[easybox]Editor's Note: This article weighed in at over 5,000 words. I've decided to split it into two parts. Today will be Mythics and Rares A-D, tomorrow will be Part 2 which will finish out the article. -- Trick[/easybox]
Hi Everyone, and welcome to my first financially-minded set review. I'll be gazing into the crystal ball and seeing what prices are going up, what ones are going down, and what ones are staying right where they are. First up I'll be looking at every Mythic card, and in general this is a very playable set of mythics, with only a couple of bulk-ish ones that you'll groan at opening. I'll also go through every rare and while there's a lot more bulk to be had at that level there are also a couple of potentially undervalued sleepers you might like to pick up. Keep in mind when evaluating your purchases/trades that since the introduction of mythics, normal rares have generally kept a lower value due to lower set size and more packs being opened. Mythics on the other hand – well, we've got two at $50 plus in standard at the moment. Lastly I'll add some general comments and mention any commons or uncommons that catch my eye. Let's go!
Mythics
All is Dust, $15 - Up (gradually, to $20ish)
The important thing for playable wrath effects is that you have to be able to get some advantage out of resetting the board - generally either keeping you alive and putting you ahead on cards, or having a loophole to let you upset the balance of the universal effect. With the original Wrath of God, you can blow away your opponent's early threats before they kill you, and drop something scary into play to take over the game. Planar Cleansing, on the other hand, is too slow to save you from an early rush and also negates any advantage you were trying to generate by playing other kinds of permanents like Everflowing Chalice or Elspeth.
All Is Dust is easier to cast than Cleansing despite its higher CMC and is just begging to be unbalanced - it won't touch your Chalice or your Eldrazi creatures, while wiping out your opponent's creatures, planeswalkers, enchantments, and whatever other coloured stuff they're using. This also brings a universal answer to every colour - a modern day Nevinyrral's Disk - so black can answer artifacts, red can handle enchantments, and green can deal with creatures conveniently and without overpaying too much. Also note that the next block is an artifact-centred block, and while there are certain to be coloured artifacts present you can expect a good deal of new colourless cards to pair with All is Dust as well.
Cast Through Time, $2 - Stable
Bulk Mythic, priced appropriately. Moving right along...
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, $15 - Stable
Setting aside the mana cost, this is among the most powerful creatures ever printed. It's also a legendary mythic, which never hurts a card's value, and it will certainly be tried in any deck that wants to cheat out Eldrazi as after they hit the board Emrakul is in a class of its own. EDH and casual Timmies everywhere are salivating over this card, and Mike Flores is even talking about hardcasting it in standard. All this adds up to what should be a pretty expensive card, however Emrakul is the pre-release foil for Rise of the Eldrazi so a lot of players will have already picked up some over the weekend. As such I expect it to stay fairly stable in the teens, dipping down to $10 if it sees little to no standard play and rising up to $20 if it is in a tier-1 deck.
Gideon Jura, $40 - Stable
Gideon's flavour has him diving head first into battles against impossible odds, which is quite appropriate given the massive task ahead of him if he wants to break into standard - convince white mages he is better than Baneslayer Angel. Or at least worth running alongside the current belle of the ball. All three of his abilities are very strong, whether he is just 3 assassinates, or a Dawnglare Invoker with a free activation, or a damage-immune 6/6 creature on the attack with man-land style resilience to removal. Personally I think he is very playable, and his price will likely stay at around the $40 mark.
Hellcarver Demon, $6 - Down
I had a bit of a rant on Gwafa's Bazaar when I saw SCG preordering these at fifteen dollars. Hellcarver Demon has a powerful effect but at too great a cost to be competitive outside of a very specific combo deck that wins the game after one hit with him, and the tools to make sure he connects. This deck doesn't currently exist and so this card is a bulk Mythic, but will appeal to the player segment who likes these "deal with the devil" type of cards.
Kargan Dragonlord, $11 - Stable
A close relative of Figure of Destiny, he is actually much easier to level up than that powerhouse. He isn't a one drop so he won't be tutorable with Ranger of Eos, but he is excellent at every stage of the game. Early he is a mediocre 2/2 for 2 but he quickly becomes so much more. After a couple of turns of spare mana he can be a 4/4 flier, and later in the game when you don't have anything relevant to do with your hand he becomes a real monster. If red decks are going to evolve to beat Wall of Omens, the Dragonlord will be a key part of that. Pat Chapin likes him and I do too. As a potentially staple mythic $11 seems a perfectly reasonable price.
Khalni Hydra, $5 - Down
Sorry Primalcrux fans, this is a bulk mythic. On the plus side, you should be able to get him for $2 or so in a few months time.
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, $30 - Down
Wizards really pulled a fast one with Kozilek - previewed way before everything else, here was an incredibly splashy, powerful, mythic monster. Preorders quickly became available at $30. Now he is just one Eldrazi amongst many and while I think he is the most powerful Eldrazi you might actually want to cast, he will still only be a one or two of in a small number of decks. His price will approximate Abyssal Persecutor's trajectory and while you will most likely see him ending games in tournaments as well as on many, many kitchen tables, $30 is unsustainable except for the most powerful and versatile mythics in the format.
Lighthouse Chronologist, $6 - Down
This is a card that shows off exactly why sorcery speed levelling is so distasteful on some cards, as traditional monoblue decks want to keep their mana available to represent counterspells, bounce, and so on. Tapping down lands to make a slightly bigger blocker seems like a poor use of the blue mage's mana, especially when it takes 6 mana total to get it out of Lightning Bolt range. Additionally you can't use Day of Judgment as an emergency reset button without killing the Chronologist you've invested time and mana into! This is one for the casual fans and it is a potential hit for that crowd, but casual favourites tend to start low while the set is being drafted and Chronologist should fall down to around $2-$3.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence, $10 - Up
Unique abilities are always difficult to assess, especially unique hosers. Mindlock Orb is one card in this category that is now a dollar rare at best. I expect Linvala to become a chase mythic from this set for several reasons. One, her ability is basically free. She is a 3/4 flier for 4, which is perfectly reasonable - and crucially, out of Bolt range. Secondly, her ability is one-sided meaning unlike Damping Matrix it won't hose your combo as well. Thirdly her ability is just so powerful. Creatures are the focus of the game these days, and activated abilities are everywhere. Linvala turns off level up, Llanowar Elves, Knight of the Reliquary, Vampire Hexmage, Cunning Sparkmage, Spawn tokens and the list goes on! Lastly she has a number of other price-boosting advantages - Legendary, Angel creature type, leggy babe artwork. I am very impressed with the potential of Linvala and I'm certain she'll be in demand in one format or another.
Nirkana Revenant, $7 - Stable
I have to admit I'm hedging my bets here, if a mono-black vampires/control deck emerges that wants to play Eldrazi this is a really powerful accelerating option. That aside, if you're at six to play Revenant in a normal vampires deck I think you'd rather just play Bloodwitch. Even if this sees no competitive play it should hold up at about $5 as vampires are a popular casual tribe and it is a great stepping stone to big Drain Lifes and such in casual monoblack control.
Sarkhan the Mad, $15 - Stable
Opinion is wildly divided on the new Sarkhan, and while I think he is good his eventual price will depend on him finding a deck. Jund or Red/Black aggro might like to play him and people are certainly going to test it - if it turns out to be unplayable it'll slip down past $10, if it is the stone cold nuts it'll skyrocket past $30. My prediction is somewhere in the middle - it'll be a playable option for those decks, but not an automatic 4-of, so $15 seems about right.
Transcendent Master, $6 - Slightly down ($4-$5)
Starting as a 3/3 for 3, if you invest another 6 mana it becomes a 6/6 lifelink. With another 6 mana, it becomes a 9/9 indestructible lifelink. I think levellers are going to be on the whole good and Transcendent Master is the card that really changed my thinking on them. The key is that each of the master's evolutions is solid, so you won't mind just having a 3/3 for 3, and you'll be even happier to upgrade it into a mini-Baneslayer. The other important thing is that unlike Figure of Destiny, you can get to the later levels gradually - you don't need 6 coloured mana all on one turn, you can level up a couple of times each turn when you have nothing else to use the mana for. I think $6 is slightly high but if you can find anyone who rates him as a bulk mythic, scoop them up cheerfully at a couple of bucks.
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre, $10 - Down
One of the Eldrazi Titans has got to be the loser, and unfortunately I think it's going to be Ulamog. For an extra mana and with 2 less power and toughness than Kozilek, you get... Vindicate? Instead of Tidings? This seems like a really weak effect in comparison and it's improbable that any deck would rather play this than Kozilek. It is a different world with Rise of the Eldrazi in the mix and I could be misevaluating the relative power of the two cards. At the present time though I think Ulamog will be shunned and the price will respond accordingly.
Vengevine, $25 - Down
There is a lot of hype surrounding this guy and a 4/3 haste for 4 that occasionally comes out of your graveyard is certainly a strong card. However I think people are a bit overheated on this one. The condition is not that easy to satisfy in Jund, with its awkward coloured mana costs you'll be relying on Bloodbraid to trigger it most of the time. Naya on the other hand can trigger it more easily with the Nacatls and Mana-dorks, but Naya already has eight bomb 4 drops. Will it really want to make room? Time will tell but I don't think Vengevine is the four-of staple in both that its price would indicate. On the plus side he lends himself to Vengaboys-themed pun deck names which is a strong incentive for me to play him.
Rares
Angelheart Vial, $0.75 - Up
I am partial to seemingly-do-nothing cards like this, but it is a lot of mana to invest to get a fairly marginal effect. That said I think charge counters are going to be a theme in the upcoming Scars of Mirrodin block, based on this card and Surrakar Spellblade. When that happens Vial could be good - and since it's already at bulk prices, it can't really go down.
Awakening Zone, $5 - Up
Bitterblossom was a good card, right? Goblin Assault is a similar card that is less good, but you couldn't use those goblins defensively. Awakening Zone provides you with a pseudo-forcefield of blockers that can also provide you a storage land style stockpile of mana. I am predicting this will be immensely playable and see a mild rise in response to the amount of play it sees. It is in a preconstructed deck which basically precludes it's price going above $10, but I expect it will reach $7 or $8 pretty easily.
Baneful Omen, $0.75 - Stable
At best, it is a Form of the Dragon-like enchantment for 7 mana, and with none of the support that made Form playable in extended. At worst you spend seven mana, flip over a land and then get killed by an attacking Mindless Null. Bulk rare.
Bear Umbra, $1.50 - Stable or Up
This is a very powerful effect at a reasonable cost, but Auras are notorious for their unplayability in constructed. If it gets broken - and it is an entirely breakable effect, see Hellkite Charger - it will rise, while even if it never touches a standard table it will be popular in casual along the lines of Seedborn Muse.
Conquering Manticore, $0.75 - Stable
No red deck currently exists that wants a 6 mana spell and so the Manticore gets to stay at bulk prices. It is interesting in that it gets around the card disadvantage of Threaten, but I don't see where it might fit.
Consume the Meek, $6 - Up
Wow! What I'm seeing is a 5 mana instant speed Damnation, and if Jund decks start slowing down and playing bigger spells this is a powerful weapon in their arsenal. The things it doesn't kill in current standard are few and far between, and the things it does kill that you might not immediately notice include spawn tokens and manlands. All Is Dust is currently overshadowing this card but be warned, black decks mean business. This will be extremely powerful paired with the following card...
Consuming Vapors, $5 - Stable
When this started at $3 I was flabbergasted, as it basically Gatekeepers twice without a heavy black commitment - it can't carry an Umezawa's Jitte in extended or swing as a 4/3 flier in standard, but it kills two guys and gains you some life to boot. I especially like it after your Consume the Meek clears out their Noble Hierarchs etc, leaving a Baneslayer Angel or something to gain you a hefty amount of life. One way to illustrate how strong this card is for control, picture yourself casting this on the 4th turn against a midrange deck with one creature in play. You clear their board, and then on their turn... what do they do? They can't play a single guy because he'll just die, so you basically get a Time Walk. $5 looks about right as the card is not for every deck and you can play around it with token generation and so forth, but in the new format it seems like total gas.
Coralhelm Commander, $1 - Stable, then Up
While blue is not the most aggressive colour in the current aggressive format, Commander adds another to the list of playable aggressive merfolk and eventually there may be a critical mass of them in standard to the point that they are a deck again. Keep an eye on future spoilers for little blue men, then it might be worth picking up a set of these and the Sovereigns.
Deathless Angel, $2.50 - Down
There are a bunch of awesome six drops in this new set, but at the moment they don't seem much better than our 4s and 5s. I'm calling most of them bulk rares.
Devastating Summons, $0.75 - Stable
Petr Brozek or Adrian Sullivan might be planning to do something with this, but it is too all-in for me in a format with an instant speed wrath + Smother.
Disaster Radius, $0.75 - Stable
This is fantastic in a slow multiplayer format like EDH, but it's too expensive for standard. Bulk.
Dormant Gomazoa, $0.75 - Stable
I love this card, and I will do my darnedest to break it while it's in standard. Until that happens though it belongs in the dollar bin, unfortunately.
Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief, $2 - Up (Marginally)
At the same mana cost and same size as Malakir Bloodwitch, a direct comparison is inevitable - and useful. Trading in Protection from White and the marginal life drain ability, Drana gives you a powerful, repeatable removal effect instead. While protection is incredibly strong in the right matchups, it is pretty irrelevant against Jund. Drana is in an intro pack so don't expect her price to skyrocket but I think she's worth a little more than two bucks.