Whoa boy we've got a live one!
Pro Tours are always exciting. The idea of the best players in a game that millions play all converging at once place to crown a champion is awesome. Pro Tours coming alongside a new set release is also exciting, as you get to see the best in the world take their crack at a new and unexplored thing. But Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 is something else entirely thanks to what a Modern Horizons set does to the format.
Put mildly, this set is packed with powerful cards and stands to completely upend the Modern format, and Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 will be putting that all on full display as the best in the world seek to break the new cards and take down the title.
As you're reading this the Pro Tour has already started (thanks timezones), and I am playing alongside 250 other players for the title of champion. Of course as I'm writing this, I can only make educated guesses about how I think things are going to shape up, which of course means it's time for my Pro Tour predictions!
Prediction One: Boros Energy Will Have A Sub-50% Win Rate
While there's a lot of hype about Nadu, energy is perhaps the biggest thing about Modern Horizons 3 to be hitting the format.
There are a lot of good energy cards in Modern Horizons 3, to the point where the Boros energy deck almost looks like a MH3 Block Constructed deck. The deck plays out like a midrange deck, with Amped Raptor playing the role of Bloodbraid Elf while Galvanic Discharge headlines as one of the best removal spells in the entire format.
Add in new big mythics like Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury and Ajani, Nacatl Pariah // Ajani, Nacatl Avenger and you've got an impressive mix of removal and power to go along with just enough synergy.
There's only one problem - the deck just doesn't have any good matchups.
It lacks the tools or disruption to deal with combo decks like Nadu or Ruby Storm, while also being weak to decks interested in going over the top, and it isn't fast enough to pressure any of these decks it lacks a tactical advantage against. You don't build a deck in a vacuum, you build it relative to the metagame, and Boros Energy just doesn't make a lot of sense in current Modern.
As such, I think the deck will have a very poor showing at the Pro Tour.
Prediction Two: There Will Be At Least One Necrodominance Deck In Top 8
Necrodominance is quietly one of the most powerful cards in Modern Horizons 3.
Folks, this is in many ways just a better Necropotence, one of the most powerful engines of all time. Converting life into cards is one of the most powerful things you can do in the game, leading to huge swings where you draw a fistful of cards at once. And given all the excellent cards that Black already has like Grief and friends, there's quite the supporting cast.
However, that's not the ticket to greatness.
The ticket is free life gain at the cost of cards! Old bulk rare Soul Spike is now anything but, allowing you to turn those cards into both life and damage and allowing you to continue the Necrodominance train. March of Wretched Sorrow isn't completely free, but the fact that it is uncapped and can gain double digits with of life allows you to Necrodominance extremely aggressively.
Adding this sort of combo-esque potential to card draw in a deck that's already full of great cards and disruption is a recipe for success.
Prediction Three: There Will Be A Hall Of Fame Player In Top 8 Playing Storm
This one comes with a bit of inside info.
Two of the biggest legends of the game, Jon Finkel and Kai Budde, will both be playing in this Pro Tour, and are both playing Ruby Storm.
Storm is one of Magic's oldest and most classic combo decks, and got a huge boost in Modern Horizons 3 with both Ruby Medallion as well as Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy. Both are incredible enablers for the deck, making a ton of mana and providing the deck with the ability to go off as early as turn two (more often on turn three). The deck is fast, resilient, and also pretty good against the Nadu Combo deck.
Also these guys are still really good.
In my first game in the testing house against Jon Finkel, I was on the play and cast The One Ring on turn two, feeling pretty good about myself. Jon simply untapped and killed me on his turn two like it was nothing (bonus points if you can figure out how). They don't call them legends of the game for nothing!
With Luis Scott-Vargas also playing the deck on our team, and I'm sure at least a few other hall of famers jumping at the chance to play Storm again, one of them will be making the elimination rounds.
Prediction Four: There Will Be At Least One Surprise Deck In Top 8
With tons of talk about Nadu, Energy, and Storm, it's easy to forget how expansive of a format Modern is. There are roughly a trillion cards legal in Modern, and while Nadu and Shuko wasn't too hard to figure out there are a near infinite number of permutations of new and old cards coming together that could create some pretty exciting things. Do I know exactly what it's going to look like? Of course not! But I'm strongly expecting to be surprised at least once at Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3.
Prediction Five: Two Members Of Our Testing Team Will Make Top 8
There's obviously some overlap here with prediction three, but it's hard not to want to bet on this squad.
I always feel unbelievably fortunate to have the opportunity to work with Team CFB & Friends for these events, but when you take an already stacked lineup (and me too!) and add Kai Budde and Jon Finkel to the mix, you're just taking things to another level.
- Gabriel Nassif
- Edgar Magalhaes
- Luis Scott-Vargas
- Sam Pardee
- Jon Finkel
- Matt Costa
- Theo Jung
- Reid Duke
- Brent Vos
- Jim Davis
- Will Krueger
- Seth Manfield
- Arne Huschenbeth
- Kai Budde
- Ralph Levy
- Matt Sperling
Getting to play with such a murders row of players for a week leading up to the event is a dream and it's astounding to see so much talent under one roof. We didn't come to any sort of consensus on deck choice, but it's hard to bet against this group either way.
A Leap Of Faith
I'm certainly taking a shot this Pro Tour, playing a deck that nobody on my team is playing in Breach Eldrazi, and only time will tell if that's a good idea.
Look for the deck in next week's video and I'll go over it and my Pro Tour in next weeks article, which will hopefully be a winner's report!