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Gatecrash Breakdown

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Huntmaster of the Fells
In anticipation for Gatecrash this weekend I'm going to discuss my opinion on the financial stability of the set over the next few months.  Overall, I have not been overly impressed with Gatecrash but I see a number of cards that have hidden potential in the long term to skyrocket if the correct deck presents itself.

Like Dark Ascension, I expect a number of cards will come from nowhere, relatively unplayed, and overnight jump in price once they find a home.  If you have been following this series you know by now how I format these set breakdowns so I won’t go into too much detail or bore you with all the fluff. Instead let’s dig right in!

As usual I will just be looking at the rares and evaluating each based on constructed merit and where I expect the price to stabilize at over the next few months.  I am not going to give an explanation for "bulk" since we have a great deal of cards to cover, but if you have a question about a particular card you can always send me a tweet or leave a comment after the article.

As with Return to Ravnica, I expect Gatecrash to sell extremely well and in turn lower the prices on the fringe to moderately playable cards.  Unlike Return to Ravnica, I now have a comparable set to compare Gatecrash to so my prices will be less reliant on Commander, or even fringe playability, when looking to get an accurate representation.  If a card like Slaughter Games, which sees play in multiple formats, can barely hold its head above the bulk bin I don’t expect much from the casual or fringe playable cards in Gatecrash either.

White

Angelic Skirmisher–Bulk

Blind Obedience
Blind Obedience–I like this card as a way to combat all of the hasty finishers it seems control has such a problem with, such as Thundermaw Hellkite and Hellrider.  I expect this to see mostly sideboard play but if an aggressive Boros strategy become prevalent I could see this in main decks in the future.

Price–$2

Frontline Medic–The second ability on this card is what will make or break its price for certain.  If we continue to see a format dominated by Sphinx's Revelation I can see this guy getting a ton of play.  If we see an aggro dominant format where decks are attempting to kill you before his battalion is relevant, then I can just as easily see him falling all the way to bulk.

Price–$3

Gideon, Champion of Justice–I like this guy way more than I should given how fragile he is.  I can imagine he will see very limited play, if any, over the next few months as this does not seem to be his format. I hold out hope for the future where this guy can shine in a tapout control deck.

Price–$14

Luminate Primordial–Bulk

Blue

Diluvian Primordial–Bulk

Enter the Infinite–Bulk

Realmwright–Bulk

Simic Manipulator–Bulk

Stolen Identity–Bulk

Black

Crypt Ghast
Crypt Ghast–I know I said I was not looking for much casual appeal in the short term for this set, but this guy screams money.  I cannot guarantee he will spike immediately but I would be picking any of these you can get your hands on at bulk rates now!

Price–$2

Lord of the Void–Bulk

Ogre Slumlord–Bulk

Sepulchral Primordial–Bulk

Undercity Plague–I like the concept of this card but I feel it will be a little slow for the current environment.  At some point I expect this to be one of those sleeper rares from the set that suddenly propels a deck to the top, as you can clear your opponent's board of threats and their hand of answers.

Price–5$

Red

Legion Loyalist
Five-Alarm Fire–Bulk

Hellkite Tyrant–Bulk

Legion Loyalist–I am just not a huge fan of this card. I can’t see this being what any aggro deck is actually looking for in the late game to go over the top when you have answers like Hellrider, Thundermaw Hellkite or Falkenrath Aristocrat.

Price–Bulk

Molten Primordial–Bulk

Wrecking Ogre–Bulk

Green

Giant Adephage–Bulk

Gyre Sage–Bulk

Ooze Flux–Bulk

Skarrg Goliath–Bulk

Sylvan Primordial–Bulk

Multicolor

Alms Beast–Bulk

Assemble the Legion
Assemble the Legion–I really like this card as both a way to stabilize during the midgame and overwhelm in the late game for a midrange control deck.  I feel it may be a little costly, but at the same time dropping this then a Wrath effect (Supreme Verdict, Merciless Eviction) can be absolutely devastating.

Price–$3

Aurelia, the Warleader–I don’t know how much appeal this will have in the competitive community given the popularity of Thundermaw Hellkite at a mana cheaper, but if it does find a home I could see the price spiking quickly given how much appeal it will have in the casual and Commander crowd.

Price–$8

Aurelia's Fury–I am sure this card will see play but I am also certain that this card is likely the most overhyped in the set.  It’s a fine Fog and Silence, but beyond that I cannot see this card making a large enough impact to garnish its current price.  I expect it to become a silver bullet in some control decks, and something to board against control for aggro. I don’t see it impacting the format in a way that will keep it above the ten dollar mark.

Price–$8

Biovisionary–Bulk

Borborygmos Enraged–Bulk

Clan Defiance–Bulk

Consuming Aberration–Bulk

Deathpact Angel
Deathpact Angel–The fact that this is a mythic Angel with a relevant ability within the casual market allows it to break my earlier guideline.  I can see this having a great appeal and in turn staying above bulk.

Price–$4

Domri Rade–Finally we get to the only card in this set that I feel may be fairly priced at preorder.  I have bought a few myself for around $15, but even at $16 to $20 I can see this being a fine pickup if you are looking to play with them.  This card has a lot of potential, and one good weekend could net this guy a hefty price tag.  I expect a spike to upwards of $35, but as a consistent price point I believe the low twenties is fair.

Price–$20 to $25

Duskmantle Seer–I expect Duskmantle Seer to eventually find a home in a deck that can utilize underpriced creatures and a few counterspells to allow you enough time to bash your opponent to death through flips and attacks.  Similar to most cards in this set I do not see a deck immediately available for Seer to fit in, but before his life in Standard is over I expect him to find a home.

Price–$10

Fathom Mage–Bulk

Firemane Avenger–Bulk

Foundry Champion–Bulk

Gruul Ragebeast–Bulk

High Priest of Penance
High Priest of Penance–I just can’t see a home for this card, but given enough time I can see this being a solid speed bump with a targeted removal strapped on for control decks.

Price–$2

Lazav, Dimir Mastermind–I like this guy in another format and day of Magic where not everything relies on enters the battlefield triggers and haste.  Beyond just being an awesome Commander I can see Lazav in a midrange deck at some point over the next year.

Price–$5

Master Biomancer–This card has huge casual appeal. Although I can see it seeing fringe play in Standard, I feel this guy will eternally be worth something due solely to him being another lord effect.

Price–$4

Merciless Eviction–Bulk

Mind Grind–Bulk

Mystic Genesis–Bulk

Obzedat, Ghost Council–I like this guy as much as the next Spike but I really feel he is overpriced for preorder.  I can see him fitting into a number of decks, but I don’t see him as a four-of in most of them.

Price–$15

Prime Speaker Zegana
Prime Speaker Zegana–Similar to Obzedat, I feel Zegana will likely find a home in a number of decks and hold a reasonable price for a while.  Very few plays scare me as much as turn five Thragtusk into turn six Zegana.

Price–$15

Rubblehulk–Bulk

Signal the Clans–Bulk

Soul Ransom–When I first looked at this card, I sat and stared trying to figure out exactly what I wanted to get out of it.  After looking back a few times I am slowly seeing that this card is hard to evaluate because it rarely gives your opponent a desirable choice.  I am looking forward to slamming this on a Thragtusk, forcing my opponent to give me the card advantage one way or the other.

Price–$4

Spark Trooper–Bulk

Treasury Thrull–Bulk

Unexpected Results–Bulk

Whispering Madness–One of the first cards spoiled and its still one of my favorites.  If a decks pops up that can utilize more cards than your opponent can deal with I expect this to be a perfect fit.  I want to play this on a Duskmantle Seer and overwhelm my opponent with removal and counters to drive Dimir to victory!

Price–$3

Hybrid

Biomass Mutation–I am a huge fan of Mirror Entity, and this will likely steal even more games to a few unblocked tokens.  Unfortunately, the card is fairly narrow and will not fit in most aggressive decks. Between Elves and tokens I believe it will stay out of the bulk bin.

Price–$3

Nightveil Specter
Boros Reckoner–I am not sold on this guy since he does little to advance your board against control decks, but given how good he can in aggro mirrors he may be worth another look.

Price–$2

Immortal Servitude–Bulk

Nightveil Specter–I don’t see a deck for this to fit in currently, but if you can connect with the Specter a few times you will likely be able to net enough advantage to drive the game home. Duskmantle Seer, Vampire Nighthawk and this guy seem like a solid start to a potential deck design.  Unfortunately, this being a promo card keeps the price in check even if he does see play. None the less I think it will hold more than bulk.

Price–$3

Rubblebelt Raiders–Bulk

Artifact

Glaring Spotlight–Bulk

Illusionist's Bracers–Bulk

Land

Thespian's Stage
Sacred Foundry, Stomping Ground, Breeding Pool, Watery Grave, and Godless Shrine–The dual lands will have the same price points as those in Return to Ravnica.

Thespian's Stage–This card is by and far one of the best Commander cards in the set. Vesuva holds its value for a reason, and I expect the Stage to follow a similar pattern.

Price–$6

 

That’s all we have for spoiler season this time around.  I stayed away from the cards that I believe will hold a long term value but I will come back to the set and give a more in depth analysis of what long-term options there are.  Thank you for reading and let me know if you feel I am way off on any of the future values.  As always you can leave me a comment below or connect with me on Twitter.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand

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