Welcome readers to another exciting theme week here at Gatheringmagic.com.  I had a topic in mind after this past week’s  rampant discussion over Twitter about the future of the Legacy market and realizing it was Rakdos week makes it an easy tie-in.  If you don’t have a twitter or have just missed the discussion between the financial minds go back and take a look.

In short there was a mass buyout of Aluren which spiked the market given its reserved list status.  The buyout seemed to be triggered by a possible leak that Imperial Recruiter would be getting the nod for a Judge reprint in the near future.  As of now, Aluren combo is very expensive to build considering the recruiters themselves can run you over a grand.  This leads me to ask is if the deck will actually see enough play even if recruiter is reprinted to warrant the spike.  As of now Aluren has proven to be a fringe playable combo deck that has to compete with decks like Dredge and High Tide for sideboard hate.  In my opinion there will certainly be a spike when/if recruiter is reprinted but it will not be heavy enough to warrant the current price.  This week I will be talking about past and future investments that people have rushed into without thinking and why we should take a second look before we act of the cult.

With so many people getting into the financial game, it is hard to stay on top of the market anymore.  It seems that every time even the smallest of announcements are made the internet is instantly bought out of something.  The real thing to look at is not always whether it helps another card or deck but instead the true question is whether that combo is good enough even with the assistance.  In the case of Aluren we have an outdated combo deck that in my opinion is almost always worse than many of the more modern combos and relies on a single card to win that if stripped by Extirpate or Slaughter Games is just dead.

Land Tax being unbanned was one of the more surprising moves in recent history.  I thought the card would prove far too powerful with effects like Island Sanctuary and Solitary Confinement within a Loam shell.  So far I have been proven wrong as no such deck has even made a splash on the metagame and it seems Land Tax itself is just an outdated concept.

So with the lack of play these cards are seeing, why haven’t we seen a drop in price over the past few months?  Land Tax has taken a bit of a hit since its initial spike, but Academy Rector has held strong.  Aluren has spiked too recently to see any real trends, but I don’t expect an immediate drop even if it sees no competitive play.

I imagine the reason is because we concentrate on the retail value when we look at a card's value rather than looking at the real world market.  If we look at auction sites, we can see a completely different picture than the one painted on sites such as StarCity and Coolstuff.  Academy Rector, for example, is barely selling over fifteen dollars and some have even closed without sale around that price.  That is a far cry from the thirty dollars that retail is trying to squeeze out of people.  I imagine the reason the price has not sunk yet is because stores were bought out when the card spiked and had to restock.  Now the Rectors have sat stagnant for so long, but  they don’t want to drop the price and lose money.  They can also afford to sit on as many copies as they want just in case the card does do something.

So when a card looks to trending up in the future, I would suggest taking a second look at the playability of the card without jumping on the initial speculation.  If you are lucky enough to get in on the ground floor, it is hard to lose money, but people who realize that a card is spiking are unlikely to find copies at the desirable price and may pull the trigger on them.  Those people end up helping those on the lower floor to make money, and are the reason people can manipulate the market in such a way.  Buying out the market is neither a new concept nor a difficult on to grasp, but it does typically require more than one party.  When someone insists that you should get in on a card, myself included, do some research and make your own informed decision.  You will find that sometimes, even though you may have lost money, the buy list and auction sites never actually catch up with what you want to get out at…or even what you got in at.

The point I am trying to make is simple: be careful what you invest in.  There are a number of financially-minded people out there, many with very good opinions.  In the end, you need to do as much research as you can before you join the flock.  Sometimes missing a few cards that you could have made money on is better than blindly investing in a cards that hold stagnant or drop later for a loss. Every financial mind on the internet, even the #1 financial mind on Twitter, has a number of called shots that may never pan out.  The important thing is to make sure your portfolio is strong overall, and the best way to do that is to get as much advice and research as you can to make the most informed decision possible.

Thank you for reading this week. I really enjoyed writing this article and I apologize if it did not seem to provide much financial information, but I feel this is a topic few people think about before rushing into a call.  Next time you hear the internet is being bought out of something, just remember to really evaluate what the price point is likely to stop at and where you will cash out.  Join me next week as we approach the holidays.  Don’t forget to get your submissions in for the Modern Master’s completion!  Entries will not be accepted after the first of the year so be sure to rush them in now!

Ryan Bushard

@Crypplecommand