The title of this article is a quote from billionaire and stock market legend Warren Buffet. Much like common stocks, a card's value is susceptible to the various forces of the market.  The key to navigating these shifts in value is to determine a cards actual value.  There are multiple ways to judge a card's value.  There's a rarity value, a casual value, a tournament sideboard factor and the always elusive "coolness" gauge that must be taken into account.  Monetary value is a great way of looking at what the entirety of the Magic community thinks about a card.  Today I'll be looking at several cards from Magic 2010 that I feel have been improperly assessed by the current market.    In some cases, great cards are missed while other times they are given far too much attention.  This isn't to say that any of the following cards are or are not "good cards".  I'll strictly be looking at the current monetary value of the cards and weighing that against my own evaluation of said card.  For example:  If Lightning Bolt were selling for $6 I would be forced to deem it overvalued.  That doesn't mean Lightning Bolt isn't a great card.  It just means it is overvalued and overrated at the moment.  Try and think about these cards as though they were stocks.  As though you were going to buy 1000 copies of them.  Which would you purchase for future profit?  Which would you sell now, at their high?   Here are my thoughts on M10's "stocks".

[caption id="attachment_3968" align="alignright" width="225" caption="Slightly better than the 5 for $5.55 deal at Arbys. But overvalued none the less."]

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Baneslayer Angel - Overvalued - I know I'm not the first to say this, and I'm certainly not the first to think it.  Baneslayer Angel is overrated.  Hear me out Timmys of the world!  This isn't to say that it's not, pound for pound, the best creature card ever printed (it is).   This isn't to say that the flavor doesn't ooze out of every pore of this card (it does).  And this certainly doesn't mean that I didn't scream like a 13 year old girl at a Hannah Montana concert when I pulled this out of a pack last week (I did).  The point here is that Baneslayer Angel is a big creature.  A big creature with little or no protection.  What makes Cloudgoat Ranger a favorite 5 drop among pro players?  You can't simply Doom Blade it's effects away.  No one wants to play bigger creatures without protection because you'll end up wasting your turn 5 while your opponent uses one mana to thwart it on your own turn!   Granted, if your opponent is ill prepared, you're probably going to win the game with this Angel.  But most will probably Path to Exile her 3 seconds after she hits the table.  In fact, I've yet to deal damage with her in my deck.  This isn't to say that huge threats that force your opponent's hands aren't good!  She's a MUST kill.  This negative assessment has much more to do with the over-hype of this card than it does with its actual in game value.  $25+ is just outrageous for such a creature.  Of course, cards like Nicol Bolas, Elspeth and inevitably BSA are going to go for a bit more just because of their flavor and "coolness" factor.  But nevertheless, this card is overpriced, overvalued, and scarcely playable in anything but a casual setting.  And even then you'd better hope they don't play creature destruction because if so.. you just lost your big turn 5.

Pithing Needle - Undervalued - As a blue wizard myself I am a strong adherer to the "cog in the machine" theory of Magic the Gathering.  Which is to say- If a deck is built around one card, I'm going to find that "cog" and poke it out of your "machine" with minimal effort (pardon the inadvertent sexual innuendo there).  Time Sieve?  Gone.  Glen Elendra Archmage?  Gimped.  But I don't need to list off the uses for this thing to you, they're obvious.  The reason for this card being listed here is that it is now going for anywhere from 5-7$ and dropping!  I'm not sure if this is because everyone  has their playset already (which I doubt.. people bought WoG like crack for 10 years) or people have just grown tired of this staple sideboard card.  Personally, I'd put this on a list of "cards everyone should own 4 of, all the time, no matter what".  Grab them for five bucks while you still can.  You just know that Zendikar, Worldwake or "Prosper" will have some crazy artifact or creature with an activated ability "cog" just begging for a good "poking".

M10 Dual Lands - Undervalued - If only because we're about to lose most of our mana changing lands in October.  But more than that.  These are the perfect compromise for the dual color aficionado.  I don't think Wizards or Richard Garfield (video of RG talking about overly-expensive cards) for that matter ever intended to play with $40, exclusively non-basic lands.  But in today's climate, basic lands just seem silly!  These lands are the perfect balance of a great dual colored land with a slight drawback and a balanced way to get around said drawback.  They seem dull and uninteresting compared to the vivid lands and Reflecting Pool.  But mark my words.  These now $6-$8 lands will skyrocket to at least $12 once Lorwyn rotates out.  No matter what Zendikar does, its probably not going to make up for those lands.  People will be looking to these for help getting their Alara block cards into play.

Elvish Archdruid - Overvalued - Any fair minded observer of MTG standard would agree that the recent influx of Green Elf decks can be almost entirely attributed to this single card.  Disagree?  Where were those decks prior to this?   I wouldn't want to knock on a card simply because it can be easily countered or destroyed, that can be said for any card, particularly creatures.  But when its a 2/2 creature that is the key to your entire deck I must take issue with that deck's fragility.  Two well-timed Doom Blades and you're done.  You're stuck with four mana, three Elvish Visionarys and a 5 drop Overrun in your hand.  I think people got surprised by these decks on the pro tour.  Their speed and ability to get 7, 8, or 9 mana out before the fifth turn is outrageous, and nothing to scoff at.  But I think people have wizened up since and have kept a few removal spells in their sideboard.  A great lord, a wonderful card and a treat for elf lovers everywhere.  But at 12 bucks a pop (and rising) I have to call this guy overvalued.

Guardian Seraph - Undervalued - Allow me to read your mind (I am a fairly adept blue wizard after all) - "Isn't Baneslayer Angel better for one more mana?!"  Ahh yes, the age old question.  Should I pay one more for something a little better? (okay, a lot better in this case!)  The difference between a card that costs four mana and a card that costs five mana is exponential.  And it gets even more exponentially unplayble after that!  Why do you think amazing creatures like Guile and Dread aren't played by the pros?   This guy is a bit more forgiving on your mana curve than BSA.  Turn four should be a big turn, don't get me wrong, but turn five is usually the beginning of the end of any pro level game.  And to have five mana on turn five is assuming you're either mana accelerating or consistently drawing lands.   Assuming isn't something the big boys like to do all that much.  That being said the Guardian Seraph is a perfectly acceptable turn four play.  Particularly in this age of creature swarms, it's a 3/4 flying token blocker that also gimps the rush.  Heck I wouldn't even mind stacking another one of these guys on turn five and saving that extra 1 mana (if you've got it) for a Path to Exile, Silence or Harm's Way.  Red decks will have a tough time dealing with even one of these guys.  At 2 bucks, less than the price of a pack, this guy is a steal.

Liliana Vess - Undervalued - Reinhart- "Didn't you just go on a tirade about cards costing five or more?"  I know, I know, she costs five.   As with most things in Magic, there are exceptions. I feel as though planeswalkers are one of those exceptions.  The ability to put out a huge threat/target out and play spells for free each turn makes them such.  My main reason for this inclusion is the recent release of top-decking cards such as Djinn of Wishes and Lurking Predators.  Demonic Tutor isn't going to set you up for one of those.  There's also Clashing, Kinship and  Cascade to consider.  I've always felt that poor, forgotten Lili was underrated as a walker/threat.  But now, with these new potential combos and our lady selling for $5 or $6 (dear god that's almost at Chandra level value!), I think now is the time to pick up a couple of copies of the overlooked black mistress.

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The inspiration for this article really came from the Black Lotus Project.  They track the fair value prices for all Magic the Gathering cards and provide that data to webmasters like me to share with players like you!  All in all, a pretty cool thing.  Check it out and keep an eye on the "stock ticker" price list we have going on the sidebar.  A big thanks to Ross for the help getting that going!

I'd also like to invite you all to check out TrollandToad.com.  As an industry leader, I'm sure you're aware of them.  They have a huge MTG selection with fair prices and decent ship times.  They provided the "real world" prices for the above cards as they are the industry standard for card rates as far as I'm concerned.  Not too high, not eBay low either but just about right.  I'd recommend checking them out.  One big bonus is that they seem to be able to get M10 booster boxes!  I haven't been able to find them at my local shops or even online at fair prices.  I also stumbled upon their badass clearance section last night with Future Sight Boosters for $2 and Time Spiral Tourmament Packs for $3.50 (eq. of 3 boosters). So check them out as well.

One last thing - The Magic the Gathering Bragster Competition is coming to a close.  While I invite you all to enter the contest yourselves, I would also encourage you to take a look at my personal brags.  The contest ends August 17th so make haste!  And good luck to all other entrants.