As I was contemplating what to write about this week, I was watching the Pro Tour coverage, catching up since I was in Cincinnati for the Star City Games event. While watching some of the coverage—which I must say I was not exactly impressed with—I realized just how wrong I may have been about Huntmaster of the Fells. Yes, you heard it here—I am, in fact, human and wrong. That brings me to this week’s topic that was spawned from this very scenario: what to do when you make a bad call?

I want to discuss everything from protecting yourself up front to when and how to back out of a bad call while minimizing your loses. This is a topic that I feel has not had much, if any, information provided from a financial standpoint. No one wants to admit when he’s wrong—certainly not someone whom the public looks up to and respects for various skills—whether it be a bad deck design, or in this case, a missed call shot.

Before I discuss the ugly part of a missed call, I want to cover some of the things you can do to prevent such things from breaking the bank. Though I may have missed this particular chance to make money off Huntmaster, this does not mean I lost any money. In the end, is the most important part. Scenarios like this, in which the card may or may not see significant enough play to drive its price even higher than it’s already steep presale price, I will usually opt for the safer route and stay away from the card until I know what it’s going to do. Although this can stifle your ability to make some great prerelease buys, it also prevents you from picking up the next Karn Liberated or Skaab Ruinator, finding out a few weeks later you have lost a significant percentage of the value. I would much rather stock up on cards that are woefully underpriced, such as Dungeon Geists, than take my chances with cards like Huntmaster of the Fells.

This is not to say I was any less wrong about the card or that I should not take responsibility for my calls, but given the option again, I feel that I would have made the same decision to not invest. Although I was wrong about the card’s playability, I do not feel I was wrong about the eventual price drop . . . it’ll just be after a longer period of time. The card is a solid $8 to $12 dollar mythic after reevaluating, and it may see spikes to as high as $20 at times, but the current price is still too high given that, in the end, it is still only a creature, and precedence shows those typically have a price cap of around $20.

So, what do you do if you went all in on a card like Skaab Ruinator or Karn Liberated when they were in the $15 to $20 range? The answer to that question truly depends on what you want out of your collection. If you are looking for a turnaround to continually buy collections, your actions should be significantly different than if you are willing to hold onto cards for months or even years. In the case of Skaab Ruinator, for example, I would keep ahold of them until they eventually spike again in the next year or so. This card is too powerful to not see some Top 8 play at some point in the next year, which should spike the price to at least $10, giving you a chance to get out while minimizing the loss—or even the chance to possibly make a small profit.

On the other hand, take a card such as Karn—he will likely appreciate over time given his playability in Commander and casual formats. This, however, does not help you if you are in the game for quick turnover and need the money. In this scenario, unless you are willing to sit on the card for two or more years, it only makes sense to dump Karns now to recoup some of your costs while the card is still a minor role player in Standard and therefore holding its price at a solid $8 to $10. Learning how to make the best of a called shot can not only provide you with the necessary capital to continue, but it can also provide you with some insight and knowledge about future called shots you may not have had otherwise.

So, now that you have an idea of what goes through my head when I miss a called shot, it’s time to look at another aspect of the same system. A lot of the cards I advocate picking up are typically bulk or only slightly better. This, of course, mitigates losses and allows a healthy profit even if a number of these called shots don’t pan out. Although we are making a solid amount of capital overall, when is it time to dust off that two-hundred-count box of six-month-old called shots and pack it in? Before you give up on anything, it is important to look at where the card stands in respect to where it was when you initially made the call.

What I mean by this is: Does the card have current or future applications given the current or possible metagame? Sometimes, a great called shot six months ago can be completely derailed by a new archetype—or even a new card in a set that may have lowered its playability. If you cannot see a viable deck in which such a card could feasibly see play, it may be time to pack it up and cut your losses. At that point, I will usually hold what I have until I find a vendor at an event paying 13.5 to 15 cents for bulk and ship what I can. This minimizes the loss and at the same time doesn’t force you to sit on cards forever in hopes of a future that is bleak and dismal.

If the card does have a potential to see play—for example, Skaab Ruinator—you must then weigh the risk against the possible reward. In Ruinator’s case, the risk is minimal that it drops any lower than its $2- to $3-dollar price tag. Most vendors are paying $1, and although that could drop when it rotates, it’s unlikely to fall below fifty cents given its possible playability even in Modern or Legacy down the road. The reward is a significantly higher percentage return given that, in the right home, the deck could be a solid contender, driving the price upward of $10. This would, in turn, spike the buy price, allowing you to profit exponentially. In this particular scenario, I would hold out at the very least until the card leaves Standard, and if it hasn’t seen its day by then, I’d chalk it up to a failed shot and sell out at a buck.

I truly hope I have been able to open some eyes this week—not only financially, but in reference to my articles as well. I don’t want this to be just another financial series in which I tell you what cards are going up, making you attempt to go to your local FNMs and grind trades all evening. Instead, I want this to become a trade resource, not only for the trading adept, but for the beginner as well. It’s because of this that I feel writing about topics such as this one is so important, especially when no one else wants to talk about it. You cannot truly be a great trader unless you understand every facet of what we do for a living, and although most of the time it is nothing but money and collections, there are some rough patches in between. If you have any comments or questions involving this week’s article, feel free as always to leave me a comment below or contact me through Twitter.

Before I go, I just want to talk a little more about the feature I will be running in a few weeks. I plan on interviewing a number of Magic-related websites that I feel can be helpful financial and informational tools—we’ll discuss exactly what it is they do. I currently have two websites, and I’m working on a third for the project. As a member of this community, do you have any well-kept secrets that you feel could aid other financial gurus to grow as a community? If so, send me information through either the comment section or my Twitter, or you can request my e-mail address if you prefer not to be a public source. I truly believe that the more educated the trade community is, the better we can learn from each other’s mistakes down the line so we can concentrate on what really matters in this business! Join me next week as I cover more great financial information in the world of Magic and show you how some clever trades can put you on top.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand