Hello awesome MTG fans! I wanted to take a moment to talk about how to determine the Top cards that debut with a new set. Since we have loads of new stuff with new content and not all of it are Standard legal first, like the two Modern legal sets or Commander only things coming out at quick clips. Given that fast stuff, how do you tell what are the best new cards for you and your friends to acquire? Since I do a few top tens for each set or Commander deck series like the 40 new cards in Commander Masters from the four Commander decks, I wanted to show you how I did it myself, and then break it down for you to figure it out. This will be looking with an emphasis on finding value for kitchen table play like Commander, Five Color, multiplayer, Type Four, Highlander and more, but there are lessons for Standard too here and there you could take away, but that won't be the focus.
Ready? Let's get this thing started!
The First Take
When a set has been debuted, I spend some time carefully reviewing the visual spoiler. I read every card. I create a brand new document in Word with that set's title. Then I copy an image from the visual spoiler of every card that impresses me. I typically do this one color at a time and give it a few minutes in between colors to reset myself with other things. Then after I copy over every card in the new set I leave my document for a full day. Then I head back after giving myself a day in between for things that aren't obvious or assumptions I may have made on my First Take where I misread a card. Now that my next take is done, I leave this stage.
Now that I have shown you "what" I've done, now let's take about my decision criteria.
An Established Standard
Since we are not (typically) in rotating formats like Standard, our format we love has an established standard for the best cards for a certain mechanic. Take Modern as a good example. What is the best burn spell for Modern, or casual things like Five Color with its 20 life formats?
Yup, it's the Bolt! This one-cost instant can shoot anything for three damage. That means that any burn spell ever printed must stand up to Lightning Bolt to get played. Compare this, to say, Shock. In a casual format where both are legal, who'd run Shock over the Bolt? No one. Now, some decks might want to supplement the Bolt with other burn to flesh out the removal or kill suite like Fireblast or Incinerate, but the Bolt is the standard by which all burn spells will be compared. When you look at a new set at a burn spell, how does it compare to the Bolt?
Let me give you a fun take on the Bolt from a set a long time ago, as well as another card with that same brand-new mechanic that I rated higher to show you this in action:
See how Magma Jet adds a mana to the low Shock and then tacks on Scry 2 in the set that debuted Scry? But the Justice was one more than the one-cost Crumble to destroy an artifact added scry 2, so I rated it higher when I reviewed my set since it was better than an established standard.
There are always going to be established standards to compare to. In counters it's Counterspell where legal. In prevention of combat damage it's not usually Fog which debuted it, since that's nothing else, but others based on your deck like two Fogs for one Moment's Peace. For mass removal it's Wrath of God or Damnation, and for targeted removal in one color it's Swords to Plowshares for White, Hero's Downfall in Black, Beast Within in Green, Chaos Warp in Red and Pongify in Blue. For card draw it's Harmonize in Green, Phyrexian Arena or Sign in Blood in Black or Fact or Fiction in Blue.
See how you need to know the established standards in order to properly evaluate new cards? This is also true for Standard too. For example, if the best counter is a three cost Cancel with no effect and they print a three cost with an ability like Dissolve, then you'll see that as an improvement.
When an Effect is New for that Color
Sometimes something is an established standard in the game of Magic, but new for a color or combination of color, like the aforementioned Harmonize in Green that colorshifted over Concentrate from Blue to Green due to the nature of that set. I mentioned in my set review for Planar Chaos for everyone to pick them up now while they are cheap since they will never be replaced. Another example was Pongify in Blue as targeted removal in that set, but later Blue got Rapid Hybridization and now that's a common Blue thing. When Damnation was first printed that was the first Wrath of God effect for Black although White had bunches like Rout or Akroma's Vengeance. Now it's a common effect for mass removal in Black. When a common ability moves to a new color, grab it.
Black used to be like Red against enchantments - it couldn't do anything against them. Then it was given Edicts to make them sacrifice enchantments, and then Feed the Swarm was printed letting you target and destroy them with an accompanying loss in life. See how powerful this was color shifting over a key ability to answer things?
Here, let me give you just printed example I included in my Doctor Who review:
Take the Commander Classic Strionic Resonator. You now have it color shifted to Blue and on a Commander so you can cast him from your Command Zone and it's with a version of partner so you can tag team with a Doctor. That made my first list!
The Vanilla Test
One key way to compare creatures to previous things is to consider their size of power and toughness compared to their casting cost. These days with how good creatures are, you typically need to be what I call "on curve" so have the same size as your casting cost for more pricey things like a four-mana 4/4 or a five-mana 5/5 or a one-mana 2/1. That way, you can swing and block in the red zone with the best of them. Now add in evergreen keywords like evasion in flying or haste to swing now or vigilance which is better in multiplayer since you can swing at an open player without opening yourself. Many creatures are already playable with just size and/or keywords... like say...
...this pair of beaters that were beloved at kitchen tables everywhere due to the right power/toughness and evergreen keywords.
Brand-New Stuff
Now, this is the rough stuff. How do you compare something that's brand new to the game? Well, the first thing is that you often don't have to, they often compare to established standards. I cheated with my Scry 2 example earlier to show you. That ability debuted into a brand-new set with it, but it was on established standards. And then, many times, these new abilities are similar to previous ones, here's a useful example:
Deep Analysis was printed as a four-mana sorcery to draw two, one more mana than normal (Divination), but with flashback to draw two more. When the jump-start keyword was printed, it seemed like a version of flashback. The instant Insight also costs four and draws you two, but with discard. This new ability compares to a previous standard. See how many things that debut are similar?
But some are just brand new. For example, back when Mindslaver debuted, I rated it highly since I felt it would be strong, but it was brand new, and no one knew. Equipment in Mirrodin? Planeswalkers in Lorwyn? How do you rate them? But those are rare.
When partner debuted in Commander Legends in heavy numbers, we had the two color options from the Four Color Commander decks years ago to compare too, but how did you evaluate those when there was nothing similar? I just evaluated them as one option. We found out that they were massively powerful and are still among the most played Commanders years later. Once I knew what partner was like after playing with it, I could rate "Choose a background" ability from the Baldur's Gate set. Doctor's Companion was similar. We can do that since we have played with partner.
Often, our guess of misses are opportunities to learn. Here, let me show you one of my big misses of all time a card that didn't make any of my top card articles from that set which was amazing in all of my formats:
The Nim Deathmantle itself! This thing is a Commander Classic with more than 28k decks running it (according to EDHREC.com) and it played out so much better than I would have hoped in Commander, Five Color, Type Four, and Cube. It's just a powerhouse that I missed and that's okay, you learn from it! You get better with these things over time!
And there we are! That's my quick "How To" to rate new cards coming from the fast-releasing new sets and Commander deck products that debut with new cards. I hope you enjoyed it!