Hello everyone. I'm Levi from The Thought Vessel, and I have a question for you. What do Blockbuster, Pontiac, and Toys "R" Us have in common? These are all companies that had massive success in their respective markets but have all fallen into bankruptcy. Blockbuster got clobbered by Netflix, Pontiac got cut by General Motors during the 2008 recession, and Toys "R" Us couldn't keep up with Amazon and faced a lower demand for physical toys. This is the brutal reality of the world of business: today a household name, tomorrow forgotten. We can see similar things happening in the world of gaming. With the commotion surrounding Hasbro, Wizards of the Coast, and Magic: The Gathering lately, it does pose the question, "Is Magic: The Gathering dying?" This week, we're going to look into that very question.

Now, "dying" can mean a lot of things as far as a collectible card game is concerned. Because of this, I'm going to stick to a simple definition: "rapidly decreasing in popularity to the point of putting the game in jeopardy." There are some red flags that fans point out when discussing this topic. Let's look at a few.

The first concern is with Hasbro. For those who might not know, Wizards of the Coast, which produces Magic: The Gathering, is owned by Hasbro. In recent years, Hasbro has not performed well as a company despite record sales numbers by Wizards of the Coast. Dealing with a lower demand for physical toys that ultimately sank Toys "R" Us, Hasbro's sales declined. When newly appointed CEO Chris Cocks took the position in February 2022, Hasbro shifted focus to becoming a smaller operation for long-term health, which included laying off over one thousand positions in the Wizards of the Coast side of the business. Naturally, this move has concerned many fans of the game, wondering how the production of the game would be affected by the dramatic reduction in staff.

The next concern is around the Universe Beyond sets. It all started in October 2020. Wizards began selling reprints with new art of Magic staples in a product called Secret Lair. This was a way to get reprints into the local market while also driving sales. It was mostly received positively until Wizards of the Coast produced a Secret Lair that had characters from the TV show, The Walking Dead. These cards had no Magic: The Gathering connection and were only available in an extremely limited run. To make matters worse, one of the cards, Rick, Steadfast Leader, proved to be an incredibly strong Magic card, making an impact in the human deck as commander as well as sixty-card eternal formats like Legacy. Despite the massive backlash to this product, like a prisoner's dilemma, it became the best-selling Secret Lair product to date. This set a dangerous precedent, as Wizards of the Coast saw the value and started making more and more Universes Beyond sets from Fortnite and Stranger Things to Fallout and The Lord of the Rings. The Lord of the Rings became the second-best-selling set for Wizards, only behind the extremely powerful Modern Horizons 2. The issue for players is that the game feels more and more like a giant advertisement for various video games, shows, and books, rather than focusing on MTG lore while also neglecting to move forward with the Magic Netflix TV series we were promised.

Finally, there is what I refer to as "the creep." The first part of the creep started in 2019 with War of the Spark and the elimination of the manufacturer's suggested retail price, or MSRP. This eliminated companies from honoring set prices on sealed products. For example, my co-host of my podcast, The Thought Vessel Show, wanted to buy a set of the Modern Horizons 3 Deluxe Commander Precons. He placed his order. When it was canceled, he had to go to another vendor, and the price of the sealed and not-yet-released product had increased by $150. This is happening across the board. Many Magic: The Gathering players are feeling the heat from this. The increased prices, in addition to the sped-up frequency of releases, have left players worn out and straining to buy the products they used to be able to afford. If they can't or won't buy new cards, then the second part of the creep comes into play: "power creep." Magic: The Gathering is a game of complexity. With this complexity comes new ideas, some of which break the game in powerful ways. Over a long enough timeline, the addition of these broken powerful cards gradually shifts the average deck into a stronger power level, leaving behind players who don't change up their decks.

Now, to answer the question, "Is Magic: The Gathering dying?" I don't believe it is. Hasbro seems to be in a better place than it was, and with the addition of Universes Beyond and MTG Arena, we are getting newer players every day. This game has been around since 1993. In its 31 years of existence, it is not only encouraged but necessary to push the needle and see what you can do with cards and your game. There are some aspects of the game that I believe are, in fact, dying off, like vanilla creatures and a lore-focused release schedule. But these are calculated risks that Wizards is making to try and bring this beautiful game to places it has never been. Has Wizards of the Coast been perfect in their execution of sales, handling power creep, and card design? Absolutely not, and they would likely be the first to tell you that. The important thing is that we keep trying to push the boundaries of what is possible so that the game we all love can continue to grow and last for generations to come. The last thing any of us want is for Magic: The Gathering to become the next Blockbuster.

Until next time, thank you for reading!