A New Approach

Posted on October 3, 2014

After a month or so away from the keyboard, it is time to bring Magic finance back to the lineup on Gathering Magic, this time with a facelift. I had been playing around with new ideas for this series for a while now, trying to figure out what you, the reader, were seeking. After a few talks with my editor and a reinvigorated passion to play Magic on my end, I hope I have come to gather some information this week in order to move forward. For all of you who have sent me great ideas over the past few months, I thank you, and I hope you see some of what you suggested come to fruition within this series.

I noticed a number of people this year begin to question why I was still working on the basics of Magic finance. Given that is where I started this series, I did not understand why today would be so different than two years ago when I first began. The reality of the situation is that there is enough basic information out there and available now such that if someone is just starting, he or she can probably find the answer with a quick search. This left me with a few options moving forward, but one thing was clear: My writing was archaic.

With all of that in mind, I have adapted both as a financial writer and as a player to bring you something that I hope will be far more beneficial. While considering how to tie Magic finance in with the current metagame—and not just make a top-five list every week—I looked at a few factors.

Standard is the most popular format with constant price adjustments.

Magic Online is my best resource for playing.

Playing Magic again gives me much better insight into not only what is winning, but into what is worth testing for down the road.

Magic Online pricing can give us insight into what is happening immediately, allowing time before physical cards see an impact, thus making it a potent tool.

Given that most people are still sticking to playing in person, I do not want this series to be directly tied to Magic Online pricing. That said, I will be talking about the prices of cards online, and over time, we’ll be learning to identify trends that then cause physical gains or losses. I have been playing Magic Online for years and understand the market as a whole, but Standard pricing can be sporadic and hostile much more so than in real life. This article will be meant as a learning tool for understanding and identifying these trends online, but that is but one facet I would like to include.

My first question this week is this:

[poll id="456"]

The next step, beyond me talking about the online-to-physical market correlation, would be implementing decklists from major tournaments. I will be using this as my primary focus, but I’ll be looking beyond just the Top 8 for each event. Looking for outlying cards that may not have been identified yet can create both value and a better understanding of what you may see at a tournament beyond just tier-one lists. I have a few different ways I can approach this, and this is where you have some more input:

[poll id="457"]

To give an example of how this may work, we can look at some of the lists from this past weekend’s StarCityGames Standard portion.

Abzan Midrange ? Khans of Tarkir Standard | William Comminos, 2nd at StarCityGames Open

Planeswalkers (4)
4 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

This deck took both of the top spots in Indy this weekend, and though there are not a ton of unexpected players here, we do have a few cards to touch on. Fleecemane Lion and Wingmate Roc both showed up in force this weekend, and while it was unclear before, it now seems likely that both will be featured in tier-one lists. This gives both the opportunity to jump over the next few weeks. I do not believe Wingmate Roc will spike in a way similar to Master of Waves, but I would not be surprised to see him double by the end of the Pro Tour.

Fleecemane Lion has a few issues keeping him down right now, primarily the focus on lands that come into play tapped, thus preventing you, in many cases, from casting him on turn two. It also hurts that he is competing against a few other cards in this spot, and that means that even if he could fit into a deck, he may not be as well suited as cards such as Sylvan Caryatid. That being said, it seems logical to pick up a play set for yourself if you feel this midrange-style deck is something you may want to play. He may not spike much, but he certainly is not dropping.

Pharika, God of Affliction is another card I saw a number of people bringing in from sideboards this weekend, and though this list does not sport any, it seems to be a powerful tool at beating other midrange decks that are looking to out-resource you. She has some of the same issues finding a home as Fleecemane Lion does, but given how low she is already as a mythic rare, her upside is much greater.

Jeskai Aggro was also a major player this weekend, focusing on a creature-light build with a burn endgame. This deck runs on efficiency and speed to out-tempo the opponent, and it’s something I very much enjoyed watching.

Jeskai Tempo ? Khans of Tarkir Standard | Kevin Jones, 1st at StarCityGames Open

One thing to note from this deck is the inclusion of Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker over Stormbreath Dragon. However, this spot is probably far from determined, given that I have seen combinations of both in a number of lists. No matter the one that is played here, the fact that there is a struggle between them does not bode well for either’s price; even with the play he is seeing, I would be moving my extra Sarkhans now.

Ashcloud Phoenix saw more play than expected this weekend, and though the range of decks that want this effect is limited, the price is also very low, making them great to snag now while everyone is still focused on picking up the high-ticket items.

Steam Augury is a card I have wanted to find a deck for since it was printed, and though I have seen numbers ranging from $2 to $4, any amount of play is likely to put this card on an upswing. It’s currently a bulk rare, but expect a hike after the Pro Tour if this deck continues to be a tier-one factor.

Mantis Rider has already spiked this week, and though I do not disagree that it was underpriced before, I have to believe it has hit its ceiling given how few decks can play him.

Those are just a few short examples of what I would be looking at moving forward. I would like to then examine a few decks that may currently be under the radar to identify specific cards, but given how much room I have each week, that may not always be possible, so again, I seek your input.

[poll id="458"]

Ascendancy Combo ? Khans of Tarkir Standard | Andrew Baeckstrom, 11th at StarCityGames Open

When I first saw this deck I dismissed it—as so many have—as a goofy combo that looks extremely fragile. After testing with it over the course of the past week, I cannot state how wrong I was. This deck has the ability to work through all of the removal and disruption to combo at a fairly quick pace. The namesake card Jeskai Ascendancy is still very low, and given that it is certainly a factor in the upcoming metagame, even if not in the top tier, it is something to watch out for.

I noticed a few weeks ago online that Twinflame had jumped, and though I was not sure why until I saw this list, I can say that the jump is justified. I do not know where many of these cards will end up, and I believe a lot of that is going to hinge on the Pro Tour, but I can say that if you have any inclination to play this deck, you will want to pick up the pieces now just in case.

This week is going to be the first of a few rough drafts until I figure out exactly how I can structure this series both to accommodate you and to build my own knowledge base. Standard and Magic Online finance are both something I am excited to move forward with. Beyond the few polls, if you have any other comments or suggestions, I would not only like to, but need to, hear them. Over the past few months, I have become increasingly that this article no longer properly serves the readership, so let’s change that. I am listening, and this series is for you, so please: If you believe there something that could bridge the gap between playing and finance for people, please bring it forward.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand