Readers!
By now we've had a chance to play in prerelease events and some events on Arena and we've had a chance to handle War of the Spark cards. The set is amazing and bound to impact a lot of our decks. It's also a fairly powerful Limited format with a ton of removal, a lot of bombs and with each color having a better-defined role than in almost any set in the past. Since we've known the full set for a few weeks, EDHREC has been gathering data and has ranked the entire set by number of times a card was included in a deck submitted to the database. These inclusions were made before a lot of the cards were played with by anyone and while some people may have proxied the cards to try them out with their groups, a lot of this ranking is based solely on theorycrafting. People know what they want to try in their decks, certainly, but I think some of the positions are bound to shift based on how the cards over- or under-performed in gameplay. Playing Limited isn't the best gauge for how a card will work in Commander games, but it does give me a sense of which cards are bound to trend in different directions. Let's look at some cards in the set and how they're ranked and discuss whether or not they're on their way up or down. If you want to peruse the full list yourself, it's at this link, or you can go to EDHREC, click "sets" at the top of the page and pick "War of the Spark" in the dropdown menu. You can browse through other sets while you're at it - it's a lot of fun to see which cards rank where.
Let's get our hands dirty, shall we?
The Commanders
Feather, the Redeemed and Niv-Mizzet Reborn being ranked on top is no surprise and neither is Ilharg, the Raze-Boar in the Top 4. Those are all very powerful, and even in a format like Limited where Ilharg is putting into play durdly ? Red creatures or ? fliers for free, the value is palpable. Feather decks are KOing people with cards like Bandage and Crimson Wisps and Niv-Mizzet fundamentally changed the way people built sealed pools, making them build more greedily than ever before. The biggest surprise in the Top 4 is obviously Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves. 24 decks is not a lot but it's also the same number as Ilharg decks and it's obviously a surprise to see such a fair commander join the ranks of an advantage engine like Feather or Niv or Ilharg, all of which either keep your hand full or empty it at double speed. People are excited for a Wolf commander that isn't disappointing, certainly, but I don't expect Tolsimir to remain in the Top 4 for long. Tribal commanders are certainly fun, but I expect regression soon. I imagine God-Eternal Kefnet or Massacre Girl will take its spot.
Neheb, Dreadhorde Champion was a card I expected to be in the Top 4 although anyone who already has a Red Neheb deck isn't likely to build around this Neheb instead. Even with great stats, you still have to hit them and the mana you get from other Neheb probably helps more. This Neheb is a great deck inclusion, though, and if the number of decks with it as a commander don't increase, I expect the number of decks that include it will. Kefnet is tricky to evaluate because copying Mono-Blue spells is powerful but a lot of them are extra turns and card draw spells. This kind of nonsense goes from underpowered to "you're the Archenemy now" pretty quickly. You have to manage the top of your deck which means durdling with Sensei's Divining Top and Scroll Rack, something people hate to watch. The kind of spikey player who likes this sort of deck is probably already happy with Chain Veil Teferi or whatever deck they get when they want to be the Archenemy at the table, but Kefnet is strong and showed it at the prerelease. I think this is a Top 5 commander, if not Top 4. God-Eternal Oketra is a very strong creature for a White deck, but triggering on creatures is a little awkward. Usually decks that make tokens use cards like Sigil of the Empty Throne, Anointed Procession, Luminarch Ascension, etc. The infrastructure of the deck is very creature-light, preferring to be made up of support cards that make the tokens strategy stronger. I don't know how many creatures I want to run, but with Oketra's Monument also available, maybe running some hatebears as ways to trigger our commander to ensure our creatures are protected could be a thing. I expect Oketra to stay in the Top 10. Massacre Girl is popular but also very tricky to build around. It did a ton of work at the prerelease, but it's a pretty unreliable Damnation most of the time and having a Mono-Black commander that wipes the board isn't all it's cracked up to be. I imagine this stays out of the Top 8.
Fblthp, the Lost is a card I expect to rise. Granted, people are doing sort of boring, linear stuff with Fblthp and Proteus Staff but I also expect more people to at least try to build it. It's currently tied with Massacre Girl but I bet Fblthp rises and Massacre Girl falls. Roalesk, Apex Hybrid should rise despite having to fight with a ton of other similar cards because lots of decks are good at putting +1/+1 counters on creatures, but Roalesk does the same with Planeswalkers and proliferating a ton with Planeswalkers in a deck with Doubling Season means you can so things no Simic deck before has done nearly as well. With a ton of good Kioras, a new Tamiyo, Jaces, Garruks, and Teferi, you have a ton of good 'Walkers to choose from and I expect Roalesk decks to explore that space in ways that Pir and Toothy or Ezuri, Claw of Progress did not. Roalesk, if you can harness his potential, does everything they could do and then some. I expect him to climb the rankings. Mowu, Loyal Companion performed very well this weekend but his strength is as a deck inclusion, not as a commander, and building around him means you're building Pir with no access to Blue which seems loose. Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin way overperformed this weekend and every game he came down on turn three felt unloseable. Is he better than the other Krenko, though? I can't see building Krenko and not building other Krenko, especially since attacking is fraught while merely tapping is much safer. I expect it to be built more, but maybe not to climb the rankings. As an inclusion, though, don't sleep on it, though it's most useful in other Krenko's deck.
The Bottom 4 are the bottom 4 for a reason. While God-Eternal Bontu is pretty strong, I don't want it as a commander, though it's going in my Teysa deck. Ditto with God-Eternal Rhonas in Mayael. Tomik, Distinguished Advokist isn't powerful enough to justify being in Mono-White and I don't expect to see him get built unless it's as a challenge. Storrev, Devkarin Lich is powerful but way too fair and I hate the trend of having to attack with commanders in War of the Spark - having to risk their lives to get any benefit really dampens my enthusiasm.
The Cards
I won't talk about every card, just the ones I think will move up or down in the rankings.
Karn's Bastion is #1 and I think that's probably wrong. It's mostly getting jammed in a ton of Atraxa decks (on the War of the Spark ranking page, click on a card to be taken to the card's page and see which commanders include it the most.) #1 is Atraxa, #2 is Hapatra with 25% as many inclusions, 3rd is Pir and Toothy. This is Atraxa players tinkering with their decks and since Atraxa has the most decks, it has the most influence. Bastion is pretty loose in a four-color deck if you ask me and I think it may find a home but it won't be the #1 card for long. Adios!
I like all of the people trying Bolas's Citadel. I called it Bad Nauseam at first and while it looks worse, it might just be too different to evaluate in those terms. Being able to pick and choose whether you draw a card normally or greedily play it off the top in a long game means you basically have a modular Dark Confidant, and you can keep lands in your hand to pitch to something else and play lands off the top for free once a turn. This is likely a powerful card that stays in the Top 5. Does it claim the #1 spot? Hard to say.
Evolution Sage and Flux Channeler are drafting off of Atraxa but they're both so good it doesn't necessarily mean they won't stay in the Top 10. I think Evolution Sage is the better card but I think Flux Channeler is in the better color. It's a toss-up. I will say it's way easier to trigger Evolution Sage 15 times in one turn and kill them with a giant army. Have you played with Mycoloth?
Spark Double is the first generic clone to be able to copy Planeswalkers, but I don't know how relevant that is. Did you read the part of the card where it says "you control?" Expect this card to plummet.
Dovin's Veto is way overrepresented and I don't expect it to get played. I can count the number of times I've had a counterspell countered in Commander on one hand. If that happens to you a lot, OK, but I think most players will eschew this in favor of a better counterspell, something the format is veritably lousy with.
Finale of Devastation is the real deal and I expect it to crack the Top 10, maybe Top 5 after a few months. I don't mind toolbox tutors in a 75% deck and this one I like a lot, serving as a finisher when drawn late.
Emergence Zone is a bit overhyped, now. I expect it to fall off.
I think The Elderspell is very strong but very narrow. I can't imagine it sees as much EDH play as its current rankings would suggest. I imagine this falls off hard.
Casualties of War is currently ranked 49th but I expect it to climb the rankings. It's the real deal. You will always get value here and unlike spells like Decimate, which are clunky, you can cast this without the full complement of targets and don't have to target your own permanent to be allowed to play it if they don't have an artifact. Casualties is currently in fewer decks than Deathsprout, a card that will never replace more flexible cards like Assassin's Trophy and Putrefy.
Jiang Yanggu, Wildcrafter may be my favorite card in the set and being ranked 56th is a bit of a surprise. I think people will see how good it is in Simic decks soon. It's going in all of mine. Turning creatures like Coiling Oracle and Evolution Sage into mana dorks and also making them eligible for growth with Proliferate is too strong and Jiang should end up in the Top 25.
Grateful Apparition is currently 60th and while it's not quite Thrummingbird, it is in colors that never had a Thrummingbird necessarily and I think it's higher impact that cards like Liliana's Triumph and Pollenbright Druid currently ranked above it.
Kiora, Behemoth Beckoner is currently ranked 69th (nice) which seems like it's probably too low. Temur Ascendancy is ranked 36th in Khans, for reference, and Kiora doesn't require Red. The cards are very different, but I think Simic decks make better use of the untap ability, anyway. Khans also had fewer good cards for Commander. Who knows where Kiora ends up? Top 50, I would hope, though.
At 70th, Massacre Girl is obviously in the wrong spot. She's better in the 99 than in the command zone and I expect her to see a lot of play. She's no Massacre Wurm but she's a solid sweeper and she can be returned to your hand after use in a Black deck more easily than Damnation could in a Black deck.
Storm the Citadel is currently at the bottom of the barrel, showing up in exactly 2 decks. Not giving the creatures trample is awkward, but if you can go wide with tokens, this should not only give you enough punch to do a ton of extra damage and make blocking very difficult, you should be able to wreck a lot of trinkets. Would people rather play Overrun and Triumph of the Hordes? Seems that way. I still think Storm has potential.
Mowu is currently in more decks as a commander than as an inclusion and I expect that to flip.
Keep building those decks and keep listing them on Mtg Goldfish, Deckstats, or Archidekt to help the data end up normalizing. Atraxa cards are really overrepresented right now but that is likely to change as people brew with the new, exciting cards in the set. There are a lot of very powerful commanders to build around like Niv Mizzet and Feather and Roalesk and there are a ton of cards that help you proliferate your way to glory. The Planeswalkers in the set are pretty tough to rank against each other but the more testing people do, the more the best ones will emerge. Thanks for reading, and if you want me to rank a specific card I skipped, take exception with one of my calls, or just want to interact, leave it in the comments. Share this in your Facebook groups to get some debates started and check in next week for a new 75% deck idea. Until next time!