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Main » Articles » The Waning Moon

The Waning Moon

Alex Ullman
Posted on October 11, 2016
 Reddit

The sun of Kaladesh has risen, signaling the end of Eldritch Moon season. I enjoy taking this time to take a look back at the previous season in order to understand how to best prepare for the new cards and potential strategies. If you’ve been following this column for a few weeks you will likely understand that I believe Peregrine Drake to be a problem card in Pauper. That’s only part of the story and I hope this article fills in the details.

With that in mind, let’s start with the most popular deck from Eldritch Moon season:

1. Izzet Drake; 17.17%

U/R Drake ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, Borzoi, October 4, 2016

Eldritch Moon season lasted just over 9 weeks on Magic Online. There was barely a moment when Izzet Drake was not a factor. The U/R color combination is already stacked to the brim with powerful spells that interact favorably with the format. Counterspell, Lightning Bolt, Firebolt, and Mulldrifter are all top flight cards. The problem with U/R control decks in the past is that they lacked a way to close out games. Players tried Stormbound Geist, Delver of Secrets, Beetleback Chief and others all in the name of dealing the final points of damage. Nothing stuck.

The Peregrine Drake cycle — Drake, Ghostly Flicker, then either Archaeomancer or Mnemonic Wall — give the potent color combination a true endgame. With access to nigh infinite mana the deck can easily dump every threat is has drawn and then use extra iterations of the combo to continue to draw cards OR start aiming Lightning Bolt at the opponent’s head. The five-mana cost of Drake is a benefit here as it allows more lands to untap, making it easier and less time consuming to click through the combo.

The presence of this endgame has made it more challenging for slower decks to complete. The ability to commit multiple threats to the board on turn five while also drawing cards — Drake into Mulldrifter is common — has pushed midrange control decks out of the format (as we will see later). Attacking Izzet Drake is an effort to overload their ability to defend the combo. While not needed to win it takes far longer to do so without access to unbound mana and cards. Stopping Ghostly Flicker is paramount and exiling it is preferred. Similarly stopping Peregrine Drake from hitting the board can go a long way buying time to achieve victory.

2. Delver; 12.73%

Delver ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, Muril0Ambra, September 27, 2016

Delver never left. Taking a step back in the standings due to Drake the aggressive Blue deck continues to put up good numbers. Delver seeks to establish an offensive threat early and back it up with strong countermagic. Delver of Secrets is ideal but setting up a turn one Faerie Miscreant with Spellstutter Sprite backup is far from terrible. Spire Golem can hit the board on turn three or four and the entire evasive team can be a Ninja of the Deep Hours in hiding, waiting to draw more cards.

The spell suite is also powerful. Counterspell, Ponder, Preordain, Vapor Snag and more all work together to keep Delver ahead in the game. While the deck is powerful it often runs multiple cards that are just good at drawing cards which can leave it potentially sputtering out. Gush has become a more common inclusion as a way to get up on raw cards which can then be used to find tempo plays (like Snag) or more flying threats.

Delver is not going anywhere any time soon. If anything it may become more aggressive as there have been some versions eschewing Spire Golem for Phantasmal Bear in recent weeks, seeking to deal ever more damage on the first few turns.

3. Affinity; 11.11%

Affinity ? Pauper | 5-0 Pauper League, zwrench, October 4, 2016

Affinity spent much of the season jockeying with Stompy for third place. The machine menace won out with a strong final week and edged the Green beatdown deck by a fifth of a percentage point. The ability to reduce the mana cost of spells seems to be a hallmark of the very best decks in Pauper as Drake and Delver both attempt to circumvent the traditional cost system. Affinity is no different using the namesake mechanic to power out Myr Enforcers and cheap 4/4s in Carapace Forgers. Affinity can either go the traditional beatdown route with these massive creatures and Galvanic Blast or attempt a combo kill with Atog and Fling. The ability to approach the game from two completely different angles of attack that both have the same goal — zero life — gives Affinity a robust game plan.

Affinity may be the second best deck in Pauper but has numerous natural checks. Gorilla Shaman is a card that can single handedly take down an Affinity deck by taking out the deck’s mana base. In fact, I think the mere existence of Gorilla Shaman is the main reason that Affinity has not suffered more bans. Beyond Shaman there are numerous cheap answers including Fragmentize and Natural State with Ingot Chewer also acting as 1 mana Stone Rains. Ancient Grudge and Dust to Dust are more expensive ways to take out key elements but they get the job done. And yet, Affinity still accounted for more than 10% of the undefeated field. Maybe Fragmentize helps take it down a notch, but I’m unsure it will do enough to knock Affinity out of a top 5 slot.

Affinity ended Oath of the Gatewatch season at 8.75% of the undefeated metagame and closed out Shadows over Innistrad at 6.88%. In both of these seasons there was no strong combo endgame. Instead decks could take the early turns to handle the threats Affinity presented and set up an appropriate defense. While neither deck would present an overwhelming matchup both Jeskai Midrange and Mono-Black Control had enough removal to stall board development until attempting to turn the corner and take over the game. These decks have been pushed out of the landscape by Peregrine Drake decks. As such Affinity has had a chance to thrive.

4. Stompy; 10.91%

Stompy ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper league, Heagyth, September 27, 2016

People love to attack with Green creatures. Stompy has had a resurgence in recent months. Down from the 15.59% of Shadows over Innistrad and up from the 5.28% of Eternal Masters, Stompy is settling into a routine of finishing right behind Delver. The core strategy of the deck remains largely unchanged — play lots of good 1-drops and suit them up with Rancor and pump spells. What has changed, however, is how those spells are used to end the game. Perhaps it is because of this flexibility that Stompy should be considered an all-time great.

Stompy used to occupy a Fish slot in the metagame. It would establish a threat and make it rather angry. After that it would use cards like Gather Courage and Vines of Vastwood to protect the threat while getting in for damage. Eventually a Shinen of Life's Roar would hit the board and the final points of damage would be dealt.

The introduction of Young Wolf gave Stompy a way to fight cheap removal and Chainer's Edict effects. Hunger of the Howlpack made removal an actively bad plan as it could turn any small creature into an absolute monster. The consequence of these changes is that Stompy start to use its pump spells as Fireblasts and with access to a potential 12 in the main deck (Hunger of the Howlpack, Vines of Vastwood, and Groundswell) made it very easily for the Green player to end the game quickly. The fact that a well timed Vines of Vastwood can also stall Drake combo for a turn (by targeting the opposing creature) has transformed the deck.

Like Affinity, Stompy gets worse when there are better midrange decks in the format. Cards like Journey to Nowhere can do a lot of work in slowing the assault. When decks that can leverage that card are absent it becomes far easier to establishing an early overwhelming boardstate.

5. Hexproof; 7.07%

Hexproof ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, lucianoguma, October4, 2016

The other Rancor deck, Hexproof wants to present a massive unsolvable threat. Putting Rancor and Ethereal Armor on a Slippery Bogle can stack the damage on early and with Ancestral Mask in the mix it can often end the game by turn four. Normally Hexproof is a fringe player thanks to the presence of Chainer's Edict and similar spells but, once again, decks that can effectively overload on removal have been absent from the metagame and as such it gave Hexproof some time to shine.

Except this number is misleading. For the first seven weeks of the season Hexproof averaged almost 4.6 undefeated decks per week. In the final two weeks of the season Hexproof managed just a single undefeated run. On September 15 the deck was 8.48% of the undefeated metagame and dropped down to its end point thanks to underwhelming results. The truth is that Hexproof is relatively easy to beat even without the help of Diabolic Edict. Serene Heart and Leave No Trace can absolutely wreck a board based on Auras. Hexproof also does a good job of losing to itself as many versions have eschewed untapped White sources in an effort to optimize the ability to curve out.

6. Dimir Delver; 6.67%

Dimir Delver ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, drpringles, October 4, 2016

The combination of Gurmag Angler and Delver of Secrets saw noticeable gains this season. Having never topped 5% of the undefeated metagame it surged up the standings to nearly 7% (if we round up). What has changed so that this deck could assert itself as a real metagame force?

Aside from, once again, the lack of removal heavy control decks, it is the combination of countermagic and Gurmag Angler that seems to have fueled Dimir Delver’s rise. Drake decks can go off as early as turn five but that does not mean they actively want to do so. Instead they will often wait until they can defend their endgame with sufficient countermagic. The pressure of Delver of Secrets and Gurmag Angler often compresses that clock. Izzet Drake also lacks the ability to trade one-for-one on an Angler once it hits the board. The aggressive game-plan, in concert with access to cards like Duress, means that Dimir Delver can apply pressure early and disrupt a game-plan long enough that under-costed 5/5s can take over.

7. Simic Drake Tron; 5.05%

Simic Drake Tron ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, kleuter, September 26, 2016

The other Drake deck in the top 10, Drake Tron is a pure combo deck powered by the UrzaTron with a defense of Moment's Peace and Tangle. The goal is not to aim a large Rolling Thunder or multiple Lightning Bolts at the adversary but rather to either win via damage or endlessly loop Compulsive Research or Capsize for the win. The abundance of mana afforded by the UrzaTron makes it easier to accomplish the combo before turn five but at the same time the deck can get choked on Blue and Green mana.

And the mana seems to be the main problem. Many players are attempting to attack Peregrine Drake decks by targeting the mana base. Stone Rain, Molten Rain, and Choking Sands are common sideboard inclusions with the idea that they can set the combo back quite a bit. The presence of Izzet Boilerworks and Simic Growth Chamber means that hitting one of these lands is a possibility which can buy at least one turn. My guess is that is not enough as Izzet and Simic Drake combined are still over one-fifth of the metagame, to say nothing of other fringe builds.

8. Izzet Blitz; 4.65%

Izzet Blitz ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper league, Hoopy_the_Hoop, October 4, 2016

Just like Hexproof, Izzet Blitz thrives in a metagame where Chainer's Edict is at a nadir. These decks want to chain together cheap spells to power up either a Kiln Fiend or a Nivix Cyclops and then go directly at a life total thanks to either Shadow Rift, Artful Dodge, or Temur Battle Rage. There is not much else to say about this deck. It consistently hovers around 5% of the metagame and has the ability to just win but also can struggle when it draws its cards out of order. As long as there will be cheap Red and Blue instants and sorceries printed, this deck will be flush with new options.

9. Burn; 4.44%

Burn ? Pauper | 5-0 Pauper League, FernandinhoMooca, September 25,2016

Thermo-Alchemist is a hell of a Magic card. While it turns on removal spells in opposing decks the lack of dedicated board control decks means that Thermo-Alchemist in Burn has been the right call for this season prior. The ability to give every spell extra damage for free cannot be understated. Thermo-Alchemist alone can shave a full turn off the clock. It is not hard to imagine setting up a turn one Rift Bolt with a turn two Alchemist. A land on turn three means that it is very likely the game is over due to a combination of Lava Spike, Lightning Bolt, and Fireblast.

Burn has gone from a deck that can easily deal 20 damage to one that can easily deal 25. All this means is that cards like Nourish and Feed the Clan have gotten that much better and are sure to be sideboard staples for the months to come. Even Black can run Grotesque Mutation to pull off a Lightning Helix to the dome.

10. Elves; 3.43%

Elves ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper League, theonepandalord, September 30, 2016

Elves’ spot on this list is somewhat misleading. It averaged around two 5-0 decks per week which places it at just above 3% for the season. Elves does a good job of flooding the board and can have explosive draws that win with giant Timberwatch Elf fueled beats but its lack of disruption puts Elves in a tough spot moving forward. It does not matter what the board looks like if Drake decks can simply go over the top with endless copies of Lightning Bolt.

It is important to keep in mind that this is just a rough estimate of the Pauper metagame. Given that Wizards only presents undefeated decks as data points it can be a challenge to extrapolate what is going on underneath the surface. By taking a longitudinal view it is possible to identify the trends on what will succeed, but not necessarily what is present at the start of every league run. However we can use this data to make informed decisions and right now it appears that Drake is at the top. The decks that do well are able to present an early threat and claim victory before the combo can be established. Kaladesh offers one card that might just deliver Pauper a way to attack Drake before it can take off.

Renegade Freighter

Renegade Freighter helps to solve many of the problems Pauper aggressive strategies have had in the past. Namely they allow these decks to convert late game top decks into immediate damage. The ability to give any random 2-power creature a pseudo-Predator's Strike with haste is massive as it can help end the game in short order. We’ve already seen at least one deck make use of the train as a way to upgrade rather unimpressive creatures in the midgame.

Black Beatdown ? Pauper| 5-0 Pauper league, The_zzz, October 7, 2016

Friend of the column Jason Sirichoke also has taken to the Freighter, running it to some degree of success in.Stompy.

Stompy ? Pauper| Proposed Pauper deck, Jason Sirichoke

As Pauper looks forward to Kaladesh it is clear that Peregrine Drake will continue to define the format. It does appear, though, that a new train is pulling into the station and may herald change. Whether the format slows down enough for midrange to return remains to be seen but since there’s a new five-power creature on the block something tells me things are just going to get faster.

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TAGS articles, strategy, metagame, constructed, analysis, deck list, pauper, alex ullman

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