Locations
It's day one of Pro Tour Murders at Karlov Manor, and after a difficult draft where you were only able to manage a 1-2, you're a perfect 2-0 so far in constructed with your Rakdos Vampires deck. Confidence in the deck is high, as you and your team full of Hall of Famers worked on it for over a week and are almost all playing it, so you're very happy to be in the constructed rounds and show some folks the power of Vein Ripper! Pairings go up for round six, and you reach your table to see this guy staring back at you.
(Without the trophy, of course).
Of course that's Nathan Steuer, the 2022 Magic: the Gathering World Champion (who just snuck in ahead of you on tiebreakers in that World Championship for the last playoff spot and took it all the way to the trophy, leaving you in fifth place). He's playing Izzet Phoenix, and after splitting the first two games you go into game three on the play. Nathan mulligans to six and you fire off a turn one Thoughtseize and see this hand:
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
What do you take?
Setting The Stage
As if it wasn't clear, this was not a hypothetical, but my real round six of Pro Tour Murders at Karlov Manor last month. The late rounds of day two are extremely important, as are any round where you're playing against a stone-cold killer, as the winner here would move to 4-2 and lock up day two, and the loser would fall down to a stone average 3-3.
We do need a bit more info before we can delve into this difficult Thoughtseize, so let's take a look at what was going on our side of things.
I was playing the Team CFB & Friends Rakdos Vampires deck, with a slightly different list than eventual champion Seth Manfield (who was by far the most deviated from our team list):
Rakdos Vampires | Pioneer | Jim Davis
- Creatures (15)
- 4 Vein Ripper
- 3 Preacher of the Schism
- 4 Dusk Legion Zealot
- 4 Bloodtithe Harvester
- Spells (20)
- 4 Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord
- 4 Fable of the Mirror-Breaker
- 1 Duress
- 4 Thoughtseize
- 1 Bitter Triumph
- 4 Fatal Push
- 2 Smuggler's Copter
And my opening hand (before casting Thoughtseize) was this:
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
 |
 |
In case it wasn't clear, there's a lot more to this question than simply "what card should I take?" Our goal from this first turn is to have an idea what the first few turns of the game are going to look like, and plan accordingly.
Having A Plan
The goal here is not to take the best card in a vacuum, but take the card that begins a sequence that is game winning for you. The choice you make here on this turn one informs your choices for the next few turns, including what you next Thoughtseize will take as well as how you play your threats.
In short, this a "choose your own adventure" type puzzle; we pretty much need to map out what our first three turns look like to make a good choice here.
But first let's evaluate the cards that Nathan has in his hand here:
|
|
Well, Thoughtseize isn't Encroach, so we're obviously not taking Spirebluff Canal, but Nathan's hand being a one lander has a major impact on our choices going forward. Nathan is going to need at least one more land to do much of anything this game, and this is perhaps the biggest unknown as far as his hand goes. Is there a land on top? Will he need to spin his wheels for a few turns to find it?
Which of course leads us to the only cantrip in the hand, Consider. Izzet Phoenix is a deck with a very low land count, predicated by the 12 or so one mana cantrips which can help find those lands early and gas late. Consider is the only card in Nathan's hand that will aid him in finding that all important second land, which makes it a very tempting target. However, Nathan also has two natural draw steps to find a land or another cantrip, meaning that Consider is essentially the most replaceable card in his hand.
Then there are the removal spells.
|
|
Both Fiery Impulse and Lightning Axe line up perfectly against our Bloodtithe Harvester and Preacher of the Schism, creating an interesting squeeze. Lightning Axe in particular is one of their best answers to our harder to deal with threats like Preacher and Vein Ripper, although it is a bit awkward in this six-card hand that hasn't found a Treasure Cruise yet.
This is where the planning comes in, as we know the relative value of each of these cards compared to the cards in our own hand. Also, because we have a second Thoughtseize, we can pick things apart before deploying our threats to help clear a path.
Lastly, we have the two creatures.
|
|
A big part of Izzet Phoenix's post-board plan against Leyline of the Void and other graveyard hate is to rely on non-graveyard creature threats like Young Pyromancer, Crackling Drake, and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker. All three of these cards can run away with the game unchecked, and at present the only answer to Young Pyromancer is the Bloodtithe Harvester which is under heavy fire from the two removal spells in hand. While another land needs to be found, Young Pyromancer has a chance to take over the game here if it is unimpeded.
Picklock Prankster is less relevant for these early turns, but in the absence of graveyard hate is the best way in this hand to both find and enable a Treasure Cruise that would likely break the game open if we are not able to apply enough pressure. That being said, that is more of a future problem when there are so many more time-sensitive things to deal with.
So, What's The Plan?
With four cards all potential choices, Consider, Fiery Impulse, Lightning Axe, or Young Pyromancer, we now need to formulate what the plans is for the first few turns of this game. With a second Thoughtseize available we have the opportunity to go back in and get another card later, and with all of these cards interacting in one way or another there's a lot to puzzle out.
Option One:
- Turn one - Thoughtseize the Fiery Impulse
- Turn two - Play Bloodtithe Harvester
- Turn three - Reevaluate, potentially just jamming Preacher of the Schism or casting Thoughtseize if needed
The first option is to clear out the easy removal spell for your turn two play, which is also an answer to the Young Pyromancer in hand. Having Nathan cast Lightning Axe on Bloodtithe Harvester would be an excellent outcome, further eating away at the cards in hand and clearing the way for your Preacher of the Schism, and you will always be able to Thoughtseize it before playing Preacher if you desire. This also allows you to apply pressure quickly to keep the game from going long and getting into Treasure Cruise mode.
For the sake of transparency, this is the line that I took in the actual game.
Option Two:
- Turn one - Thoughtseize the Lightning Axe
- Turn two - Play Bloodtithe Harvester, offering it to the Fiery Impulse
- Turn three - Play Preacher of the Schism and hopefully ride it to victory
This path is a bit less aggressive, as while Preacher of the Schism can draw cards and provide a snowball-style effect on the game, it doesn't close particularly fast and can't keep up with Treasure Cruise. The good news is that the second Thoughtseize can hit on turn four, and we will have hopefully drawn something else to do on turn four as well. The second Thoughtseize may be able to go after Picklock Prankster or a drawn Treasure Cruise.
Option Three:
- Turn one - Thoughtseize the Consider
- Turn two - Thoughtseize the Lightning Axe
- Turn three - Play Preacher of the Schism and hopefully ride it to victory
This was the line that my teammate Sam Pardee came up with after the match, and frankly I hadn't even considered the possibility of not playing Bloodtithe Harvester on turn two. I had also closed the door on taking Consider, given how many successes that Nathan has over his first two draw steps to just naturally find a land or another cantrip which makes it feel like a waste of a Thoughtseize.
However, given how well Nathan's hand lines up with ours, this plan does the best job of producing a stumble as well as denying an answer to our Preacher of the Schism which may allow us to snowball to victory. If Nathan doesn't find a natural land but some sort of cantrip and has to spend the first few turns fiddling around with cantrips then we've got a good chance to run away with it, and if we play Bloodtithe Harvester on turn four while Nathan is trying to put things together, he may not have spare mana to spend on killing it. We also have to have a little faith that our deck will produce a few more threats along the way.
Of the three this is the one I am most happy with.
The blind spot here is not discussing the Young Pyromancer, which is threatening both as a threat as well as a way to bridge them to Treasure Cruise as the game goes on, but it's also a card that only plays super well if they don't stumble. If they find a land immediately with no help and you don't play the Bloodtithe Harvester on turn two, they can potentially play it on turn two or three, but I think taking Consider to try and force the stumble is a backwards way of answering the Young Pyromancer as well.
Still Not Sure What's Right!
And the best part? Even after talking it over with a few folks and writing almost 2,000 words on it, I'm still not exactly sure what the correct choice is. While there are certainly times where you just curve out one-two-three or draw the perfect removal spell at the right time, most of the time Magic is really really hard!
However, the important takeaway here is the process.
You're unlikely to ever be in the exact same scenario as this, but the important takeaway is to always be looking forward with your plays. No single play is made in a vacuum; you need to consider what effects your play will have over the next few turns of the game, and have the ability to look ahead and map out both how you want the game to look as well as how you expect your opponent's turns to go.
Oh, and as for the actual game, like I said I took the Fiery Impulse, and Nathan just found a second land, drew another Impulse, and was on a Cruise a turn later. It's tough to beat the champ!
