The Modern of Old

Posted on January 29, 2015

All right, we’re fresh off the prerelease and release weekends, and we come crashing into the biggest event of the season, the Pro Tour. Normally, this is a chance to see exactly where Standard is moving; this season, we have a bit of a different story to tell. Due to popular demand, the Modern Pro Tour is right around the corner. We have already seen Siege Rhino find his way into the format among a few other Khans of Tarkir cards, but with the bannings, it is unlikely that anything from the new block will be set to completely dominate the Pro Tour. On top of the Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise bans, we also lost what is probably the pillar of the format in the form of Birthing Pod.

This week, we are going to be taking a look at some decks that are not exactly out to reinvent the wheel; instead, these are decks that may have fallen out of favor due to either Treasure Cruise or Birthing Pod. I believe this Pro Tour is going to have a number of financial implications, and that is why I am starting a week early—it is always best to get in on anything you are looking to play before the Pro Tour, as it is unlikely anything will tank immediately after anyway.

The first deck I want to cover this week is one that my Brainstorm Brewery co-host Corbin Hosler has been championing for years: Merfolk. Fish has always been a tier-two or tier-three strategy in both Modern and Legacy since their inceptions, so it is of course no surprise that, when a format takes a big step back in terms of power level, we look to some of these less respected, yet consistent, decks for answers.

Fish ? Modern | Ryan Bushard

This may not be the ideal list or build, but generally, the shell comes with the usual package of lords, Aether Vials, and Kira, Great Glass-Spinner as the cards to watch for value. We could also finally see a spike in Mutavault if this or some other strategy able to champion a play set does well enough. This price has been stagnant since rotation, and that will not last.

Kira and Aether Vial are probably my next pick-ups from this list, as both have a great deal of upside and potential for play in both Modern and Legacy. It is always important to remember when looking at lists that it does not matter if a card is a four-of if it is pigeonholed into only one deck. Lord of Atlantis will probably see a small increase if a deck similar to this one managed a Top 8 next weekend, but the spike would probably be short-term and equipped with a fairly low ceiling considering the reprints.

Kira and Vial, though reprinted, are just as vital to this strategy and much more versatile—after all, lords are a dime a dozen for Merfolk now, which is another strike against the Lord of Atlantis. If this looks like something you would be interested in building, it might be wise to get in on what you can now while the prices have not shifted. They may not make a large impact on the Pro Tour, but Merfolk is a fun deck and a great way to get yourself into Modern without having to invest in the daunting mana base.

Though there is clearly going to be a large number of B/G/x decks at the Pro Tour, there is not as much relevant about these decks as you might think. Sure, there is the chance that the archetype dominates half of the Top 8 and sees a small boost, but even then, the deck is already so expensive it would be difficult to predict what may go up. If this is an archetype you are looking to play but are unsure of what build to go with, I would suggest getting in on any staples you know you will want and then leave the rest until a certain list piques your interest. Unless something off the wall sees play next weekend, I don’t believe it will cost you more to get in on some cards after they rise slightly as it will to get in on cards you may never play. For this reason, I don’t know that a decklist is the best way to approach this archetype—instead, looking at the pillars of the archetype is probably best.

Tarmogoyf — Love him or hate him, he will be a staple until Wizards decides otherwise. The price tag on ol’ ’Goyf is already pretty high, and with a probable reprint again in Modern Masters (2015 Edition), it seems only logical to hold off until then if you can. As I have said before, though, if you are going to be able to play at least once a week with these cards, it may be okay to get them now knowing the reprint, if it happens, will hurt but the value you gain, whether monetary or not, before that point is worth the extra cost.

Liliana of the Veil — Clearly, 3-mana Planeswalkers will continue to be powerful, and Liliana has done the best job so far, showing us just how oppressive an early ’Walker can be. The upcoming promo is a drop in the ocean when you look at how many already exist. I would be surprised to see her drop much more unless she sees an early reprint, but even then, she may bounce right back—and if not immediately, she will certainly rise again in short order. I can see no issue with picking Liliana up now if you want to be playing anything base-black.

Knight of the Reliquary — I don’t want to focus too hard on this archetype, but there is one card I feel may be able to shine as a card-advantage engine now if B/G/w becomes the norm. Knight of the Reliquary will always have a place in my heart, and it crushes me to see her so low, and though she has begun the climb back from her valley, it is still extremely underwhelming considering how powerful the card can be. If she sees any play at all, this could easily double up overnight.

I am going to continue this next week, but before I go for this week, there is one other deck I want to cover as well as a quick aside into Standard. Though there is a great deal to talk about in regard to the new format, I am going to hold off on most of that until after the Pro Tour. I will be going a little deeper next week into both the new Sultai Control and Temur Ascendancy combo decks; I did not want you to think I was slacking in the Standard department, I just feel this information for Modern can impact you a great deal more than the quick rise and fall of a few fringe Standard cards. It is always best to give Standard a few weeks to cool off before we go in too deep.

While I am on the topic of Standard, I did want to announce a giveaway that was sparked from last week’s comments section as well as a few reader e-mails. Clearly, I am not super-in-tune with the Warrior-deck strategy in Standard, and I saw a number of people already brainstorming on what I was doing wrong. My request is that, in the comment section or through e-mail, you send me your ideal build of the deck and what exactly is the game plan against the metagame. I will test these out versus the gauntlet and through Magic Online and elect a winner that will then become my gauntlet Warriors deck to test against. I do not have a prize in mind yet, but it will be worth your time.

All right, well, with that quick aside, let’s go back to Modern before we wrap this week up. The other decks I want to talk about, though I am not a personal fan of them, are the Tron variants. Over the past few weeks of testing on Magic Online, I have played so many Tron decks that it seriously feels as though it comprises half of the meta some nights—and perhaps that is just my luck. I won’t complain, as it is a good matchup, but regardless, it is on most people’s radars. Unfortunately, Fate Reforged is not on Magic Online yet, so there is no real confirmation on the presence of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, but it is likely he will also make an appearance in at least some of the builds.

R/G Tron ? Modern | Andrew Elenbogen, Fifth?Eighth at Grand Prix Omaha 2015

Planeswalkers (4)
4 Karn Liberated

This is a fairly straightforward list, but I have seen a ton of variation online as well as the other build of Mono-Blue Tron. I am not sure these decks can thrive in the coming format, but people are certainly testing them. The problem with the financial end of this deck is that most cards are either dirt cheap or are already very expensive considering they do not see a ton of play outside of this archetype. The few cards I can see making a move on would be Sylvan Scrying, as that is increasingly difficult to find, and Wurmcoil Engine, as the recent reprint has completely tanked the price. This one may not move quite as quickly as some of the harder-to-find commons, but Wurmcoil Engine will rebound, and a few copies of this deck placing well could make that rebound fairly immediate.

That is all we have this week for the Modern breakdown. A strange thing this format has shaped up to be—it is like looking in a rearview mirror for answers moving forward. I will be extremely interested to see how the actual metagame shakes down, but I am hoping to have a few solids picks in before then. Next week, we will be continuing the Modern hype—until then, get those Warrior decks brewing, and if you have any questions or comments, please leave them below!

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand