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Main » Articles » Commander vs. Modern

Commander vs. Modern

Jeremy Blair
Posted on August 30, 2011
 Reddit

Let’s face it. You are not about to read a financial article from one of the great traders, backpackers, and/or retail suppliers of our Magic community. I am no Jonathan Medina. I am not an insider with a subscription to Quiet Speculation, and I don’t try to stand toe to toe with financial advisors like our very own (or at least shared) JR Wade. My advice and simple point of view cannot be considered “next-level speculation,” I don’t stock my bots using the MTGO platform, and I barely have any “traderous instincts.”

Every Magic site hosts a column authored by a reputable financial advisor, and I often find myself reading over the advice. I am not that financial advisor, but rather a fan of collecting and lover of sweet investments. While I love reading financial tips and collecting tricks, the focus of the articles typically hones in on sanctioned tournament play. The Legacy, Standard, and newly announced Modern Constructed formats primarily drive the prices of Magic cards. The tournament success and popularity of these formats can turn one of your favorite pet cards into a desirable tournament staple, or can violently shift, leaving a hefty financial investment wilting away in your binder.

Commander vs. Legacy

When I began playing Elder Dragon Highlander in 2008, I lucked into a small cardboard fortune. Local playmates, like Sheldon Menery, showed up to league play with decks that were super pimped-out. Sometimes, you might see a hundred-card pile of Highlander foils, while other times, you might be facing down a five-color deck sporting the entire span of foreign black-bordered dual lands. Legacy and Vintage were both nearly asleep in Florida, and it was relatively easy and often inexpensive to snatch awesome cards for your collection.

We generated a list of fantastic Commander selections and hunted through foil binders and bargain bins for our treasure. We were American Pickers, but with an EDH twist. After waking up Saturday mornings, we would drive up and down Florida’s west coast in search of our favorite cards. They were easy to find. Most brick-and-mortar stores were entirely focused on selling Magic singles for Standard tournaments. No one would think of letting Elspeth, Knight-Errant slip away for less than $20 to $30, but old binders hid $6 foil copies of Genesis. Quarter bins were filled with “useless” Magic cards with outrageous converted mana costs. I used to purchase cards like Decree of Pain, Time Stretch, Bribery, and Doubling Season for 50¢.

The money (chase) Commander cards required us to break out actual paper money. After all, the revised dual lands would run a player about $18 to $25 dollars. I bought a couple of Bayous and Badlands for under $15 dollars. Heck, they had white borders and no popular tournament scene driving up their price. I feel like an old-timer recounting the times when you could buy a bottle of Coke for 10¢. However, this was just over three years ago, and we were not even watching television in black-and-white.

In the latter part of 2009, the Star City Legacy tournaments were generating buzz. The prices of some of my Commander cards were beginning to rise, and I found fewer and fewer great deals on our casual format staples. By 2010, the Interwebs and local game stores were filled with speculators and earnest players scooping up cards for their Legacy Zoo decks, my Moat climbed above $200, and cards like The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale nearly broke $300. The once-obtainable dual lands more than doubled in price, and casual cards like Show and Tell, large legends like Progenitus, and free counterspells began the ascension.

Sometimes, when folks watch my Commander videos on YouTube, they comment about the fortune spent on the decks. Internet trolls love to point out the small fortunes that you waste on foil cards and the vile nature of building sweet, expensive decks. There is a little bit of a trick. Sure, we purchased some cool cards. I collected the judge-foil promotional Maze of Ith, some foil Vampiric and Demonic Tutors, and even foil Asian versions of my Commanders. However, most of those cards were relatively inexpensive before Commander exploded and prior to the swinging Legacy tournament scene. The foil Maze of Ith could be had for less than $30. At the Grand Prix in Tampa, Florida, the artists sold the card for $25. The tutors were had for around $20 to $30, and foil Commanders were easy pickings from any online website. My foil Rofellos was my most expensive purchase at $12, while Azami, Lady of Scrolls ran me about $3 for the first copy and up to $8 for my last copies. It was a different time.

The Loss of Old Extended

When WotC created the now-defunct “new” Extended format, the price of the Ravnica block shock lands neared an all-time low. My wife and I had recently begun playing Extended, and we owned quite a few of the shock duals. You could dump them to buy lists or simply bury them among your Commander staples. We let go of a few, but largely packed them into our growing collection of Commander decks.

At any given time, I might have twenty to thirty Commander decks assembled. I play in two leagues and often have our card-flipping friends over for kitchen-table battles. When I first began creating decks, like most folks, I did not have all of the materials needed for “proper construction.” I also hate proxy cards and will generally make suboptimal versions of decks that fall into the project part of my collection. While about ten of my Commander decks are assembled with the exact cards that I want in each hundred-card roster, the remaining new or “project” decks await transplants and acquisitions for upgrades.

When the older version of Extended was axed, my project decks were infused with lots of “banned” goodies. The old fetch land cycle made an excellent addition to the project decks. Every play set of Flooded Strands and Polluted Deltas retired from tournament play and were separated into the neediest awaiting decks. Do most folks do this? My Commander decks are like cardboard retirement homes. Jace, the Mind Sculptor comes to mind. He quickly found a new set of sleeves as the ban hammer knocked him out of Standard. I had hopes of wielding my favorite planeswalker in Modern, but guess he will have to hang around with Sol Rings and Eternal Witnesses as he rides out his retirement.

In early spring 2011, the former all-stars of old Extended that did not make an appearance on the Legacy tournament scene began appearing for great prices in glass cases across the country. Even cards that peeked into the older formats like Dark Depths saw a decline in price. A number of my league-playing buddies started picking up foil shock lands and fallen stars for reasonable prices. For a short time, they were like the original dual lands in 2008. In fact, a number of cards from the Mirrodin block, Ravnica block and the like can be found populating highlander decks. With the announcement of the Modern format and the quick rise in prices, I am experiencing déjà vu.

Modern vs. Commander

While not initially apparent, the new Modern format is going to sharply influence the price of Commander cards. Maybe this is not a mind-altering hypothesis given recent history, but it can guide our collecting, trading, and playing habits. While there are a small number of cards that will dramatically, instantly change in price; I predict that there will be a litany of unexpected financial creepers that might take uninformed Commander players by surprise.

There are some obvious cards that headline Modern financial discussions. These are known entities. I encourage you to take part in the forum discussions, twitter debates, and comment section buzzing. Like Legacy, we are seeing an instantaneous explosion in the popularity of the format, speculation, and the price of Ravnica block shock lands. Here are some of the top gainers that most folks have already noted:

Real Estate Prices: Obvious Modern $$$ Lands

No real news here, right. These lands saw a great deal of play in the old Extended format. They are especially potent with fetch lands. Before we used the dual basic lands printed on the shock lands paired with Scourge block fetches to build and fix complicated, decisive mana bases. Now we can use the newly printed Zendikar fetch land cycle to do the same. In addition to the shock lands, we have Grove of the Burnwillows (along with Punishing Fire) and Mutavault as early financial gainers. These known quantities range from around $20 to almost $40 (Hallowed Fountain) at the time of this article.

This will likely be one major group of cards influencing Commander players. There are a group of players that like to run the original dual lands, shock lands and the fetch lands that best support their multi-colored generals. While the mana bases have been historically pricey, they are going to financially challenge new players coming to the format hoping to run “the perfect” mana base. While cards like Mutavault and Grove of the Burnwillows are rarely found in highlander decks, the shock lands are relatively common place. Many players opted for shock lands in lieu of the pricier original dual lands. Are those days behind us?

It is possible that players looking for a cheaper way to build awesome land infrastructures for their Commander decks will turn away from the fetch/dual/shock land plan turning to the filter lands. Wait! Those have also doubled in price? It is time to advise Commander players to snatch up filter lands while they are relatively inexpensive unless they are prepared to rock lands that come into play tapped or stare down pain lands for color correction.

Real Estate Prices: Less Obvious $$ Lands

How many readers have two to three copies of Vesuva? How many of you knew that Channelfireball.com is offering you $20 cash for your copies? Vesuva is a pretty standard card in Commander. In fact, I run it in over half of my decks and almost fainted when the price ran up into the $30 range. This list of cards might not hit every player, but many of these utility lands see a great deal of play in Commander and might see vast success in Modern. Many of the cards from this list have jumped 200% to 300% in the last couple of weeks and show little sign of slowing down. If you have a bunch of extra copies, you might want to sell them off or trade them for a great profit. If you have want a card from this list, you should act sooner than later or search for other options. I would have a hard time purchasing a Vesuva for $30 when they could formerly be obtained for around $4 to $5. However, they are really great cards next to a play set of Cloudposts and four Glimmerpost.

The Price to Equip Has Just Gone Up

Aside from Modern’s influence on the price of Magical real estate, Commander players are likely going to feel a bit of a pinch from key beloved equipments. In fact, there are going to be a number of artifacts that will become harder to obtain. Let’s run through some of the most popular options that typically find a place in hundred-card stacks:

While the sticker price of the swords jumped with the advent of Stoneforge Mystic-based Standard decks, speculation on Modern versions of Caw-Blade has driven these cards a bit higher. In fact, there is a general growing interest in lots of cards that might potentially see play. Ensnaring Bridge was always awesome in Doran, the Siege Tower decks and has been held out as an option for dealing with Zoo decks. Cards like Engineered Explosives and Chalice of the Void see mild play in Commander, but typically don’t make appearances as often as Extraplanar Lens, Isochron Scepter, Gilded Lotus, and Crucible of Worlds. AEther Vial was banned in Wizard’s Community Cup Modern tournament only to get the greenlight for play at the Pro Tour. In general, this section is a little slower to grow but will ultimately affect the Commander format.

The Modern Man/The Modern Monster

While cards like Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant have not historically been huge players in Commander, legendary creatures including Doran, Gaddock Teeg, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, and Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind have fought alongside soon-to-be Modern all-stars like Noble Hierarch, Eternal Witness, Knight of the Reliquary, and Woodfall Primus in our Commander decks for the last couple of years. Here is a list of Modern-legal legends and Commander staples that might increase in price:

This is an extensive list and somewhat speculative. However, if you were going to choose one of these cards for an upcoming deck or, goodness forbid, wanted to foil out one of these legends as your flashy Commander, you might want to do it soon. Do you know the price on a foil Vendilion Clique? They eBay at roughly $80 to $100. I would recommend claiming one of the few DCI judge-foil promotional versions before they prices are too insane.

The General Increase in Format Staples

There are clearly two things happening in the world of Commander. The newly announced Modern format is driving key cards up in price and the general interest in the format is driving up prices. Let’s run through a number of important, relevant instant, sorceries, planeswalkers and enchantments to watch during this time of rapid change:

I would particularly like to point out the potential increase in value of Life from the Loam, Cryptic Command, and Tooth and Nail. In my local area, these cards appear in nearly every pod. Along with Bribery, these Modern cards are poised to really take off given the right set of circumstances. If Hive Mind is the format’s premier combo deck, then expect cards like Pact of Negation (already $20) and Summoner's Pact to really increase. There are obvious cards that see a good deal of Commander play that might actually move from our casual battlefields to the Pro Tour.

Will We Catch a Break?

I began the article with a brief history of the effect that Legacy had on Commander card values. About midway through the article, I drew a parallel that will likely come to fruition. Modern is going to increase (or has already increased) the value and price tag on a great number of cards used in Commander deck construction and play. This is a little tough, but I think there might be some light at the proverbial end of the tunnel.

As attention has shifted to Modern, the Legacy buzz has died down a bit. Force of Will and Wasteland are not instant sellers on every online auction and the prospectors that once focused with laser-like precision on “the next big thing” have glanced away from Legacy. Like a nerdy Nostradamus, I would like to make a prediction:

Legacy Will Experience a Significant Recession!

I think we will catch a break over the next couple of years. While Legacy has been very popular in the United States, much of this popularity has been linked to the availability of tournaments, live coverage of events, a growth in local play groups, and large companies supporting organized play. Sure Legacy gets a brief nod a couple of times during the Grand Prix schedule, but its days of vast growth, seemingly limitless growth potential, and vast popularity are over. I predict (my opinions are my own and not educated by inside sources) that Star City Games will replace the Legacy Open with a Modern Open. ChannelFireball has already put up an early buy list for many of the cards in this article that have all the makings of a “next new thing” for speculators, traders, and financial folks.

Commander players will see falling prices on cards that might have become a little financially overextended. The dual lands will retreat a small amount. I don’t expect people who spent $120 on Underground Sea to start dumping them to dealers and pushing them online for $60, but we might see folks accept $80 to $90. Our Commander classics like Sensei's Divining Top, Vindicate, and Sneak Attack might begin to approximate the pricing of 2009.

In turn, I think the Modern card prices will rise and eventually fall a bit after some key reprintings. Supply and demand typically drives the long term markets on cards. Most folks understand that there are thousands and thousands more available Hallowed Fountain than there are Tundras. While there might be more interest in Modern, there is also a vast difference in card availability. Therefore, I would like to close with a word of caution to my Commander-playing readers. Take some time. Evaluate the financial repercussions of picking up Modern cards at very high prices. Consider selling off some of your extra Modern cards soon and save some of that money for falling Legacy legal cards you have always wanted. Further, if you are overstocked on those Legacy lands and bought into the format as an investment, you might think about trimming your holdings. The world of Magic is changing.

TAGS articles, elder dragon highlander, edh, financial, commander, modern, jeremy blair

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