What Are the Chances...

... That the best deck in Standard has no new cards?

Beloved apprentice Roman Fusco already spilled the beans, though I have a slightly different take:

Killer [Whale] Azorius | DSK Standard | Michael Flores

• Creatures (4)
• 4 Horned Loch-Whale

• Instants (23)
• 1 Farsight Ritual
• 2 Deduce
• 4 Elspeth's Smite
• 4 No More Lies
• 4 Not on My Watch
• 4 Spellgyre
• 4 Three Steps Ahead

• Sorceries (4)
• 4 Sunfall

• Enchantments (3)
• 3 Temporary Lockdown

• Lands (26)
• 4 Plains
• 3 Island
• 2 Adarkar Wastes
• 2 Fountainport
• 3 Meticulous Archive
• 4 Demolition Field
• 4 Restless Anchorage
• 4 Seachrome Coast

• Sideboard (15)
• 4 Kutzil's Flanker
• 3 Change the Equation
• 1 Negate
• 1 Temporary Lockdown
• 4 Jace, the Perfected Mind
• 2 Boon-Bringer Valkyrie

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The core redundancy here is:

4 Elspeth's Smite

4 Not on My Watch

4 Horned Loch-Whale (or more importantly, Lagoon Breach)

These cards all mess up attacking creatures, but more importantly, don't let the opponent take advantage of the "death" triggers on Heartfire Hero, Cacophony Scamp, or certain buff cards; like Turn Inside Out or Felonious Rage.

These cards also give you a little extra percentage against reanimation strategies that feast on having key threats in the graveyard (rather than in exile or back in the library)... But they're not the original inspiration for such a twelve-pack.

I previously had some success with Elspeth's Smite and Horned Loch-Whale in smaller numbers, even winning a $2,000 RCQ with a version Roman designed... But this is a new build for a new world. It's exploitative of a format where decks are fast and powerful... But inflexible; and where people have a ton of buff cards that make their creatures bigger... But don't pump much toughness. Hence Elspeth's Smite can be an effective source of defense even through a Leyline of Reverberation.

While Roman is right that the deck idea was mostly a reaction to the hyper aggression of Red Decks in Best-of-One, I think it translates to regular Magic just fine if you want to play it at the LGS. The sideboard is mostly there to smooth out your bad cards in matchups where you don't necessarily want 100 Elspeth's Smites.

4 Kutzil's Flanker - This card is actually aces in Standard right now because of all the combo reanimation (especially Rite of the Moth Orzhov). It's also sneakily good against the aggressive deck as a siiiiick response to Helping Hand or Recommission.

3 Change the Equation - This is a weird sort of "Negate" for me. I wanted a "Negate" but I specifically wanted a Negate that would give me another card to respond to Urabrask's Forge if I were going second (i.e. most universes where I had won Game 1) but also more ammunition against Squirming Emergence, which can sometimes be fast and sometimes hit you on a double-spell turn. Obviously, this is just another card you can bring in against Mono-Red and its variations also (that can also counter Snakeskin Veil if they're into that), because you need to have fast answers to a variety of angles of attack, and Sunfall will often just get you killed.

1 Negate - This is also a Negate.

1 Temporary Lockdown - Because this card is better than Sunfall a lot of the time; and an eighth copy is welcome a lot of the time also; for example against itty bitty bunny wabbits.

4 Jace, the Perfected Mind - You need to left-turn pretty hard into fellow Control decks. You have kind of a lot of terrible cards for the mirror; but some of them have text if you're crafty. Like against people stockpiling Fish, Treasures, Maps, maybe Mites... You get some value out of Temporary Lockdown. I'm currently not sure if I'd rather Change the Equation a Deduce (or catch some other cheapie during a Counterspell fight) or just Elspeth's Smite a random late-game Restless Anchorage.

2 Boon-Bringer Valkyrie - This economy brings you all kinds of options for gaining life and maybe being a giant monster. Boon-Bringer Valkyrie is highly synergistic with Three Steps Ahead AND is more of a trump to Urabrask's Forge than Dust Animus so gets the nod here.

Sadly, still zero new cards in the sideboard :(

Sorry House of Horror!

I've played a ton of this deck the last couple of weeks; mostly in Standard Events. In fact, I went 21-2 in in my first three, which is the genesis of the question that titles this article.

This is a quickie report on my first go-round.

1. Mono-Black

"Is Deep-Cavern Bat good against ?"

-Rebell

"I haven't come close to losing to a Deep-Cavern Bat deck, but boy did they try."

-YT

One of the things that I was a little afraid of playing this deck is that I was over-prepared for Mono-Red... Potentially giving up percentage in other matchups. It turns out that that is probably true, but there is still plenty of fuel in the tank.

My opponent here had cards like Deep-Cavern Bat and Bandit's Talent... a.k.a. cards that all disappear to a single Temporary Lockdown; and in a color that doesn't do a great job of removing enchantments.

It was annoying long-term that the deck does kind of take forever to win, so the opponent does in fact have time to yield up the mana to Go for the Throat your Whale through Ward. They can't really keep pace with Fountainport AND all the card drawing though.

Easy win. Ponderous maybe, but easy win. Once they don't kill your Whale (or you can protect your Whale through one turn cycle) it tends to close the game out pretty quickly.

1-0

2. Mono-Red

They started on Leyline of Reverberation.

I introduced them to all my instants. Nothing super epic here. Just them eating two-for-one a bunch of times until concession.

The one thing that I would say about this matchup is that, no matter how well prepared you think you are... You can still lose it. This is increasingly the case as Red Decks shift toward the green splash for Snakeskin Veil, et al.

I'd say try to avoid playing Temporary Lockdown until you have four mana (i.e. backup Elspeth's Smite) but obviously you can't always pick and choose.

2-0

3. Mono-White New Cards

That's a cute Enduring Innocence you've got there...

I bet you thought it'd be safe against removal. Well Elspeth's Smite (while originally intended to hinder Heartfire Hero) also kind of annihilates people getting cute with 3/3s that are supposed to, ahem, endure.

This deck was all Carrot Cake, Caretaker's Talent... And The Wandering Rescuer?

I actually misclicked against The Wandering Rescuer and played actual Horned Loch-Whale instead of Lagoon Breach when it was coming to double strike me. This was comically awful for all the reasons you're imagining; but at least it taught me never to make that particular mis-click again.

I got my Whale killed for value (boo-urns) and was basically down a card while I had to deal with the opponent's battlefield.

But then I drew Farsight Ritual into Three Steps Ahead into Spellgyre and the opponent's head blew up as they fathomed the difference between a mono-white and a Control deck in Standard.

3-0

4. Boros Token Control

This was a super interesting match because my opponent didn't do anything and I played with a similar level of discipline of doing basically nothing for eight turns. The game only went the way that it did because we both drew enough lands to not have to get jumpy.

For my opponent's part, they drew double Fountainport (but Mirrex not until later).

This put me under a ton of pressure even though they chose never to do anything but make Fish for a looooong time. I had to get maybe two Fish a couple of times with Temporary Lockdown, which kept me alive but obviously didn't feel good. Eventually I drew into Desolation Field to stabilize the opponent's ability to put on pressure... But at the point of the second Desolation Field I was already on one. One!

So basically, I'm dead if they draw Lightning Helix.

On the last turn I played Horned Loch-Whale MAIN PHASE just to block if need be. They went for Sunfall (which would have provided a lethal token) but my desperation sac via Fountainport revealed THREE STEPS AHEAD. They had one more swing: Activating Mirrex to trigger Caretaker's Talent... But it did not reveal the lethal Lightning Helix. Mirrex tokens don't block.

Super exciting game that was made all the better because Heroes won.

4-0

5. Selesnya Rabbits

Heroes kept four White removal cards, two Seachrome Coasts, and a Meticulous Archive. Because hey, Standard.

I ran out first turn Meticulous Archive on the play and saw Temporary Lockdown. Given my four removal cards, the poor Temporary Lockdown went to the graveyard.

So of course, the opponent started off on Valley Mightcaller. Argh!

I managed the first two attackers but mostly got there because I topdecked land number five (untapped) for a Sunfall on curve. That put seven - count 'em seven - counters on my Incubator.

They topdecked three straight spells, but are already in The Abyss as a result of my 7/7 Sunfall token attacking every turn. Rabbit-Mage went Hail Mary Knight-Captain... but Restless Anchorage flew over to close the game out.

I probably would have been a little salty from the other side of the table. They "did" a lot of "stuff" that their deck is supposed to do! Counters from Hop to It... Multiple Convokes for double draw... I mostly won just because I hit that fifth land, which took down a ton of creatures and cardboard material.

5-0

6. Mono-Red

They beat me up to start, but I stabilized, per prescription. "Stabilized" at three.

They do nothing for a while.

I do nothing.

We stare at each other. Meanwhile I'm accumulating Three Steps Ahead.

They open on Heartfire Hero. I have six mana (and an Elspeth's Smite in hand) so I send a Three Steps Ahead at the 1/1 and draw a card.

The follow up is Slick-Shot Showoff. I immediately realize I've just lost.

Rather than attacking into my Elspeth's Smite, they Burn Together, get the +2//+0 buff, and exactsies me to nil. EXPLODING CAR.

Aaron shared with us that in motorsports it's said the ideal race car crosses the finish line and explodes - a perfect analogy for the burn deck.

Mike wins this game with Aaron at exactly zero, no hand, no lands and an overload on the stack targeting his last permanent. https://t.co/P7uhqE0rgn

— Lanny (@LannynynyMTG) September 22, 2024

Totally winnable game; but interesting and I learned something. Now you've learned something. Very well played by the opponent.

5-1

7. Mono-Red Again

SUPER interesting game where we both eventually have seven cards in hand and just stare at each other.

We're both on seven, but I'm unsurprisingly up on lands.

At some point my hand is three No More Lies and four Three Steps Ahead!

Theoretically I'm in an ironclad position, but I just need to get cards out of my hand or I'll stagnate and lose to multiple cheap spells. So I start "cycling" my Counterspells and I proceed in making Fish just so they have to act first. A moral victory reveals itself when they're forced to Shock a Fish.

At this point I'm discarding literal Temporary Lockdown because I've got Fish and Treasures.

Eventually they blink first. It's a Monastery Swiftspear and a Slick-Shot Showoff and a TON of Monstrous Rages... But I have double Elspeth's Smite and have retained most of the Counterspells.

An old boss once told me that "Making money is boring, making lots of money is really boring." When this deck is operating the way it's supposed to... The games are not exciting. Exciting happens when something is going wrong!

6-1

8. Boros Auras

A couple of years ago I wasn't working full-time; so I was playing kind of a lot of Arena.

I was also watching a lot of CovertGoBlue at the time. I mean I still watch a lot of CovertGoBlue; but the difference was like what if I do this full time like CGB does? I would narrate games in my head as I played them out. Occasionally there would be a really great game and I'd kick myself that I wasn't streaming.

Of course, you can't pick when you get a game like that. So I guess the solution is to just tape all your games and by definition you keep all the insane ones.

Well... I didn't tape this one but it was one of the coolest games I've ever played.

My opponent opened up on the early game stuff. Heartfire Hero; Manifold Mouse; Ethereal Armor.

I did what I'm supposed to do: Temporary Lockdown.

Remember last week when I said Sheltered by Ghosts might be the best card in the new set?

Well Sheltered by Ghosts doesn't only hit creatures. It hits, well among other things, Temporary Lockdown.

Oh no!

That thing has Ward 2 now.

It's getting bigger and bigger.

Manifold Mouse is back. Double strike is coming!

Punch line: If you kill the creature wearing Sheltered by Ghosts, Sheltered by Ghosts goes to the graveyard... and Temporary Lockdown comes back.

Anyway, before the bitterest possible end, Horned Loch-Whale took out a Heartfire Hero wearing maybe the best card in the new set, which resulted in one card coming back... And a lot of other cards going away all at once.

Wild.

Wish you were there!

7-1 and the Play-In Point!

Let's come back to the question that opened up this article.

What are the chances...

The chances are actually pretty slim, because my deck doesn't have Floodfarm Verge... yet.

Floodfarm Verge is mostly better than a Plains in this deck (though I would not go to zero, as a result of having 4 Desolation Fields).

But spells-wise?

Couldn't be happier.

Try it!

LOVE

MIKE