the deck and you've got four copies of Green Sun's Zenith.

• U/B Control—100 players. Sixteen players had 18 or more points, and two had 24-plus. The numbers are very similar to Valakut, and only one of the twenty-four-plus decks was a fairly standard build. The other was a deck played by Patrick Chapin including Red and built around Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas. So Blue/Black seems like an even worse choice than Valakut, but perhaps Tezzeret is worth exploring further.

• U/W—78 players. With twenty-two players at 18-plus points, seven at 24-plus, and Ben Stark eventually being crowned champion of the event playing it, this seems like the breakout archetype of the tournament. U/W's results were very impressive: Better than 25 percent of the U/W players had winning records, and close to 10 percent earned eight or more wins. Interestingly, with the exception of the occasional Sword of Feast and Famine, this deck didn't seem to use any cards from the new set. That would suggest that the new set helped shift the environment into a more U/W control–friendly one, rather than actually powering up the deck itself. This might be a reason to hold off on going out and loading up on Blue and White Planeswalkers. This deck's dominance might be short-lived as the environment shifts to take this into account.

• Rebirth Red—36 players. Six had 18-plus points and two had 24-plus. The percentages are definitely better than Valakut and U/B, but well short of really exciting, must-play kind of numbers. If you like this type of deck, it's probably worth some time continuing to tune and test it.

• Vampires—34 players. Six had 18-plus points and one had 24-plus. See Rebirth Red.

• Green/White and White Quest—29 players. Nine had 18-plus points and one had 24-plus. With about a third of its players getting to six wins, it was one of the more reliable archetypes at the event. With only one player reaching eight wins, however, perhaps not the deck to be playing once you get to the Top 8 of an event.

• Boros—28 players. Seven had 18-plus points and none had 24-plus. A disappointing showing from a deck that was a major factor pre–Mirrodin Besieged, and that also got solid help in the form of Mirran Crusader and Hero of Oxid Ridge. Paul Rietzl was the lone bright spot, with 22 points and making it to the finals of the event. Perhaps twenty-eight players wasn't a large enough sample size, but this doesn't seem like a great choice at the moment.

Other disappointments included mono-Green ramp and Red aggro. Ten players played Green ramp, and none got to 18 points. Of the eight players running Goblins or RDW, only one got to 18 points, and he stopped at 18. In the case of Red, I suspect there just weren't enough players playing it for us to draw any useful conclusions.

There were a couple hopeful surprises: R/U/G control and White Steel. The biggest surprise about R/U/G was probably the fact that only fifteen players ran it. Leading up to Paris, it seemed to me that it was one of the dominant decks in Standard. Less of a surprise was that four of them finished with 18-plus points and two of those with 24-plus. Like many control decks, perhaps it had a high quantity of elite players running it, but I suspect we'll see this deck rise in popularity again, and for good reason. Like U/W control, it didn't get much of a boost from Mirrodin Besieged, so keep a close eye on this deck's trends as well.

Only nine players ran White Tempered Steel decks, but two of them did make it to 18-plus points (they both reached 21). This is another deck that got a nice assist from Mirrodin Besieged with cards like Signal Pest, Phyrexian Revoker, Ardent Recruit, and Master's Call. Perhaps with some further tuning, this archetype could become a factor in the metagame.

As usual, the environment seems to have a rock-paper-scissors feel to it. The addition of cards like Mirran Crusader, Signal Pest, Accorder Paladin, Hero of Oxid Ridge, and Contested War Zone have made the aggressive decks a little too fast for ramp decks to handle. Mirran Crusader and Sword of Feast and Famine are a particular problem for U/B control since it relies heavily on Black spot-removal. While the metagame became harsher for the big two, it made the environment friendlier for U/W control as a result. Not only does it have access to Crusader and the Sword to help with U/B, it's well-equipped for creature swarms with cards like Day of Judgment, Elspeth Tirel, and Gideon Jura. Further, ramp decks trending to Green Sun's Zenith instead of Summoning Trap probably works in favor of U/W for that matchup.

I believe that there will be a decline in the amount of traditional Valakut ramp and U/B control decks played, which will cause another major shift in the metagame. When that happens, aggressive decks may end up facing a sea of U/W control. Then, as Red and White aggression starts to go into hibernation, we'll probably see U/W decks become more metagamed against themselves, which should start things shifting once again. Thus the constructed wheel spins round and round. Enjoy the ride!