Spoiling the Approach

Posted on January 16, 2015

Since the dawn of this series a few months ago, I have known there would come a time when I would once again have to battle the spoilers. While I love looking down the spoilers as they are revealed to grasp at what new mechanics and ideas the new set may hold, it can sometimes become a tedious and fairly boring read when I cover the issue from a financial approach. On top of the already-impeding obstacles, I also have to combat the fact that I was not an active Standard player, meaning most of my information came from exclusively Top 8 lists and the few primers I could find time to read.

Though there were certainly a number of issues, I still managed to pull something together with each new set and had found a bit of a rhythm. The problem is that the rhythm sucked—seriously, no one wants to have a list of rares with some speculative prices that may or may not have already changed by time the set comes out.

With this new series, I realized I not only have a better grasp on Standard, I also have a strong way to begin my approach on the spoilers—a focus of sorts. That being said, I am going to see how this one works and take any feedback you may have to better this process in the future. I am going to split this into two categories both so I can really determine the validity of a particular card in the current Standard and so I can determine what the card may spell moving forward. This week, I am going to cover any cards that may slot well into existing archetypes while saving next week to discuss any new cards that may develop a new archetype—or potentially boost a deck that is currently fringe-playable.

Covering the cards that will be good out of the gate allows you a chance to snag them at the prerelease and trade them out quickly, as they will have immediate demand. Waiting a week to cover the blossoming archetypes gives us time to wait for the initial hype to settle as we look into picking up cards we may need down the road.

After this weekend, the final time I will be able to play Khans of Tarkir and W/U Heroic, I will probably be shelving the deck and looking at something new moving forward. I ended on a bit of a high note, as I Top 8’d the Pro Tour Qualifier/10k held by Comic Town in Columbus, Ohio this past weekend. I lost in the mirror match in the first round of the Top 8 but was overall happy with both the deck and my personal performance. I will be doing a write-up in the coming week after the prerelease, and I will put a link up in the future for anyone interested. Long story short, I played Abzan Aggro six of my eight rounds, which is not a great match, and I managed to claw my way there.

Moving forward, I have a few decks in mind I want to test, but I will save that for the coming weeks. We are all here to talk about the new cards, after all, so let’s jump right to it.

Fate Reforged

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon — This card will be appearing both this week and next, as it will already slot into a few decks and probably also spawn at least one new archetype just on its own. I was not as sold as everyone else was on this card, but the reality is this is the biggest, baddest thing you can be doing in Standard, and it will be easily castable given how slow the current metagame can be. One deck I see this fitting into are Mono-Green—perhaps not in large quantities, but on turn four or five, this card can do a great deal of work to finish the game quickly. I also expect U/B control and probably some of the more midrange and late-game Abzan shells to pick up a few copies. As much as I feel this card is overpriced out of the gate, that is the tax Planeswalkers add, and if you want to be playing this one, it might just be best to pony up the cash now. I believe it will take a while for the price to settle given how much demand there is from every angle, both casual and competitive.

Monastery Mentor — So as everyone I am sure is aware, this card is absurd. Of all of the cards to print in a format that already has Goblin Rabblemaster, this one seems to be Wizards of the Coast’s way of showing us it can become even better. While not necessarily a one-man army like the Rabblemaster, it also does not have to send the tokens to their likely demise every turn, and get this: You can make tokens at instant speed . . . and more than one a turn . . . and they grow bigger. Seriously, who decided this card was okay? Needless to say, any Jeskai deck that isn’t at least testing this card is crazy, and I am sure there are some Abzan decks that may also want to snag a few. I know he will probably fill out the top end of the curve in W/U Heroic as a one- or two-of in my list. Cantripping into a late-game army is a win condition in itself. Expect this card’s price to hold steady for a while, at least until people are done brewing and have finally settled on the fact that he is, in fact, beatable. I believe, if anything, this card has a chance to spike in the short term just given how many people want them out of the gate—including me.

Soulfire Grand Master — I am not as sold on this card as most are. It certainly can do some pretty neat tricks, including locking your opponent out of a game in Modern for the low cost of 9 mana and keeping a fragile 2/2 alive. Sarcasm aside, it will probably see some play in burn-heavy Jeskai decks, as you can recycle cards in the late game, such as Stoke the Flames, to finish off your opponent. The only decks I really see in which this is a strict upgrade would be the classic Jeskai, in which deck you had a much lower number of creatures with utility, such as Mantis Rider and Stormbreath Dragon—cards that allow you to use your burn a little more aggressively on creatures, knowing you can rebuy the few you have left in the late game. The fact that it even has to fight with Seeker of the Way means it is probably already overhyped. I don’t doubt the card is good—and very flashy if nothing else—though I do doubt that it will see enough play so hold strong at the presale price.

Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest — I really am mostly mentioning this card because I feel bad for how few blue cards there are that seem playable in the current environment. I hope I will have something more for everyone’s favorite color next week. This card may be playable in Heroic—if Heroic survives the new set of course—but even then, it is probably a one-of and may still be rotated out for Monastery Mentor. There are certainly plays you would not otherwise be able to make without this card, and I am excited to see what it can do, but considering how small of a blip it will be on most people’s radars, I cannot see any upward price movement.

Crux of Fate — Clearly, U/B Control will be looking long and hard at this card—but probably not as the four-of most expect. Everyone I have talked to seems to think that Perilous Vault will still probably get the nod as the primary Wrath effect, though this will certainly show up to supplement the count. I imagine we will see the deck settle on a two-of in the main, with at least one more in the board. Given that Abzan has no Dragons, I cannot see them justifying this card over End Hostilities unless they were having issues with the double-white. I expect this to clearly show up in a number of existing boards, Mardu perhaps, but similar to End Hostilities, I cannot really see any pressure on the price.

Soulflayer — Another card that will be coming up twice, I expect some great things from Soulflayer. We already have a few shells he may be able to slip into—both Abzan and Sultai—but I cannot imagine we will not see a few more pop up soon enough. Chromanticore, I still have hopes for you, buddy! Currently, the biggest push for this card has to be the ease of hexproof, with Sylvan Caryatids showing up in both lists. Beyond that, trample and flying are relatively easy, meaning he can certainly show up as an efficient, hard-to-deal-with, early-game threat—or else a late-game finisher with a laundry list of abilities. Being only a rare, I do not know that the price will move up much, but given how many people are looking to brew with this card moving forward, I can only imagine what it may do if we see some new, crazy deck ideas in the first few weeks with this as one of the focus points.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang — I am not sold here, but I also have not been playing much control this season. I can see the applications in Abzan and Sultai, but I believe if we see this shine anywhere outside of a one- or two-of in boards, it will probably be from something new. It is worth mentioning for this week, as players looking to stay on the Abzan train may be looking for these, and it would be a good idea to at least pick up a few. It seems that the price now could hold for the short term, but I would be looking to move these quickly.

Red and green just doesn’t have much going for them to support existing tier-one lists. I have to believe this will be an extremely different story going into next week, as I hope some of the more exciting cards are going to be bringing Temur and Mono-Red back to the forefront of Standard and creating a few new archetypes to work with. I understand that Temur is already an existing archetype, but because of how few results it has been putting up, I would consider the deck more of a reemergence moving forward.

The one card I feel obligated to cover in green is Warden of the First Tree. Maybe I am wrong here, but this card seems miserable to me. If I am playing 3/3s, I don’t want to tap out for two turns to do so, certainly not in a deck with half of its lands coming into play tapped already. Perhaps Abzan Aggro wants this; perhaps people have never actually played that deck and have no idea . . . I guess only time will tell. All I can truly say to the power level of this card is that I really hope more people are playing this so I can help them waste their turns pumping it only to still die to the same forty-seven removal spells that kill everything else—you know, the other cards in the deck that don’t have echo costs. Nonetheless, this card will see play as people attempt to test it in the first few weeks. I guess I will have to eat my words later on if this is still gracing Top 8 lists in a few months, but I feel safe with my stance.

Well, on that delightful note, I will walk away for the week. I am truly stoked to have the whole weekend free for once—I plan on getting my prerelease fix a few times over and coming back with the scoop on what people are brewing with. If you feel I missed any cards that slot into preexisting decks, let me know. Next week should be a good time, as we pull our brewers caps out and start looking at the format moving forward from a fresh perspective.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand