Worlds this past weekend explored three important formats, each with three big take home messages.
Standard
1. UB Control and Jace have pushed to the forefront of the Standard metagame
URG used to be where it was at. Lotus Cobra and Explore pushed you so far ahead on mana that your opponents couldn't catch up while Oracle of Mul Daya gave you another engine on top of Jace to grind people out with. Avenger of Zendikar was also the best win condition, killing everyone on the spot.
Then Vampires and Boros happened. UGR wasn't close to equipped to handle the volume of creatures these decks presented and both had spot removal disrupt URG's ramp. Still, even then UB wasn't where it was at to combat these decks. You were ill equipped to handle swarms of creatures, even with Consume the Meek.
Enter Grave Titan. Vampires really has no reasonable answer to this guy and he kills almost as fast as Avenger in the face of other clocks, letting you close before Valakut can overwhelm you. Enter Inquisition of Kozilek, which not only "kills" the problematic black creatures from Vampires but proactively answers almost all of the other early game threats UB fell to.
UB was the best positioned control deck for the Worlds metagame. Looking forward, expect one of the new questions to be "How do I beat Grave Titan if I want to be aggressive?" in a similar fashion to how a month ago people were asking about Frost Titan if they wanted to be a control deck. One way to do so is maximize aggression as to kill them or be able to burn through it, another would be to go bigger with something like Eldrazi Monument.
2. UW has found its niche
At the start of the format, low threat density was the name of the game. UGR and UB flourished as they could just Bolt, Doom Blade, or Leak the first relevant thing the opponent played then slam down their finisher before the opponent presented anything else.
Now, people have adapted. Vampires and Boros both play a higher volume of early threats to let them power through a Bolt. UW brings everyone back to reality with a good old Wrath effect and Gideon Jura. Playing these cards comes at the cost of answers to Primeval Titan however. One option to shore up this issue is Spell Pierce. Spell Pierce forces the Valakut deck to play slow, giving UW time to set up Planeswalkers to power through the first couple of threats. The Squadron Hawk based build piloted by Brian Kibler to a 6-0 record on Day 1 played the full four.
Like any control deck, this is a metagame call. UW control still fails in the same place it first did; its the smallest control deck. UB can pack more powerful cards due to the lack of focus on aggro and URG out manas you every time. Spell Pierce can help by sneaking you ahead in the early Jace war, but be prepared for an uphill battle if you take this deck into a control heavy metagame.
3. Go big or go home
Despite all the talk of control, the deck I view as the biggest leveling of the format from Worlds is Genesis Wave ramp. It might have even been too far ahead. While Valakut clearly has the highest raw power when it draws well, its average and below draws can be lacking. It also lacks the ability to do much other than summon a giant green monster and Hulk Smash them, which is fairly easy to plan for. Also, you are basically on a 4 outer to aggro on the draw and even if you Pyroclasm them they can play through it.
Genesis Wave fixes that. By detaching yourself from the Valakut endgame, you can move more readily to stronger ramp spells. Joraga Treespeaker and Lotus Cobra lead to more explosive average starts than Cultivate and Harrow. You also get to diversify your end game. David Williams' UG variety can just be a Jace-Frost Titan deck if all of it's mana sources are attacked and Alex West + Brian Kowal's mono-green build is also just an Elves deck. Your big guy plan also gets a lot better going long, as pretty much no matter what they have Wave is big enough to beat it. Valakut could end up in scenarios, especially against Frost Titan, where your threat would come too late to matter. With Wave, there really isn't a too late.
This is not to say the deck is without downsides. Just look at Dave Williams' feature match on day 1. While you gain more raw speed and the ability to power through Mana Leak with the new ramp package, you lose to resilience of just having lands. Suddenly your opponents pingers and burn turn into counters for your Time Walk. If this deck surges, expect a rebound in Red decks and specifically Searing Blaze.
Be ready. This deck will only get better with the shift from spot removal heavy aggro to control decks.
Scars Draft
1. You have to draft a cohesive deck
Scars is not a format where you can just take cards and get there. Your deck has to have a plan. Cards like Chrome Steed require a serious commitment in order to work. People talk a lot about going half and half on Infect being bad, but going half and half on Metalcraft is just as disastrous. If you want to activate Metalcraft on colored cards you need minimum 15 artifacts, probably more. Things like Myrsmith and Trinket Mage can add to the count here. Similarly, with infect you need to have a critical mass of creatures. Yeah that removal spell is good, but if pack three you are looking a bit short on poison guys and can't bail it might be better to take that Cystbearer so you can win a game. Even the off keyword strategies require a very solid curve to function.
While some plans might not work out, don't be afraid to try new ones, especially when the next set comes in. You never know what revels might await you.
2. Consider whether you actually want to give up power for synergy
Not every deck wants to play things like Gold Urn to turn on Carapace Forger or Vedalken Cetarch. People often quickly cut cards like Neurok Invisimancer despite them being really good in the abstract. This isn't talked about much, but Metalcraft is actually an archetype, not the "I'm not poison" default. During the draft you should always be evaluating this as a third option. The three most successful executions of this are Dinosaurs, the standard Ux fliers plus defense strategy that exists in every format, and RB beats or Furnace Celebration, but there are probably more. Even though Bleak Coven Vampires is really good, WB Burn doesn't have to be metalcrafting.
Scars really has three base archetypes, not two.
3. If you are building for an end game, make sure you actually have it.
This mostly applies to blue decks, as they are the easiest to fall into this trap with. Even if it means you are playing a Scrapdiver Serpent, make sure you can actually kill your opponent if you are trying to stall them with defensive bodies early. A couple of Chrome Steed is not a route to victory when the rest of your deck is Neurok Replica. You either need a critical mass of smaller threats or a few sufficiently large ones that will end the game on their own. While this is true in every format, it is easy to forget in this one because there are even more counts to watch than normal that are constantly being talked about.
Extended
1. Faeries' demise has been greatly exaggerated
Four drops and starting your real game on two is too clunky. There are too many aggro decks. You can't beat a Bloodbraid Elf. You can't beat a Volcanic Fallout. You can't beat a Great Sable Stag.
People keep saying these things, and it really doesn't mean anything.
Faeries is as good as ever, you just have to work for your wins. This means playing your answers to their threats better and building your answer base better. Your cards are still as good as they ever were, and back in standard I remember it taking your deck being Mono Red or having all of the aforementioned cards in the main to realistically be a favorite against Faeries as opposed to a coin flip.
Since then Faeries has gained some potent weapons in the fight. Disfigure is the clutch one drop removal spell you needed to maintain tempo against aggressive decks, upgrading from Peppersmoke to killing Fauna Shaman and Goblin Guide. Ratchet Bomb gives the deck the cheap Wrath effect it needed and Darkslick Shores is exactly the land the deck needed to make the mana work out. Finally, Scars of Mirrodin has brought realistic answers to Great Sable Stag. On top of Ratchet Bomb, John Randle's 6-0 Faeries deck ran Wall of Tanglecord, which not only brick walls Stag but works on a wide range of problematic creatures including Putrid Leech and Doran. Wurmcoil Engine not only beats Stag but represents its own end game that crushes the midrange attrition style decks like Jund.
You can also play Jace, the Mindsculptor, which does a solid Riptide Lab imitation. Mistbind Clique lock never sounded so good.
2. Extended is still a format where combo can thrive
There were no less than 6 viable, unique combo decks represented at Worlds this year.
First off is Pyromancer's Ascension. This deck isn't much different than the old Standard build and wins by doubling up on Time Warp, Lightning Bolt, cantrips, and possibly Call to Mind. This deck got all the buzz pre-Worlds as it lost nothing with the rotation and was a front runner for Amsterdam before the event, but fell short of expectations with only 2% of the field showing up with it. This was most likely due to the heavy saturation of Jund expected in the field. This deck won't beat Jund or Faeries any time soon, but there will come an event where it will shine. Just wait for the metagame to shift more towards control decks and people scare off all but the most devout Faeries players with hate.
Scapeshift was another survivor of the rotation. Searching up 6 Mountain and a Valakut still does 18 the same way it did before. The loss of Tarmogoyf was a dagger to the back up aggressive plan, but it can still work. However, two other versions have come up in it's place. One is essentially the Standard Valakut deck with Scapeshift functioning as the second win condition on top of Primeval Titan. One cute interaction from these lists is that Volcanic Fallout fills in for the last two damage while protecting you from a faster clock. The other build is based on the combo Prismatic Omen and Scapeshift. Your necessary land count with this combo reduces to six and your damage output reaches insane levels. The lists of this floating around play Knight of the Reliquary and Kitchen Finks as blockers and backup plan while using Wargate as a tutor for anything you need. Expect these decks to be more prevalent at the top tables than Ascension despite occupying the same midrange combo niche due to the fact they are better against Thoughtseize. Only needing to top deck one card to go from dead on board to game over is much easier than becoming the pyromancer on short notice.
Elves was a deck that saw a little play in Amsterdam but has found it's place in the format now that the other combo decks have left. The little green men represent one of the faster combo decks as well as having possibly the best plan B in the format. Enough one and two damage beats from Elves adds to twenty a lot faster than people expect and all of the cards are good value on their own without actually comboing out. The only problem with this deck is it gets hit by collateral hate aimed at all the other beat down decks, as well as Faeries due to Volcanic Fallout. This deck will always be a powerful option to consider. Keep it in mind at every point of the season.
The other already known creature-based combo deck is the WG hideaway deck Team Mythic designed . Your goal is to hide some monster like Iona under Mosswort Bridge or Windbrisk Heights and flip it, with the backup being just attack with solid Green and White creatures. What this deck lacks in raw power it makes up for in depth. You have so many cards that can actually just kill your opponent that answer light decks will be unable to play the control. While this deck will be decent the whole season, expect there to be a point later on when people have specified their answers to beat other threats to the point a Baneslayer Angel is enough to beat them.
UB Polymorph is the first of the new decks, unleashed in the MODO Championships by Akira Asahara. Using Bitterblossom and Mutavault as your "creatures", you hope to flip up an Emrakul and leave your opponent dead and boardless. As cool as this sounds, the deck is a bit gimmicky. When people think you are on Faeries they will likely play differently until they are facing down a giant alien, at which point they will start leaving up Bolt mana to counter the Polymorph. The deck is powerful when it works, but extremely fragile. I can't see this deck going far, but new technology might change that. The Polymorph package is fairly card light and is easily ported into a lot of other decks, like Faeries or Pyromancer's Ascension.
Finally, there is Necrotic Ooze combo aka "What if your Devoted Druid was also a Quillspike?". Using Fauna Shaman to find all the pieces the deck generates infinite mana and an infinite power Ooze, which then leads to a lethal attack or infinite Fauna Shaman activations which place a Molten-Tail Masticore in your graveyard to do a large amount of damage. Thornling hastes up the Ooze while providing trample and protection. A more complex combo with Grim Poppet exists which requires another creature to be in play that works as such
- Tap Necrotic Ooze for a mana with Devoted Druid, then untap with Druid.
- Remove the counter to activate Grim Poppet targeting the second creature.
- In response, repeat the first step. You are plus a mana with a Grim Poppet activation on the stack. Repeat as necessary to make infinite mana, infinite Fauna Shaman activations, and infinite Masticore activations.
Poppet can also just Wrath them if it is assembled with Devoted Druid in the absence of the rest of the combo. Conley Woods' take on this deck was to play a land destruction shell to supplement the combo, but there are other options. In Ann Arbor we had been working on this deck for a couple weeks in anticipation of Grand Prix Atlana and were finding success with a beatdown shell of Tidehollow Sculler, Knight of the Reliquary, and Kitchen Finks as support. I'm sure there is also a Vengevine build. Similarly to Elves, this deck has the bonus that all of its cards are good, bar the single Grim Poppet and/or Quillspike. You also get Thoughtseize and other hand disruption. The downside is that the combo is very clunky to assemble. This deck has the ability to grow, so expect to see it a lot at least early in the season.
3. Tempered Steel is a card to watch
Scars is only one set in and already artifact based decks have seen success. The Canadians showed up with a Esper based artifact beatdown deck featuring twelve Anthem effects and seventeen lands which placed two of them with exceptional records in the format. The key here was adding a more explosive element to the disruption package of Thoughtseize and Tidehollow Sculler. If the deck is good enough now, what does that mean for the future? Hate exists for the deck even if it is insane, but expect this deck to get even better with the next set.
Bonus: Legacy
Just one here:
From the view of someone used to various combo decks through the years of Extended, Survival is not all it's cracked up to be. The tools exist to compete with it. If it is to be banned, it should be because adapting to it further constricts what should be an extremely broad format similarly to what Counterbalance did a couple years ago.
Don't get me wrong, the deck is really good. The decks it is posting up insane numbers against just aren't adapted. Survival has a very linear game plan of resolving a two mana enchantment. It has decent backup to do so and a fair amount of redundancy. But it still has only one big plan. The secondary plan is going to fall short against most other deck's main plans.
The current builds of everything are just garbage against it. Aggro loses to it, but that's fine as its a combo deck. Counterbalance is not live in a relevant time spectrum and Merfolk is lacking as Daze and Wasteland aren't good enough on turn against a two mana threat. If you want to counter their stuff, decks like Tempo Thresh and Team America are where its at, aiming to land one cheap threat while presenting hard counters through the whole game. The current builds of GB Attrition that "fight it" aren't even well built to do so. They rely on too slow of a clock in Knight of the Reliquary. Play some real beats. You need to Duress their threat then kill them before they draw the next Survival. The only decks that are actually built well are combo, and no one actually plays those who knows how to.
In a PTQ/GP filled format these kinks would be ironed out by now and we would know how overpowered the deck was or wasn't. Legacy just moves at a glacial pace due to the temporal distance between major events, card availability issues, lack of travel incentive to major events, and other factors. It's currently difficult to tell if Survival's dominance is similar to Elves in Berlin (strong but mostly due to lack of adaption) or more like Dark Depths last year (way better than everything else). To be entirely fair, having the deck live long enough to figure this out might be unhealthy. I'm not remotely qualified to judge that. But, based on power level of the current deck alone, I would not recommend Survival for banning at this point.