The paper Pro Tour returns!

As you are reading this, myself and 218 other players are gathered in the Philadelphia Convention Center at MagicCon and already playing in Pro Tour Phyrexia, the first paper Pro Tour since 2019. Once again, actual cards will fly, the draft will be called, and we can look our opponents directly in the eyes as we attack our 2/2 into their 3/3 and smile threateningly.

There's a lot of excitement already brewing, and personally I've been at an apartment with an all-star team preparing for the event for the last week.

I'm not exactly sure how I ended up testing with such a crew of literal legends of the game, but it's been an awesome and humbling experience.

Today I'm going to get back to something that was a usual tradition for me before every Pro Tour... my Pro Tour Predictions article! I'll be making my usual five predictions for the event and we'll see how I do!

Prediction One: Over Half Of The 6-0 Drafters Will Make Top 8

Each day of the Pro Tour is three rounds of a draft, followed by five rounds of Pioneer Constructed.

While draft is only a third of the tournament, it is the format where players will have the biggest edge if they are well prepared. Pioneer is a very stable, one could argue almost stale, format at this point, with a lot of decks overall but a very established metagame that is unlikely to be shaken up too much. As such, it's very unlikely that anyone "broke" it for this event, meaning there aren't huge edges to be gained.

Phyrexia: All Will Be One draft however is still a very new format and rife for exploration. Furthermore, with the popularity of MTG Arena for drafting many players are much more used to best of one drafts that are not played in pod. Playing best of three and only in your pod is a much different experience at a high level, which many newcomers to the pro scene may not be ready for.

As such, I expect the players who crush the draft portion to put themselves in an amazing spot to make Top 8 of the event.

Prediction Two: Mono Green Devotion Will Have A Sub-50% Win Rate

For players not as acquainted with Pioneer as a format, a lot of the perception is that Mono-Green Devotion is an inherently broken deck and that it's ridiculous that Nyxthos, Shrine to Nyx is still a legal card in the format. However, the reality just doesn't match that assumption.

There's no doubt that Mono-Green Devotion is perhaps the format's most individually powerful deck in a vacuum, but it's also been the format's boogeyman for a long time now and most other decks have adapted to be able to handle it. The deck did poorly on average at the Regional Championships a few months ago, and frankly the format hasn't changed much since then so I expect more of the same.

The deck isn't bad, but it just doesn't have an edge in a well-prepared field.

Prediction Three: There Will Be Zero Izzet Phoenix In Top 8

While Mono-Green Devotion is still a solid deck and will do decently at the event regardless, Pioneer Izzet Phoenix is a fundamentally flawed deck.

Frankly, the deck just isn't good.

The deck is overly reliant on an engine that is super high variance, in a deck that is normally super consistent and smooth. Temporal Trespass requires so many things to be going right to be good, and when you draw it or Galvanic Iteration at the wrong times it just makes things hopelessly awkward. Add on this that the card Arclight Phoenix just is neither consistent nor powerful enough to pressure the unfair things happening in the format and the deck just falls flat.

Izzet Phoenix's place in the format has been steadily declining for months now and that trend will only continue.

Prediction Four: There Will Be An Abnormally High Amount Of Draws

While it is awesome to be back to paper Magic after a few years of MTG Arena as the avenue for high level play, there is definitely going to be a readjustment period.

Playing Magic is difficult, playing Magic at the highest level is very difficult, and when you haven't been playing a lot of paper Magic there are many small things that add up when it comes to actually managing the game. Where do you want your deck? What do you do with cards that are on an adventure or foretold? How do you want to physically want to handle sideboarding? You've also got an opponent in front of you that you actually have to talk to and interact with, aside from the pomp and circumstance of playing paper Magic at the Pro Tour again.

Historically, Pro Tour rounds have been either 60 or 55 minutes, but for this event they are going to be only 50. Even with Pioneer being a format full of reasonably proactive decks, this is not a lot of time for a room that is going to have a lot of players getting their footing again playing high level paper Magic.

The US Regional Championship a few months ago was a very similar Pioneer format, and there were a ton of draws in the event. I expect the Pro Tour to be no different.

Prediction Five: A Member Of My Team Will Make Top 8

I usually reserve my last prediction for something a bit more personal, be it the results of myself, my team, or friends playing in the event, but this one almost just feels like cheating.

I had the honor of working with the Team CFB folks for this event, which is a lineup that includes Hall of Famers, A World Champion, multiple Pro Tour Winners, Players of the Year, and more, as well as my team from last year's World Championship. I'm not sure how exactly I managed to find myself in such well decorated company, but I am humbled and grateful that I got to work with them for this event.

• Jim Davis
• Eli Kassis
• Jakub Toth
• Mike Sigrist
• Reid Duke
• Gab Nassif
• Sam Pardee
• Brent Vos
• Ben Lundquist
• Ma Noah
• Seth Manfield
• Logan Nettles
• Luis Scott-Vargas
• Martin Juza

As such, I'm going to predict that one of us will make the Top 8 of Pro Tour Phyrexia. I really want to predict two, but frankly Pro Tours are not easy and that feels like a little too much.

Tune In!

Lots of folks have been asking for the return of the Pro Tour and paper Magic to the main stage, and the time is now! So, tune in and see how I, my team, and everyone else in the event fares!

Did someone break Pioneer? Will the young guns continue the momentum from Worlds to unseat the old guard? Or do the hall of farmers and game's great still have the drive to compete at the highest level? Tune in to coverage and find out!