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Analyzing the Magic Online Modern Metagame

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In an effort to become prepared for the Modern PTQ season that’s already underway, I’ll be taking a look at how the format has been shaping up online. Magic Online is usually my go-to place to find the latest technology, and with the advent of online PTQs, the information is better than ever. I’m only going to look at PTQs and Premier Events for the purposes of my analysis. Daily Events are less useful due to the smaller prize payout and the limited number of rounds.

Here’s some raw data for the Top 8 decklists:

From two PTQs:

3 W/U Caw-Blade

2 Jund Aggro

2 Living End combo

1 Mono-Blue Faeries *

1 R/W/U Delver aggro *

1 Affinity

1 U/R Storm combo

1 Boros aggro

1 Hive Mind combo

1 Esper Teachings control

1 G/B/r Death Cloud

1 R/U/G Delver aggro

From two Premier Events:

3 Jund aggro

2 Melira combo *

2 U/R Splinter Twin combo

2 Affinity

1 R/W/U Delver Aggro *

1 Esper Teachings control

1 U/R Storm Combo

1 W/U Caw-Blade

1 Boros aggro

1 Martyr-Proc

1 Soul Sisters

* denotes an event winner

Combining all of this information, we can get a general sense of what the format looks like. Here’s a handy pie chart:

The biggest slices of our pie (haumph!) are W/U Caw-Blade, Jund aggro, and Affinity. I’ll focus on the first two, but if you’re looking for more information on Affinity, I suggest you check out Melissa DeTora’s PTQ report from last week. I’ll also take a look at the two PTQ-winning decklists in more detail, especially the Delver deck, which amazingly took down a Premier event and then the PTQ the very next day.

First off, the beaked menace that not so long ago ruled the skies of Standard: W/U Caw-Blade:

This is the list that Darth_Revan (nice KOTOR reference) piloted to the finals of one of the PTQs. It’s very similar to what the deck looked like during Extended last year. Snapcaster Mage and Moorland Haunt are great additions to the deck, making the deck that much more resilient to disruption. I’d imagine an aggro deck would have a very hard time fighting through a full set each of Squadron Hawk and Kitchen Finks when they now come with a bonus 1/1 Spirit token.

Some of the numbers seem kind of random to me—particularly in the sideboard—but I’ll just assume they’re right until I have a chance to try it out for myself.

I don’t see Dark Ascension making a large impact to this deck. It’s possible to splash for Sorin, but honestly, I think the deck would benefit a lot more by keeping it straight W/U and playing more Elspeths. You don’t want to overload on 4-drops, though, and the deck is already playing Cryptic Command, so I would at most want to add one more.

Next up, let’s look at a different kind of menace to Standard of days past:

This is the list 2011 MTGO Champion Reid Duke played to a Top 8 finish. I picked this list mostly for the purposes of name dropping, but you could do worse than to just run this exact seventy-five. The great thing about Jund is that it’s very customizable. I don’t think you should mess around with the mana base too much, and you should always play four Bloodbraid Elf, but other than that, you have a decent amount of leeway in building this deck.

Expect a lot of aggro? Play four Kitchen Finks and more removal. Expect a lot of combo? Play Putrid Leech and more discard. Huntmaster of the Fells is a card I’d be interested in trying out. I don’t think it warrants main-deck inclusion, but it could prove to be effective in the mirror and against certain aggro decks. I’m not sure if it’s better than Obstinate Baloth for this purpose, but like I said, it’s worth trying.

And now for something completely different—a deck with eighteen Islands:

This is what Jacob Wilson used to take down a PTQ, no doubt grinding the bones of many Englishmen on the way. I watched the replay of the finals, and Vedalken Shackles was absolutely back-breaking for his opponent, who couldn’t get ahead no matter how many Squadron Hawks he played. Most aggro decks are going to have a very hard time beating a Vedalken Shackles once it gets going. Also, the age-old plan of Mistbind Clique and Cryptic Command until you die still works.

I can see mono-red giving this deck trouble, as that has traditionally been Fae’s most difficult matchup. Any sort of highly aggressive deck that can close out the game with burn spells would be a challenge. Wilson stated that, “the Relic of Progenitus was useless and . . . should be replaced by Spellskite, Steel Sabotage, Hurkyl's Recall and/or Engineered Explosives,” so keep that in mind if you want to try out this brew.

Or you could try this on for size:

Dracc0n won back-to-back events with this exact seventy-five, so there’s a very good chance he’s on to something awesome. Some of the card choices don’t make sense at first glance, but let’s look at them:

Four Isochron Scepter This one made my eyebrow raise the most. Scepter has rarely seen play outside of Scepter –Chant decks, so why now? Sure, there’s a cute combo with Research // Development, but I suspect that the most frequent use of this card is to light things on fire.

Delver of Secrets and scry cards – Okay, well it doesn’t take a detective to figure this one out, but this deck plays seven scry effects rather than the usual four Serum Visions. That means Jeff Goldblum will be transforming more regularly.

Sideboard fatties – It doesn’t seem plausible that this deck would be able to cast Elesh Norn or Sphinx of the Steel Wind, but hold on, there’s method to the madness. Conventionally, you always find four cards with Gifts Ungiven, but this deck defies that wisdom. Instead, it dumps Unburial Rites and whichever fatty it’s interested in reanimating in the graveyard. By only searching for two cards, your opponent doesn’t get to make any decisions. That might seem clunky, but since Dracc0n didn’t change his deck at all between events, I’d have to conclude that this is actually pretty effective. You can even pull this off Game 1 by using Research, but that seems extremely unlikely.

Delver–Scepter seems really awesome, and if I had to play a PTQ today, I’d most likely play something very similar to this. I’ll be battling in Toronto later this month and for the first time since PT: Philly, I’m looking forward to playing some Modern. Whatever deck I end up playing, at the very least, I know to prepare for W/U Caw-Blade and Jund. If you happen to be there, feel free to say, “Hi.” Until next time, may you always topdeck a lethal Lightning Helix on your last turn to live.

Nassim Ketita

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