As you’re reading this, chances are I’m colder than you are. Unless you’re also in Montreal for Pro Tour: Gatecrash. In that case, welcome to my frozen, scarf-addled discomfort. There was a reason I moved to Texas three years ago, leaving behind a good job, family, and friends. That reason was winter. Also Iowa-bred ennui, but that’s another story.

That said, despite having to dig out a winter coat from the very back of my closet, I’m excited for this Pro Tour. Since I play more Standard than any other Constructed format, Pro Tours featuring that format are often my favorite. You can always expect to find fascinating features, photos, and the occasional folly at Standard Pro Tours. And I expect this one to match all of those feats.

In that vein, here’s a preview of what I expect you should expect at Pro Tour: Gatecrash.

Draft

But it’s important not to dismiss the drafting rounds. Doing so almost inevitably means you’ll miss lessons not only about the format, but drafting in general.

The Pro Tour I always mentally revisit when looking at a Draft format is Pro Tour: Geneva in 2007, won in spectacular fashion by Mike Hron. The format was Time Spiral block Limited, and black was widely considered to be the worst color.

Enter Mike Hron, who actively sought out black and rode it all the way to the Top 8, where he, somewhat ironically, drafted green, the color he thought was actually the worst (and which conventional wisdom said was the best or second best).

I think it’s quite possible we could be headed for a similar situation in Montreal. Dimir has been widely panned as terrible, something canny drafters can potentially exploit. Don’t get me wrong, Dimir is probably the shallowest guild and the hardest to build and draft, but it has some exceptionally powerful cards and a heap of removal. I can absolutely see someone taking the title on the back of the sneakiest guild. After all, Shadow Slice, Hands of Binding, and the various unblockable Rogues are all very strong cards. Dimir may not be as deep as the other guilds, but maybe it doesn’t have to be.

Constructed and the Fantasy Pro Tour

So, clearly, I’m way into the Fantasy Pro Tour.

Fortunately, there’s only one “Sunday” for this game, and the stakes are even more imagined, so I can, for the most part, not throw my hands up in disgust when Boros Reckoner narrowly defeats Huntmaster of the Fells because of a lucky Bonfire of the Damned reveal.

But that doesn’t mean I haven’t put a ton of (read: too much) thought into my lineup for PT: Gatecrash. I even changed my lineup (which had already shifted probably half a dozen times) while writing this very article. What can I say? I’m very convincing to myself.

It’s also an excellent exercise in predicting the metagame. I could very well be way off (my choices are colored by the continuing success of Naya), but this gives a good picture of the type of metagame I expect to see in Montreal.

In recent years, the Standard Pro Tour has been largely defined by known archetypes spiced up with one or two breakout decks that take advantage of new cards (Spirits in Honolulu with Lingering Souls, Caw-Blade in Paris with Sword of Feast and Famine), and I expect that will continue in Montreal. However, Gatecrash might be a bit less influential than previous sets outside its (admittedly significant) contributions to mana bases.

That said, I have my eye on W/U/Reckoner decks, with Reckoner subbing in for possibly Geist of Saint Traft or giving the deck two powerful 3-drops. As a bonus, it is able to play the backdoor infinite-life combo of Reckoner, Boros Charm, and Azorius Charm (Boros Charm makes Reckoner indestructible, Azorius Charm gives it lifelink, and Reckoner deals itself damage with each trigger) with three cards it probably wants to play anyway.

I’m also mostly in love with an Esper Duskmantle Seer deck, but we’ll get to that.

So, for those fantasy aficionados out there, here’s how my lineup stacks up. Remember that scoring is based on number of appearances in the decks that score at least 18 points in the Standard portion of the event.

Also note that, though, yes, I do talk to and interview the pros at every event, I have no inside knowledge of their deck choices at this point and would not publicly use that information on something like a Fantasy Pro Tour even if I did. These are completely pulled from my own expectations.

After much ado, here are my picks along with explanations, giving a snapshot of what I expect the metagame to look like in Montreal.

Planeswalker – Jace, Memory Adept

There aren’t a ton of options for this category, just as there aren’t a ton of planeswalkers seeing play right now. Garruk, Primal Hunter sees some play in Jund, Sorin, Lord of Innistrad, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, Liliana of the Veil, and Jace, Architect of Thought are all finding their ways into decklists, but none more so than the financial rocket ship that is Jace, Memory Adept, which has become the go-to way to win control mirrors. I don’t actually expect true control to be widely played this weekend, but when it is played, this’ll be the guy. Relentless gets the nod because of the general strength of green (especially Stomping Ground) and its effectiveness against Izzet Staticaster.

Large Creature (5 or more mana) – Thundermaw Hellkite

Angel of Glory's Rise is likely to be the reanimation target of choice and could take the top spot of that deck breaks out, but given its success in Atlanta, I expect more players to come prepared with hate. Obzedat, Ghost Council and Prime Speaker Zegana are both attractive new choices, but right now, no large creature sees as much play as Thundermaw Hellkite or Thragtusk. With mono-red, Jund, Rakdos, R/W/U, and some Naya decks all adapting the Hellkite, I expect he’ll edge out the previously format-defining 5-drop.

Medium Creature (3 to 4 mana) – Huntmaster of the Fells

Naturally, I want to say Duskmantle Seer, but even if that guy does make a splash, it’s unlikely going to be in sizeable enough numbers to make a dent. Were this a draft, I might take a late-round flyer on Seer, but since I get to pick whatever I want, I go with the numbers. And the numbers say Huntmaster of the Fells by a country mile, finding a spot in Jund, Naya, some R/G decks, and Human Reanimator.

Hellrider could take Boros Reckoner’s spot, but I expect some enterprising spirit might have success putting Reckoner in the Geist of Saint Traft spot in R/W/U, so I’ll give it a slight nod. Restoration Angel is my pick for most likely to overtake Huntmaster because, well, it’s Restoration Angel. Geist of Saint Traft sees play in both Ghost Pants (the hexproof deck) and W/U(/R) decks. Oh, and Vampire Nighthawk is a dark horse in this category, which looks to be one of the two deepest categories.

Small Creature (3 or less mana) – Avacyn's Pilgrim

Experiment One could potentially be the breakout card of the tournament, but I’m not ready to make that leap without some kind of supporting evidence. The card appears to be the real deal, but maybe not real enough to overrun the metagame. Instead, I feel that we have a race between the green mana accelerators and the mono-red four-ofs. If someone can make blue decks work, their standard bearer will obviously be Snapcaster Mage.

Instant – Searing Spear

Sphinx's Revelation is sweet, but it is almost never played without four Azorius Charm already slotted in, so that’s out. Boros Charm is similarly fantastic, but it almost never comes without Searing Spear attached as a three- or four-of. Spear is an excellent removal spell, but it loses some value with Boros Reckoner in the format. Victim of Night is another dark horse pick, mostly because it kills more relevant things these days than when Zombies was running rampant. It can’t hit Huntmaster of the Fells, Olivia Voldaren, Stromkirk Noble, or Falkenrath Noble, but at instant speed, nothing can get all of those in addition to Restoration Angel, Boros Reckoner, Thundermaw Hellkite, Experiment One, and Hellrider. Victim of Night is basically Doom Blade right now.

Sorcery – Pillar of Flame

Again, in a creature-based format, the best removal gets the nod. Pillar of Flame is quite good right now, killing both early aggressors such as Rakdos Cackler and more explosive, but still small, targets such as Huntmaster of the Fells and Silverblade Paladin. Supreme Verdict is the control sweeper of choice, and I could see it overtaking Pillar if players come prepared to beat midrange. Unburial Rites is its own archetype, and Farseek goes in a ton of green decks. Mizzium Mortars could be poised for a breakout, as both early removal and sweepers are becoming more and more necessary. Slaughter Games has the potential to be one of the most-played sideboard cards, especially among Jund decks.

Enchantment – Rancor

Honorable Mention: Blind Obedience

Here’s another smaller category. We may see Blind Obedience having a breakout tour, but it doesn’t strike me as the type of card any deck would want four of (and Atlanta bears this out). Rancor is a clear choice here.

Artifact – Grafdigger's Cage

Unless some 5-color Prophetic Prism deck breaks out, this category is pretty weak. Given the Human Reanimator deck, I guess Grafdigger's Cage has the possibility to be a highly-played sideboard card. Nothing else catches my attention.

Nonbasic Land – Stomping Ground

The Innistrad ability lands (Kessig Wolf Run, Gavony Township, etc.) are surely going to show up, but we’re all kidding ourselves if we think anything other than the shock lands and Cavern of Souls are going to be played en masse. Stomping Ground seems the most likely (if you can’t tell from my other picks), making the cut in R/G aggro, Naya midrange, Humans, and Human Reanimator. Breeding Pool, Hallowed Fountain, and Temple Garden are probably next on this list. But, really, this could be anything.

New Set Card – Stomping Ground

Honorable Mentions: Boros Charm, All the other shock lands, Boros Reckoner, Experiment One, Ghor-Clan Rampager

I wanted to pick one of these sweet spells, but, let’s be honest, whatever sweet spell is the most played out of Gatecrash, the corresponding shock lands that can cast it will outnumber it. Since I said Stomping Ground would be the most played nonbasic land, I’ve gotta stick with it here.

Pro Tour Tiebreaker – Shuhei Nakamura

I’ll also closely be watching the respective performances of ChannelFireball and #TeamSCG. These two superteams individually hold more talent on their rosters than pretty much any teams in the history of the game. Not only will their performances add to already incredible résumés, but they’re the two teams likely to define the Standard metagame going forward.

After Honolulu last year, ChannelFireball’s Huntmaster of the Fells–flavored Primeval Titan deck became a format mainstay, while the Lingering Spirits deck from #TeamSCG’s precursor (Sam Black, Jon Finkel, and the rest of the mostly East Coast crew) redefined how Delver decks were built. #TeamSCG has some of the best deck-building minds in the game’s history on its roster, and if they don’t come up with something original, I strongly suspect something original isn’t viable.

Bonus Decklist

Speaking of something original, I’ve had a number of inquiries into where I’m at with Duskmantle Seer. I 4–0’d a local tournament with the following list, and while the sample size is small, the deck felt very, very good against both control and aggressive strategies.

"Duskmantle Esper"

• Creatures (12)
• 2 Restoration Angel
• 3 Augur of Bolas
• 3 Snapcaster Mage
• 4 Duskmantle Seer

• Spells (23)
• 1 Dramatic Rescue
• 1 Tragic Slip
• 2 Dissipate
• 2 Think Twice
• 2 Victim of Night
• 3 Sphinx's Revelation
• 4 Azorius Charm
• 4 Thought Scour
• 1 Supreme Verdict
• 3 Lingering Souls

• Lands (25)
• 2 Island
• 1 Moorland Haunt
• 2 Godless Shrine
• 4 Drowned Catacomb
• 4 Glacial Fortress
• 4 Hallowed Fountain
• 4 Isolated Chapel
• 4 Watery Grave

• Sideboard (15)
• 2 Jace, Memory Adept
• 2 Negate
• 1 Dispel
• 1 Liliana of the Veil
• 2 Devour Flesh
• 2 Supreme Verdict
• 1 Rhox Faithmender
• 3 Rest in Peace
• 1 Grafdigger's Cage

Buy This Deck