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Last week, I left off with a few cards in the current Standard environment that I felt had a lot of potential future value. This week, I want to dive directly into the individual card analysis following the same format I used last week. In addition to my own investments, I am going to touch on some reader-submitted suggestions. I will describe where I think these cards are going and why they may be smart investments. I will also be returning to the actual trades next week now that the Magic season is back in full swing, so look forward to a slew of new pickups as I cover what went down in Orlando.
Card: Runechanter's Pike
Current price: $0.75 to $1.50
Investment period: One to three months
Price point: $5 to $6
Expected return: $3 to $4
Gain on investment: 200%
Verdict: I wanted to cover this card last week—I had been hearing whispers of its possible play in Delver-based decks, but unfortunately, I left it off the list. Since then, the card has already doubled in price, and by time this article goes live, it may have even doubled again. When evaluating Equipment, the first thing I look for is the cost: both to play and equip. In Runechanter's Pike, we have a card that is both cheap to play and to equip that provides our creature with both a damage bonus and a level of protection. I had looked at this card when Innistrad first released and found the number of decks able to use such an effect lacking. Since then, the metagame has shifted to the point that creature interaction in combat is far more relevant—in turn, making the First Strike this Equipment provides far more relevant. With the level of evasion we are currently seeing in Standard, Pike also provides a way to both hold down the fort—creating unprofitable combat steps for your opponent—and allow you to place a three- to four-turn clock in most cases. I can see this card being a major player as we dive deeper into a graveyard-based set, and I would not be surprised at all to see this card hit $5 or more. Although last week would have been the ideal time to buy in, now is still a great opportunity to double your money in a short amount of time with a relatively low chance of risk.
Card: Splinterfright
Current price: under $0.50
Investment period: One to three months
Price point: $4 to $5
Expected return: $2 to $3
Gain on investment: 400%
Verdict: This card carries slightly more risk than most I have mentioned thus far, simply because, although it is technically a 3-drop, it is rarely coming down on turn three. I have been picking up Splinterfrights happily as throw-ins since the set first released, and given a few new cards we have seen spoiled recently, I feel that it could finally pay off big. Before Dark Ascension, we had very few ways to reliably dump creatures into our graveyard without costing ourselves card advantage. Now that the set has begun to be spoiled, we can already see how much scarier this card could become. Not only can we now reliably play Splinterfright in the earlier turns as a 3/3 or larger, he also fuels a card from the new set that I expect may be among the major sleepers. Given that we have a possible 10/10 to back this guy up in a midrange deck, we are likely to see a spike in his price. Whether the deck is legitimate dictates how long and high the card can rise, but as long as you don’t get too greedy, it should be no issue dumping these for a solid profit in the near future.
Card: Ludevic's Test Subject
Current price: under $0.50
Investment period: Two to four months
Price point: $3 to $4
Expected return: $2
Gain on investment: 100%
Verdict: Though at first glance this card looks to be for the casual crowd only, a few recent Top 8s have said otherwise. With his ability to come down as an early blocker against aggro and a game-ender against control, this card has the exact versatility I look for in a 2-drop. With the ability to be leveled at instant speed, you are able to leave mana back to counter threats if needed and at the same time still have something to do if your opponent holds back. A friend of mine, Thomas Mckee, called this card a while back when the set first dropped as a potential main-deck threat for counter-based control decks. At the time, I had a hard time seeing where this card would find a home, but with the rise of draw-go-based decks over the past few weeks, it has begun to see some serious play. I would suggest at least picking up a personal play set of this card before the right deck wins, in turn spiking the price.
Card: Bloodgift Demon
Current price: $1 to $2
Investment period: ???
Price point: ???
Expected return: ???
Gain on investment: ???
Verdict: The first of a few reader-suggested cards, Bloodgift Demon has seen little to no play since his release. This card, for all intents and purposes, is meant to be a Phyrexian Arena with wings for 2 more mana. We have seen effects like this before, and in the past, they have cropped up in various control builds as an endgame mechanic to both overwhelm your opponent with card advantage and bash his face in. I love the idea of this card in a U/B control build that can take advantage of Pristine Talisman to power him out as early as turn four. Talisman also serves to negate the life lost each turn, essentially allowing you to Arena for free. I do, however, have some reservations about this guy based solely on his competition. When you are looking to compete with cards like Grave Titan and Consecrated Sphinx, you have to bring something to the table that immediately forces your opponent to deal with your threat swiftly or pay dearly. Unfortunately I don’t feel that Bloodgift Demon does quite enough to warrant a severe price change in the near future. This does not mean that I would not pick them up when you can find them for cheap, but I also would not actively seek them in trades at this juncture.
Card: Daybreak Ranger
Current price: $1 to $2
Investment period: ???
Price point: ???
Expected return: ???
Gain on investment: ???
Verdict: With the second reader-requested card, I admit I may have a bit of a bias; plain and simple: I love this card. I cannot see why this guy is not seeing a ton of play currently in a midrange shell with cards like Mayor and the various burn spells we have at our disposal. In the current metagame, this guy, untransformed, singlehandedly keeps the W/U skies decks in check while threatening to transform if the opponent chooses to play his typical draw-go method. When she is transformed, she becomes one of the most threatening 3-drops in the game with a built-in, repeatable removal engine; everything short of Geist of Saint Traft and Thrun are in trouble. Though both of those cards could give this deck fits, I am sure there would be a way to shore up that matchup given enough time and testing. With a new metagame shift quickly approaching, I do not know what the future holds for this Werewolf, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see her as a three-of in a Tier 1 deck over the next few months. I would suggest at least picking up a play set and any copies you can snag beyond that at $1 or less.
Card: Past in Flames
Current price: $6 to $8
Investment period: ???
Price point: ???
Expected returns: ???
Gain on investment: ???
Verdict: I believe the ship may have sailed on your chance to grab these while they are still within a reasonable window to make much money. If you are currently sitting on them, I would wait until the first few weeks’ worth of Modern results are in and base my decision to hold or dump on those standings. With such a powerful effect in a multitude of decks across almost every format, I would not be surprised to see this card briefly break $10 at some point—but even that feels like a bubble price, given the cost to play and lack of support in the current Standard environment. I have been picking up almost every copy I can under $4 these past two weeks leading up to Orlando, in hopes of doubling my money in trade value this weekend. With the popularity of Modern’s new ugly combo, I would not be surprised if I left with no copies, outing them as high as $10 at times.
That closes out this week’s investment series. Join me next week as I look into Eternal formats, beginning with Modern, and working my way into Legacy. With the PTQ season in full stride, now is the time to make some early investments as we look into the evolution of the format as a whole. If you have any cards in particular you would like me to cover, feel free to leave a comment or send me a tweet. In addition to Modern, I want to know what you guys feel will be on the rise in Standard as we slowly have the new set revealed. What are you looking to pick up—or possibly dump—as the metagame shifts?
Ryan Bushard
