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Dark Moon Rising

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Last week, I covered some of the smart investments in Modern. With the PTQ season in full swing, it seems there has been shift already between the Magic Online and cardboard metagames. Keeping ahead of these shifts is, of course, how a trader makes his money—always being a step ahead of the player. Speaking of staying a step ahead, we now have the full spoiler for Dark Ascension, which will be prereleasing tonight across the world at your local game stores. What does this mean for you the trader? It means it is time to sit down with a drink, kick back, and do some studying! Spoiler season may be the most important and lucrative time of the year for those willing to take a little risk. If you want to take a bit of a shortcut this time around, keep reading because I have done all the work for you. Overall, I have to say this set doesn’t excite me much when it comes to Constructed play, which, of course, is what gives a card its value. Usually, I would break these spoilers up into two parts and cover each rare, but given the lack of playability coming from most of the cards in this set, I will just make this a single article and only cover the cards I believe have a chance of seeing serious tournament play.

Increasing Devotion

Anyone not living under a rock since the spoiler season started knows that W/B tokens is shaping up to be a viable Tier 1 deck. The ability to put five guys into play seems strong—even more so when they are Humans. I feel that this card may be among the more overhyped cards in the set. Yes, it is great to be able to flash it back in the late-game, but how often does a deck like this truly want a game to go that long? As an aggro strategy, I feel putting expensive sorcery-speed cards into your deck that provide a minimal effect when you can just pay 1 more for a Titan is a bad strategy. I don’t see this card seeing much more than kitchen-table play in the long run, but if you can manage to snag a few copies early at under $1, it may be an easy flip in the first week.

Verdict: $1 to $2

Séance

This is another one of those cards like Semblance Anvil and Heartless Summoning that is just begging to be broken somewhere down the line. Given the number of solid enters-the-battlefield abilities and other interactions with this card, we may see a control-based self-mill deck pop up. Even if the idea doesn’t work out, the card is intriguing and certainly worth stashing a few copies for cheap just in case. Just to give a few examples, this works great with cards like Jin-Gitaxias, Sun Titan, and Geist-Honored Monk. Keeping an eye out for cards like this while everyone concentrates on the planeswalkers and mythics can net you a solid profit a few months down the line.

Verdict: ?

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

There isn’t much I have to say about this card that you don’t already know. Hate bears have always been solid pickups from the time of Gaddock Teeg. A cheaper—granted, more awkward—Glowrider is a welcome addition to the current metagame. I can certainly see this card spiking to $10 if the demand becomes high enough. The legendary part does hurt her chances of being a big money rare, but given her playability across a number of formats, I would not be surprised to see her price creep that high.

Verdict: $6 to $8

Thraben Doomsayer

This card might not seem like much in the current environment, but I have high hopes for this guy in Modern as a possible combo enabler with Intruder Alarm. Though the deck may not even currently be a thought, the metagame may shift at some point to bring it about as a viable option. In Standard, the card may see some play in the tokens build or perhaps even a midrange aggro-control deck, but I don’t see it making huge waves immediately. This is one of those sleepers I like to pick up for cheap in hopes that, at some point, it will see fringe play so I can dump it. Worst case scenario: You should be able to buy these at a little over bulk prices once the presale prices drop off, meaning you’re not putting much into a risky speculation that could net you a great deal down the road.

Verdict: $4 to $5

Dungeon Geists

As you can see, we make it quite a way into the blue portion of the spoiler before we find a card even remotely playable . . . That, fortunately, means blue may have a tougher time than usual dominating the format without extra help. However, that doesn’t help us financially—most rares you open of this color will be complete garbage. Dungeon Geists may see some fringe play in a tap-out-control deck next to Frost Titan, but I am not holding my breath because of how popular I expect token decks to be. It is somewhat more difficult to find this guy a home if the top-tier decks are overwhelming you with quantity and not quality. I would pick them up at near-bulk now when you can find them. I wouldn’t dive headlong into this call, but I can certainly see it gaining popularity somewhere in its year-and-a-half span in Standard.

Verdict: $3 to $4 (down the road)

Increasing Confusion

I am not certain about this card either, but just given the fact that you essentially mill three times x cards over the course of two turns, it may see some play in a mill control deck. Unfortunately, we are in a block in which milling your opponent is typically one of the last things you want to do, and if you are attempting to mill yourself, there are just, plain and simply better ways.

Verdict: Bulk

Curse of Misfortunes

It appears that WotC is attempting to build some sort of Curse control deck for us given some of the new Curses in this set. I don’t see the archetype picking up much popularity at first because of how expensive all the good Curses are and how many sorcery-speed, virtually dead cards you have to play to make this work, but that’s what we have the Patrick Chapins of the world for. If there was any strategy to come out of this set that could take a room by surprise, it would be Curses. Unfortunately, the deck has little to no staying power because of how many enchantment-removal spells we have, including the newly reprinted Ray of Revelation. Fortunately, all we worry about in terms of the financial aspect is the initial spike, so picking these up at bulk while you can may not be a bad choice.

Verdict: Bulk for now for what could be $3 to $4 down the road.

Geralf's Messenger

Finally a card worth talking about! This guy is among the better black creatures we have seen since the Zendikar days. I don’t expect to see a huge commitment to mono-black right off the bat, but this guy is certainly strong enough to warrant a pretty good pull in that direction. He also works great with Sun Titan and Hex Parasite to keep the pain coming. The enters-the-battlefield-tapped part is somewhat unfortunate, but without it, this guy would likely stop some aggro decks in their tracks. I hope to see a mono-black control variant with this guy at the helm for early creature drops. All of a sudden, Black Sun's Zenith became a lot sexier in this new metagame—as a way to both reset this guy and clear W/B tokens.

Verdict: $6 to $7

Gravecrawler

Two in a row now; it appears things are looking up. Between this guy and the Messenger, we have the solid start to this mono-black deck already in the works. Conveniently, being able to be cast from the grave after the aforementioned Black Sun, this guy could prove to be an overwhelming force in combination with all the Zombie love we are getting.

Verdict: $6 to $7

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed

I am still not sure what I think of this guy for Standard, but in all honesty, that won’t be what drives his price. This legend has Commander written all over him; you are looking at one of the newest overpowered Commanders to hit the format in a while. The tricks with cards like Triskelion are endless. Picking up any foreign or foil copies of this guy you can should prove to be a wise move down the road—I don’t see their prices tanking any no matter what the regular card does. As for Standard play, it is yet to be seen if this guy can compete with Grave Titan or Wurmcoil Engine for the 6-drop spot. Unfortunately, he does not possess the very keyword he endows on others, making him fairly fragile for the cost.

Verdict: Foil and foreign have nowhere to go but up!

 


 

Well, I was going to cover the whole set this week, but it appears I am long-winded, so I will hold off on the rest until next week. If you have any questions about particular cards, leave me a comment, and I will respond as soon as I can. Although this set looks to be weak overall, there are certainly some gems hidden deep within that have yet to be discovered. In addition to the new cards, I will also be covering what cards I feel may be affected by the new set once the Standard metagame shifts in a few weeks. Have fun at your prereleases, and keep your eyes out for those hidden gems everyone else neglects. Dump those high-end mythics now before they tank, and invest in the unsung heroes of the set!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand

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