Dissecting the Vaults

Posted on August 9, 2013

With the recent reveal of From the Vault: Twenty, I want to go through card-by-card this week and give my opinion of where we are likely to see both short-term and long-term pricing end up. The evaluations will be based on the previous price trends of other cards within FTV sets and the current prices of different versions of each printed card. I was planning on finishing up last week’s article about how to complete the collection process, but given the relatively new information, I feel that is worth pushing back a week.

Dark Ritual – Though this seems like such a simple reprint, many people are missing that this is currently very hard card to find in foil. A set of Mercadian Masques Dark Rituals can set you back over $150, and the judge promos top that at around $200. With so many people concentrating on the Jace right off the bat, I can see these easily moving hands around $10, and in the six- to twelve-month period of initial growth, I can see that doubling.

After checking eBay, it seems they can be found as low as $12 if bought in sets and as high as $25 when broken apart. This does not mean much now as the market begins to flood with preorders, but expect these to be off most people’s radars.

Swords to Plowshare – This card seems woefully underpriced at $15 apiece on auction sites. I don’t see how this won’t be $30 down the line, and I expect the short term to begin to reflect that fairly quickly. Trade for these while you can, and sit on them for a few months—you won’t be disappointed.

Hymn to Tourach – With little surprise, this card is ending all day above $20 already, and considering the new art—that many Magic Online players have been experiencing for months—I don’t see them dropping any time soon. I don’t think these are bad to trade for even at $20, but I would not go seeking them out.

Fyndhorn Elves – Considering Elves will finally be completely foil, I feel this guy is being severely overlooked. I have seen sets list as low as $10, and I am considering buying in now. I would be targeting these all day in trade, as for a long-term hold, you cannot ask for anything better. I can see these easily hitting $20 down the line given enough time and the occasional Top 8 of Elves in Legacy. The alternate art also holds appeal for the casual and Commander crowd in the short term, so expect a small spike shortly and a gradual increase over time.

Impulse – The new art will draw Cube and Commander appeal, but as stacked as this From the Vault is, I don’t expect much of an increase. You can already find the card in foil, meaning there is nothing unique about it—outside of the art—and it sees very little play in any real tournament environment, which leads me to believe it should stay around the current price of $4.

Wall of Blossoms – A hit for cube, similar to Impulse, there is nothing special here, and the art has remained, so I can see the current $5 price tag holding, but I would be looking to dump them if given the chance.

Thran Dynamo – The price of this card confuses me, as auctions have ended as high as $25 each, and play sets have sat stagnant around $30. If you can grab these cheap enough—under $5—I would snag them; otherwise, leave them alone, as I don’t see much gain in the short term if people believe they are $20 or more, and what value you make long-term would be better spent elsewhere.

Tangle Wire – This card does see fringe play, and I have seen them listing as low as $10, but I don’t know how much it has to gain in the short term. This is a case for which I believe the current foil price is so high due to there not being any other options up until now. I expect the regular foil to take a fairly significant hit, while the new one—with alternate art—grows in value over the next few years to close the gap.

Fact or Fiction – Long abandoned as a legitimate player in any format other than Commander, this reprint is rather unexciting. I want this to be worth more, as I have a soft spot in my heart for the old days of card-draw, but I just can’t see this surpassing the $3 to $5 it currently fetches.

Chainer's Edict – The alternate art does help this from ever becoming bulk, but I also don’t expect much in the short or long term as far as value goes. You may be able to move them early to the Commander players who are looking to upgrade, but I would dump them when you can while they still have any value left.

Akroma's Vengeance – With new art, this will be similar to Chainer's Edict in terms of initial value, but I don’t expect to see a short-term price that can top the $6 to $10 they are currently selling for. I can easily see this being long forgotten due to the sheer power of the rest of the set, but unlike Edict, I expect a better long-term life cycle.

Gilded Lotus – Even with the sweet new art, this card should not be able to hold $10 for long given the recent reprint. All this does is keep the growth period for the previous printings down even more, as they just began to trend back upward. Short-term value is great given the price fluctuation, but don’t be caught with them long, as the market is select and will probably dry up quickly.

Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni – These are right around where I expected in the $5 range. With the same art, I don’t see a Commander appeal driving the price up soon, and as I mentioned before, the value in this set will probably overshadow cards like this. It’s not a bad hold if you want to sit on them for a while, but I would not expect anything within the next few months to a year.

Char – Sweet, here’s finally a card we can call bulk . . . even this set had to have at least one.

Venser, Shaper Savant – Unlike Ink-Eyes I don’t expect the new Venser to be a flop. The alternate art really helps the value of both this version and the older foils. I expect the regular versions to take a small hit, but we probably won’t see a heavy price drop. I can see picking up any of these you can off locals for $20 or below and just sitting on them for a few months until Modern season rolls around. The playability of this guy creates a price I can see going nowhere but up in the long term.

Chameleon Colossus – Bulk

Cruel Ultimatum – Bulk

Jace, the Mind Sculptor – Finally, we are here: to the big man on campus. Presales have been all over the place, but let’s just assume for a moment that you can, at this moment, buy sealed sets for between $200 and $300, meaning this can, at most, be valued at $200. If you can find them cheaper, I would certainly snag them, but that seems like a pipe dream, as everyone and their sisters will be on the same plan. I would not go out of the way to grab these unless you can find a deal, but I’d instead concentrate on snagging the other hidden gems within the set. I like this for a long-term spec assuming we don’t see an immediate spike, but given that the current foil is holding steady at $600, a short-term jump to $300 or more also wouldn’t surprise me. Even if the card does spike, you are much more likely to make money from a number of small investments within the set.

Green Sun's Zenith – As much as I love this card, the reprint is only going to kill the value due to the Modern bannings. I expected a long-term gain for this card even with the precon reprint, but the second reprint will probably shoot that hope down for now.

Kessig Wolf Run – What a sad way to finish off the past twenty years. Couldn’t we have had something more iconic to the past year of Magic? Guess not, oh well; no complaints. Overall, I love the set and am stoked to snap up all of these I can.

As always, thanks for checking in, and look for the second part of last week’s article in the next edition of my article. Let me know how crazy you think I am in the comments below, and let me see how you feel about the set overall. Until next week, put those preorders in while you can, and start watching for those spoilers to roll in over the next few weeks.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand