Times are looking precarious for beloved Basic Mountain.

The incredible three-mana weapon that laced together Pro Tour and Grand Prix wins from the very first event where it was legal is about to rotate, not only blunting the Red Deck's efficacy... But strengthening all its most opportunistic enemies.

1. Timeliness

Magic isn't just a game of synergies and interactions; it's a game of luck and anticipation. Just as Wyatt Darby was able to take down Pro Tour Dominaria at Goblin Chainwhirler's debut (with six other Chainwhirler decks in his Top 8), Andrew Ellenbogen won Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica in the off weekend where Experimental Frenzies were almost everywhere... But in White decks!

Healer's Hawk at first blush looked like the perfect foil to Standard Red Decks... Until you realized how completely dominated it was by Goblin Chainwhirler. Healer's Hawk is a card that would have, in another universe, taken a lot out of the Red Deck's burn suite... Maybe would have if Red were the Beatdown. But during their long period of coexistence Goblin Chainwhirler put Red in this strange and dominating position where it could be Beatdown and Control simultaneously.

But now? With specifically the Chainwhirler's combination of card advantage, pressure, and tempo removed from the Standard card pool, it might be time for not only Healer's Hawk but...

When it rains lifegain... It pours, right?

This new card from Throne of Eldraine probably isn't quite as good as Healer's Hawk, but it just represents more Healer's Hawks. Combine them with...

... And you might just have a remarkably hostile environment for the Red Deck.

Is it actually Healer's Hawk's time (again)? A Pro Tour win in its debut didn't quite hold up the same way that Goblin Chainwhirler's did.

Really, I'm not even sure that Beloved Princess or Linden are even good. BUT! I just know that in the absence of Goblin Chainwhirler, they can team up to produce substantial effective card advantage against any decks that plan to trade cards for damage.

While they may or may not seem powerful in the abstract, I wouldn't sleep on the incentives you can string together with, say, an...

Even control decks might have to respect a curve of Healer's Hawk into Ajani's Pridemate into Linden, the Steadfast Queen. Maybe they don't care about your life total; but they might care a lot about the fact that your Pridemate is Titan-sized by turn three.

2. Blockers

From the first Sligh deck's very inception over twenty years ago, Standard Red Decks have danced precariously around large Green creatures.

In the original Sligh guide, Frank Kusumoto and Jay Schneider talked about going wide to potentially outmaneuver the height (and superior toughness) of an Erhnam Djinn. There were a number of reasons that the Red Deck of that era could race a opponent, or at least dissuade them from popping the signature Armageddon.

But what happens when this becomes the Green 4-drop in Standard?

What a... How do you even say this? BEAST!

My podcast tag team partner Patrick Chapin recently compared this card to Lava Hounds. Lava Hounds was a pillar of Deadguy Red victory in its day! What if, instead of dealing four damage to you, it just had five additional (positive) abilities?

Since the days of Jay Schneider and David E. Price, one of the underrated aspects of Red Decks has always been the cleverness of the players shuffling them up.

Cards like the still-legal Ember Hauler have historically allowed Red Decks to slow down the attack of opposing giants while still sneaking in damage; blunting the opponents' race attempts while nudging their life totals a little bit lower. You know; to get them into range for a burn flurry or whatever the era's equivalent was of the Chandra's Spitfire-driven combo-kill.

Against Questing Beast you just can't do that. The card can't really be chumped by weenies!

That's not even the extent of the Red Deck's problems.

This card is not just a problem for Basic Mountain, it's awesome in the abstract.

Obviously the card is most advantageous in a Food-rich environment. If you have plentiful Food, you have plentiful Feasting Troll Kings! You might never tap mana to make your Feasting Troll King (now that is a scary thought). Like Questing Beast, this large creature has vigilance; meaning that it can attack and defend simultaneously. It's also got trample, so it's difficult to chump.

Feasting Troll King is a problem for Red Decks. But worse, it implies a problematic environmental context. Namely: One where opponents are capable of gaining three life on a whim. Is this powerful? Is life gain powerful? Maybe and maybe not. If three-color Planeswalker Control decks remain popular? Maybe not ever in the abstract... But when you're playing cards like Shock, you kind of have to respect a mobile, and potentially card advantageous, Healing Salve. And you've really got to respect, like, three of them.

Remember guys like this exist, and are going to see play:

And.

They.

Make.

Food.

3. Three... It's the New Four

With Lightning Strike rotating alongside Core Set 2019, Red Decks are going to have to accept a lower high water mark for toughness in Standard. Creatures that they used to be able to snap off at three toughness are suddenly going to live longer; and this will be reinforced by the impending playability of hyped up cards like Stomp // Bonecrusher Giant that deal two, instead of three, damage.

What has three toughness? How about a simple 2/2 Wolf token... If Nightpack Ambusher is on the battlefield? How about one of Oko's Elk? The aforementioned Linden, the Steadfast Queen is going to be a headache for any deck packing direct damage, and Ayara, First of Locthwain might accidentally take over the battlefield.

How is a Red Deck really supposed to be afraid of this? Yes, its Ghost Council of Orzhova-esque abilities might be scary over time... But three toughness for three mana? Red Decks of not-that-old would have all snuffed it before it got a second swing at your mutual life totals. But a world where you Stomp instead of 'Strike? Will Red Decks resort to main-deck Lava Coil? Gross.

Point being, anything with three toughness is going to gain value relative to their current value against the present day Red Decks. This includes a Red Deck's own Chandra's Spitfire (today) to more exotic options, like dedicated 1/3 defensive drops on two, to anything in the reimagined universe of Harmonious Archon.

"And now for something completely different..."

4. The King is Dead

Annoying 1/1 guys are going to get through with lifelink; and might grow even more annoying 2-drops to the size of Primeval Titans.

Green creatures may command the greatest offense / defense of the color's twenty-six year history. Tall toughness and vigilance are paired in Throne of Eldraine like peanut butter and chocolate.

Three toughness is the new four toughness! You think Augur of Bolas was a problem for Red Decks before? They aren't even going to have Lightning Strike for it in a couple of weeks.

So the king is dead, right? Right. But what's the second half of that quote again? Long live the king!

I don't know how recoverable the incumbent Red Deck is. Turn one Spectacle catalysts like Fanatical Firebrand are rotating, and I'm not sure I buy Gingerbrute as a replacement. Goblin Chainwhirler is a more important loss than anything else. But I do think it's possible to reimagine the Red Deck with new tools... Though perhaps we will have to recycle an older model.

Mono-Red Beatdown | 2008 Standard | Michael Jacob

• Creatures (24)
• 4 Ashenmoor Gouger
• 4 Blood Knight
• 4 Demigod of Revenge
• 4 Figure of Destiny
• 4 Magus of the Moon
• 4 Magus of the Scroll

• Instants (12)
• 4 Flame Javelin
• 4 Incinerate
• 4 Skred

• Lands (24)
• 22 Snow-Covered Mountain
• 2 Keldon Megaliths

• Sideboard (15)
• 2 Pithing Needle
• 4 Sulfurous Blast
• 3 Spitebellows
• 2 Unwilling Recruit
• 4 Murderous Redcap

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I'm not even talking about morphing into a slow Red Control deck, all Planeswalkers and Lava Coils. Check out Michael Jacob's 2008 US National Championship deck a second. This is a beatdown deck... But it plays more than 120% of the land of our current Standard Red Deck! It also plays plentiful 5-drops and a sideboard that is nothing but fours.

That said, I would direct your gaze to the Flame Javelin and Demigod of Revenge... Two of the signature cards of Michael's Championship deck list.

Flame Javelin has a 2019 analogue if ever there was one:

But what about Demigod of Revenge?

Demigod of Revenge was so good not only because of its power, speed, and haste at five mana... But also for its card advantage and ability to trump Blue cards. There are lots of big spells a Red mage can muster in Standard - from Skarrgan Hellkite to Demanding Dragon - but none of them are quite the 5-drop of a Demigod of Revenge.

Yet, I would humbly suggest:

Embereth Paladin?!? You might say. Isn't that more of a Limited card?

Not so fast!

This card is fast!

At only four mana, Embereth Paladin hits like a Reality Smasher (provided you have enough Red mana), but at a discount. Something few Dragons or Smashers or Demigods can give you is a one mana discount. This card can do much of the work that Gruul mages a cycle ago were relying on Charging Monstrosaur to accomplish, but more cheaply. While none of this cures its low toughness, if the Paladin's main job is to assassinate Planeswalkers, that 1-2 toughness might not matter at all!

See? It's not all bad!

It's probably not possible to accurately imagine the full upcoming Red Deck without access to all the cards, but I'd be surprised if this new take on Robin Hood weren't among them. The deck will want staying power. I think it's going to need a lot of haste to make up for its necessarily higher land count. Robber of the Rich fits into that overlap well. This card is remarkably tactical. It will reward timing on the Red Deck's part, and will punish the default play patterns of most slower decks. Magic's core combat engine typically rewards defense (the defender can set blockers), but Robber of the Rich will give its controller a lot of agency in how to line up resources in order to maximize its own ceiling, if not survivability. Best yet, it's very likely to trigger early, and produces a kind of advantage that doesn't count against it on future turns.

I've also got a soft spot for Torbran, Thane of Red Fell. I think it will have a place, albeit probably not as a four-of. The important thing to note here is that Torbran itself will play 4/4 despite claiming to be a 2/4; and generally allow everyone else to punch up. Part of the reason I posted that old Michael Jacob deck was to normalize the idea that both the number of Basic Mountains in front of us will go up... And our formerly low and dangerous curves.

Not gonna lie, aspiring Red brothers: Life in Standard is about to get hard... Harder, for sure; or at least different. But if you can stomach twenty-four (or even twenty-five!) lands and a default as the Control rather than the Beatdown, you may just start whacking Planeswalkers at will and drawing extra cards like Ophidian in 1997.

Long live the king.

LOVE

MIKE