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Six Shadows over Innistrad

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Spoiler season is brewer season. I'm looking at cards as they're spoiled over the next few weeks to build decks in whatever format I can think of for them. Let's start with some Standard ideas.

What Doesn't Matter in a Block Rotation?

Most articles I've read investigating the madness that is a Standard rotation reach a delirium quickly, either in discussing new cards as new overlords or in penning jeremiads about departing cards. These things make some sense once an entire new set is spoiled, but until then, they aren't worth much—partial context is no context. Gatecrash is a prime example, as Boros Reckoner didn't have a preview, being revealed to the world with the entire set as the visual spoiler was complete. Boros Reckoner had a quick and major impact on Standard, and metagame predictions before it was revealed didn't mean much.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
So what are some common topics this time of year that are discussed too much given this lack of context?

Existing Decks — The approach calculating, "New metagame = Current metagame − Rotating decks + ???" is obviously flawed, and yet, pros employ it constantly. It's important to be aware of the current metagame since the first week or two will feature those decks as brewing continues to assess the new cards. But it only takes one new deck to force the rest of the metagame to realign, and it might realign so much that what was known becomes worthless. Yes, Eldrazi Ramp seems well-positioned because it only loses Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. But if Shadows over Innistrad creates a disruption-heavy deck, it might not matter that Eldrazi Ramp is intact—it might be an intact relic.

Most of What's Rotating Out — This is the flipside of looking at existing decks: A creature or archetype rotating doesn't mean much by itself. In particular, there's a temptation to look at a rotating card, find the closest match in the new format, and assume the deck will function the same. This rarely works because the new card will be at a different mana cost and have different vulnerabilities. If Shadows over Innistrad has a 2rr 3/4 flyer with haste—call it Falkenrath Marauders Jr.—that doesn't mean it's the new Mantis Rider as a straight swap. Costing more, costing multiple red mana, and lacking vigilance . . . these are all important differences. Being a 4-drop means the deck would need a new 3-drop and possibly remove another 4-drop. Falkenrath Marauders Jr. can't be a straight swap for Mantis Rider; that's not how decks or metagames work.

What can we look at meaningfully until then?

Existing Mechanics — Discussing mechanics mid-spoiler-season is productive because they imply an entire context. By seeing some madness cards along with discard outlets, we're aware that more are coming and can draw reasonable inferences. Whether a deck can be formed from those mechanics depends largely on how good cards of the mechanic are past the initial exciting ones—the movie behind the trailer, in a sense. Incorrigible Youths seems Standard-playable. If it's the only good madness card, it probably won't matter, but it is more correct than not to assume Wizards of the Coast wants us to play the new stuff.

Lands — This is especially true with the departure of fetch lands, but it's true anytime; you can't build ambitious decks without the lands to glue them together. I think everyone who's looked at a Rally the Ancestors list has thought it's a miracle it wins, but the mana has been so good that decks like it, Dark Jeskai, and Mardu Green have succeeded.

Last time we were in Innistrad, we saw the Isolated Chapel cycle for enemy colors and the cycle including Gavony Township and Kessig Wolf Run for allied colors. Neither cycle contains fetch lands or tri-lands for enabling decks like Rally the Ancestors; even if the creatures are there to make a creature-synergy deck like that in Shadows over Innistrad Standard, the mana almost certainly won't permit it. Mana is the most important context for any format; for example, if all the color-fixing enters the battlefield tapped, that creates a format in which the fastest decks will be mono-colored (or, for another year, colorless).

Sideboard-Type Cards — A format's lands say what decks can do; sideboard-type cards say what decks can't do. I say "sideboard-type" because several decent cards these days come with extra text, such as Anafenza, the Foremost's exile effect. Rally the Ancestors had mana saying it could do anything it wanted; the cards that said it couldn't were Anafenza, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, Hallowed Moonlight, and Cranial Archive. Anafenza and Kalitas being legendary turned Reflector Mage into an override button, and Cranial Archive is weak as graveyard answers go; the "can't" cards weren't as good as the "can"s, leading to the archetype running amok. Add Rest in Peace or Grafdigger's Cage to the format, and things are probably different.

So what do the new mechanics tell us about how things might play out?

Madness (and Delirium)

Madness has quite the tournament pedigree, with G/U Madness being among the most synergistic brews of all time. The linked deck from Hall of Famer Dave Humpherys had twelve discard outlets, eleven madness creatures and spells (fourteen counting Wonder), and twelve flashback spells. We've seen some great discard outlets so far and some fine madness cards; what we don't know is what fills the flashback third of the equation. Is it delirium? Is it Zombies to reanimate later with a card like Restless Dead? It's unclear for now, but we can try filling it based on what we know:

With only Incorrigible Youths and Fiery Temper shown for madness at the time I made this deck, the incentives for madness are as yet unknown. Until more are revealed, the safer plan seems to be using the discard outlets as ways to fill the graveyard and either fuel delirium or bring back important creatures as the game goes long. Heir of Falkenrath, Ravenous Bloodseeker, and Lightning Axe are the primary discard outlets, with support from Tormenting Voice, Macabre Waltz, Liliana, Defiant Necromancer, and Avaricious Dragon. Depending on how the format shakes out, Sinister Concoction might be better than Lightning Axe, or a mix might be appropriate.

The other side of the deck involves bringing things back from the graveyard or being happy that things are there; Mindwrack Demon wants to hit delirium, and Liliana, Heretical Healer, Kolaghan's Command, Foul Renewal, and Macabre Waltz can return creatures from the graveyard. While all those synergies are going on, this is still a deck with six 4-mana, 4-power flying beatsticks, so it's not as though it has to draw all its synergies to win. If either Avaricious Dragon or Mindwrack Demon turn out to be too much synergy and not independently good enough, Thunderbreak Regent can substitute.

Besides its role as a finisher, I included Dragonlord Kolaghan to highlight the sideboard-type text regarding opponents' graveyards. If self-mill strategies become prominent, Dragonlord Kolaghan is an already playable card with a chance to severely punish those strategies.

Werewolves (and Investigate)

As a group, Werewolves didn't have high playability in Innistrad Standard. Reckless Waif, Mayor of Avabruck, Daybreak Ranger, and Huntmaster of the Fells (to go up the curve) saw varying levels of play, but they rarely saw any play together as Werewolves; they were independently good cards that pressured opponents in unusual ways. Part of why it didn't work is that it was difficult to keep developing the board when you wanted to take a turn off from casting a spell. I tried several things to get around it. Ambush Viper was among my favorites; I also had a U/R deck with Mana Leak and Izzet Charm.

Both were okay approaches, but not as good as having a Werewolf who gives you things to do on your turn if you don't want to cast a spell. And although investigate isn't exciting yet as a mechanic (Master of Etherium seems unlikely to show up in Innistrad), paying 2 mana to draw a card is a fine use of your turn if you want to transform creatures while progressing the game. Combining those ideas into a deck:

It was unclear from what's been spoiled whether a Collected Company route or Archangel Avacyn flash route was more viable; I went with Collected Company because Werewolves tend to have low mana costs, meaning the less synergistic creatures in this build can be replaced if the other Werewolves are upgrades.

Duskwatch Recruiter might be too small on its stats to be worth building around, but its Ponder-esque (not Ponderous) ability does good work in the late game while providing something to do in the early game that isn't casting a spell. The Krallenhorde Howler backside makes flash creatures scary and megamorph creatures cost 2 mana to cast face down.

Collected Company has a new friend in Bygone Bishop. Investigate seems to be at its best in decks like this that don't depend on it but occasionally run out of gas. Mentor of the Meek was less demanding on mana to draw a card, but it asked for the payment upfront; Bygone Bishop's investigate allows for later payment, when you don't have anything else to do.

Other flash elements include Vile Redeemer, a fine body on its own that, with Blighted Steppe's colorless mana, can function as sweeper resilience. Archangel Avacyn also has flash and can mess with sweepers; while the rest of this deck dies to Avacyn, the Purifier, a 6/5 flyer out of a Collected Company deck is unexpected and tough to deal with. (Also, you can save your team by responding to Avacyn, the Purifier's trigger with another Archangel Avacyn. She's so good, she saves creatures from herself.) Stasis Snare and Dromoka's Command are proven performers; in a Werewolf deck, they take on extra importance.

Like the B/R deck, this deck is waiting for more cards of the relevant mechanics to be spoiled; when they are, the idea will make more sense. If the best ones can be found with Collected Company, I'd tweak this list; if they can't, a more Archangel Avacyn route (and don't forget Hixus, Prison Warden) is where I would go, as Pack Guardian is another spoiled card with flash blowout potential.

Conclusion

While we don't yet know where the mana and mechanics will take us, what's known is exciting. There's a lot left to be spoiled, and we don't have much context for what's been spoiled, but it appears the mechanics can go to interesting places. What are you looking forward to?


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