Standard's Final Fate

Posted on February 13, 2015

Finally, the Pro Tour has come to a close, and we have a new champion for this quarter. That means for us that it is time to move back into the overshadowed world of Standard to see exactly where Fate Reforged has left us. I do want to say I was not as bored as I expected to be this past weekend watching coverage of the Pro Tour—there was a reasonable amount of variation, and Burn did pretty well. If I were going, that is what I would have piloted. There’s nothing too crazy to cover on that front this week, and since Standard has stagnated to a halt pre-Tour, it is time to go back on track this week with some theory-crafting.

A few weeks ago, I talked about some of the breakout decks and the new cards that were contained within. So far, Tasigur, the Golden Fang has been the major overachiever from the set in both play and price, but does anything else in the set have what it takes to get there?

The first thing I always look to do when theory-crafting a new format is to look at what decks already exist and how frequently we are likely to see those decks. This typically can be tied to what you hear people call the tier system. Tier-one decks are accepted as the pillars of the format—Abzan and Sultai midrange decks are prime examples of this, as they have relatively reasonable game against the field, and more than likely, they will have a few copies at the top tables. These are the decks you need to be able to beat—or at least make it to a point against them at which point play skill can take over. If you cannot beat one of the pillars of the format, it may be best to dedicate a number of cards from the ’board to the matchup or even hedge some depending on popularity and move a few to the main. The only time I feel comfortable conceding a matchup is if I know I am heavily favored against the rest of the tier-one decks—sometimes, you just hope to avoid them, and that is all you can do.

Tier-one-point-five tends to contain decks that are accepted as playable and that have reasonable chances to be near the top tables, but such a deck usually has a major flaw. Many of these decks are the ones that can beat most of the tier-one decks but that may suffer in one or two matchups, thus keeping them from consistently winning events. W/U Heroic is an example of a deck that fall into this category—it’s a linear strategy that can be answered fairly easily if your opponent is set to beat heavy agro, but it can otherwise dominate matches through tempo or protection. These tend to be the decks I gravitate toward, as they can still certainly spike a victory, and they usually have an element of skill that can be used to out play some of your worse matches. That being said, I knew near the end of the season that Abzan Aggro was a bad matchup—I managed to win a number of matches, but not for the reason you think. The main and final reason I tend to find my way into this camp is that these decks fly slightly under many people’s radars when testing, meaning they either do not test the match at all or assume that because they beat their buddies, who have never picked up the deck, that they are good. There is a huge advantage within this game to knowing what is in your opponent’s deck and exactly what you can do about it. Taking a deck at their tier and tweaking it means that any extra effort you put into the build will go relatively unnoticed until you play it, as people are probably unfamiliar. Knowing how to play your deck better than your opponent knows how to play against it is key.

Tier two is as low as I typically test against, as these decks usually have major flaws based on what is tier one at the time. Sometimes, these are decks that are just not friendly to the metagame—or else pick up too much splash hate from other decks that people are worried about. Standard has a bit of a hazy line with how often the meta continues to be shaken up, but I would put decks like Jeskai Ascendancy in this category. There may be a day when that deck spikes a tournament due to a shift in the meta, but for now, it is relatively left in check. I tend to watch this tier closely during these tumultuous times, as these are the decks most likely to gain a boost from a new set. Most tier-one decks have fairly tight lists, and adding anything, unless it is clear to begin with, can take a long time since people are not always seeking to fix something that is not broken.

With all of this in mind, I have been working on two decks that I feel can certainly be tuned into tier-one lists. These are still in the early stages, as I have been focusing recently on Modern, but I feel it is best to start evaluating anything I am working with now, as the last Pro Tour Qualifier I can attend is in two weeks. Right now, if I do not get one of these two lists tuned in time, I will be on Gerrard Fabiano’s Sultai Control list I posted last week, but I would like to be slightly more aggressive to the format if possible.

With States having just happened, we have a small window into the future, but nothing is set, and since most of the high-level pros would not have attended, it would be hard to peg what any team would be on or what new tech there is. R/W Midrange seems to be showing strength, and that was one deck I wanted to work on a few weeks ago just to have in the gauntlet, but my list is certainly different than what I am seeing—it’s perhaps currently positioned worse, but I have found myself wanting a splash. From there, I started playing with other cards that could be equally aggressive and brought myself to the current list I am on for aggro or midrange. After starting with R/W and then being Jeskai, I eventually ended up dropping white all together and looking at Temur. From there, I saw a number of lists that looked appealing, but they focused on green more than I wanted to. My list is far from what I saw show up this past week, but I like the direction overall.

Temur ? Fate Reforged Standard | Ryan Bushard

I noticed that a deck that took a similar role did well at a Premium Invitational Qualifier a few weeks ago, but this has a few key differences. I really wanted to be able to cast Goblin Rabblemaster on turn two because I feel that is one way to break this format open—it has already been explored, but this is another approach.

Frost Walker seems to be a strange pick, but it ties a lot of the other pieces together and allows for a turn when you can reanimate a few Phoenixes at worst. I was not exactly sure he would make the final cut, but here he is, still doing work. Sometimes, you just play one into a Rabblemaster and removal your way to victory. I am very curious to see where this deck goes, as I really feel that fate has more to offer once this archetype is further explored.

I think Surrak Dragonclaw is going to start picking up in play this season, and of course, that could easily skyrocket his price. Surrak and Savage Knuckleblade are way too cheap for how good they are in the right metagame, so if this archetype continues to show up in any form, expect an increase. These are super-safe for long term as well, as they have another year to live out their potential and have surely hit their floor.

I am less bullish on many of the other cards from Khans of Tarkir in general, as the format needs to pick up for prices to adjust, and we don’t have much information to go on now. Beyond agro, I am also working on a control shell, but I keep returning to Sultai Control. I really want to start with a U/B control shell and grow into a three-color deck, but perhaps outside of the conventional wedges of the block. This list needs a lot more work, but this is where I started.

U/B Control ? Fate Reforged Standard | Marcus Fitzgerald, Fourth Place, SCG Premier IQ

Creatures (1)
1 Pearl Lake Ancient

I am happy to see Thoughtseize moving into the board, as that is also the direction I have been leaning, but that leaves me at a loss for exactly what it is the evolution of this deck will be trying to do. I feel this format is far too aggressive to be completely reactive, so that is where I am as of now. I hope to have this puzzle solved soon enough.

I am really pumped to move forward with this format, and though I see W/U Heroic is still chugging along and putting up reasonable finishes, I am not sure that is where I want to be. I have a PTQ coming up in two weeks, so I hope that I will be working on exactly what I am going to play next week, and I’ll spend the time after testing. If you have anything interesting or innovative, ship it my way in the comments below or on Twitter. Next week, I hope to be continuing the theory-crafting with some added information.

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand