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Main » Articles » Stop Playing Bad Modern Decks

Stop Playing Bad Modern Decks

Andrew Jessup
Posted on February 27, 2017
 Reddit

Death's Shadow
I hate to say I told you so . . . 

In all seriousness though, I appreciate that people have been giving me credit for the Death's Shadow deck, but I don’t have more of a claim to it than anyone else really. I found the list, tested it a bit, realized it was broken, tinkered with it, and then did well in my respective tournament. Josh-Utter Leyton, Sam Black, Gerry Thompson, and Matt Nass all did the exact same thing. And there are a handful of players online who have been doing the same thing for weeks. So while I don’t expect/want credit for the deck, what I do hope came out of the weekend is that people start to see the Modern format for what it is, and how I’ve always seen it; just plain broken.

The Modern metagame has always been perplexing to me. There are countless players who actively play the format, the format has been explored extensively, and large Modern tournaments occur on a semi-frequent basis, but despite all of this the format is so incredibly far from optimized. In almost every Modern tournament, at least half the field chooses to register a deck that’s significantly worse than the best deck in the format. It’s to the extent that the format almost feels fake to me. It has become so inbred there are countless decks that should be unplayable, but are able to exist because there are so many other suboptimal decks that continue to see play in large numbers.

From what I’ve observed, one of the biggest reasons the format has developed this way is players’ inability to detach themselves from their results. The logic behind “I win therefore my deck is good” may sound fine, but in reality it’s rather flawed. There are countless factors that could lead to an inflated win rate including; sample size, quality of pilot, quality of opponents, a stretch of beneficial variance, what matchups you played against, etc.. The list goes on and on. Often times understanding why a deck is winning or losing is far more important than the actual result.

The Good

So with all that being said, there are some decks I actually recommend. These decks are a combination of both powerful and well positioned, and I can’t endorse sleeving anything up that isn’t one of the following.

The first deck that gets my seal of approval shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Death?s Shadow ? Modern | Andrew Jessup

When I first wrote about this deck, I likened it to Infect in the sense that I knew I had the best deck in the tournament. But to be honest, I undersold it. It pains me to say it, but at least until the format adapts to the deck it’s better than Infect ever was. I still have over an 80% winrate after playing 100+ matches with the deck. I like to think I’m not too shabby of a player, but putting up numbers like this just shouldn’t be possible. You need to have a very good reason not to be playing this deck, and whatever reason you do come up with likely isn't good enough.

It’s hard for me to even justify continuing this list as I can’t in good conscience recommend playing a deck that isn’t Death's Shadow. But if you do have a legitimate reason to believe Death's Shadow isn’t the best positioned deck for your next tournament, there are a few other options that are a notch above the field.

Dredge ? Modern | Lee Shi Tian

Dredge was my pick for the 2nd best deck post AER, so it was definitely validating to see what I thought were the best two decks crush different GPs on the same weekend. I played against this deck a lot immediately following the bannings, and I was never unimpressed. It was apparent the deck was a bit less consistent without Golgari Grave-Troll, but it really only slowed down by a turn at most. There are still only a few decks that can actually race Dredge, especially with Infect all but gone, and the deck is still as difficult to interact with as it has ever been. The fact that it also no longer has a giant target on its head, at least for the immediate future, bodes well for it too. And lastly, Dredge’s most relevant merit is the fact that it’s one of the few decks that has anywhere close to a 50% matchup against Death's Shadow. I would still recommend adding some Vengeful Pharaohs to the sideboard to try and sure the matchup up though.

Lantern Control ? Modern | Oliver Oks

This is the recommendation I’m the least confident in, for I’ve never actually played the deck. I’ve thought that Lantern Control was one the best decks in the format for a while now though, and it’s something I’ve been meaning to get some reps in with. This deck also doesn’t seem very easy to pilot cold, so I’d definitely advocate that you start getting some reps in now too if you think it’s something you might be interested in. Lantern has game against everything as it has the ability to shred the opponent’s hand with discard spells, and then keep them off of anything relevant for the entire game. The main reason Lantern is one of the strongest decks in the format right now is that it might be the only deck in the format that has a favorable matchup against what I believe to be the best two decks, Death's Shadow and Dredge.

Abzan ? Modern | Butakov

I don’t know why you would be, but if you’re hellbent on playing fair Magic this is the only deck that doesn’t severely impair your ability to win a tournament while doing so. It’s not great, it’s not fancy, but it gets the job done; at least some of the time. With the addition of Fatal Push, Abzan has the best removal across the board and it lines up especially well against the main threats out of Death's Shadow. Unfortunately, Abzan’s good matchups don’t extend very far past here. You have the tools beat most decks, but with only 15 sideboard slots you have to pick your battles. If you could play 25 sideboard cards, Abzan would probably be the best deck in the format. But as long as you’re limited to 15, Abzan is exactly medium.

The Bad

These may not be the best decks, but they’re not quite deserving of being lumped in with the rest of the field. If you run into some good matchups and know your deck inside and out, the gap between these decks and the good decks is surmountable.

The first bad deck I’d like to touch on has been a fixture of the Modern metagame since the format's inception.

Affinity ? Modern | Chris Grimshaw

I covered Affinity a bit in the last article I talked about my Modern and despite a decent finish at GP Brisbane, my opinion on the deck hasn’t really improved. It’s difficult for me to admit because Affinity is on a short list for my favorite decks to play, but it’s just no longer the Modern powerhouse it once was. There are too many decks Affinity is inherently weak to, it’s no longer one of the most powerful things you can be doing, and I don’t foresee a time in the near future where players are going to start leaving Artifact hate at home. With all that being said, the deck still has access to some truly unbeatable draws and is a contender in pretty much every matchup.

Grixis Control ? Modern | Corey Burkhart

This is the worst deck that’s still playable in some capacity. The deck's matchups are very polarizing. You’re probably going to beat decks playing creatures, and you’re probably going to lose to decks that can over the top of you. But the reason I think this deck is borderline playable, is the fact that there’s a lot of room to leverage play skill, so you can mitigate how poor your bad matchups are to an extent. I would advise against registering this deck unless you’re extremely confident in your proficiency with the deck.

Ad Nauseam ? Modern | John Mcgregor

Goryo?s Vengeance ? Modern | Prads Pathirana

Amulet Titan ? Modern | Bobby Fortanely

I’m lumping these decks in together because they all occupy a pretty similar space in the metagame. They see fringe play, they’re certainly not the best choices if your goal is to win, but they’re all still really powerful decks. It’s possible that they’ve been sufficiently explored, but this likely isn’t the case. There’s still room to innovate within each of these archetypes, and they all feel one piece away from being busted. Overall, these deck are just too powerful to be dismissed as unplayable.

The Ugly

This is where Modern starts to confuse me. Looking at all of these decks often makes me question if I'm missing something, or if their pilots know they’re playing the same format as me. Obviously these decks are all still capable of winning matches and even doing well at tournaments, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. I can’t realistically go through every single one of these decks, but I’ll highlight the biggest offenders.

The first deck I want to talk is the newest Modern craze, and what was honestly one of the biggest inspirations for this article, Eldrazi Tron.

Eldrazi Tron ? Modern| Pascal Maynard

If I ever lose a match of Modern because of a Walking Ballista, I’ll immediately drop from the tournament. I’ve played against this deck 8 times with Death's Shadow, and I’ve only dropped a game. It’s to the point that I don’t even advocate bringing in Fulminator Mage because the 5- and 6-drops they’re attempting to cheat into play are just worse than what you’re doing for one and two mana. This all extends to Bant Eldrazi as well. Bant Eldrazi at least has access to solid removal and is one of the better Rest in Peace decks, but both decks are just inherently flawed at their core. They’re both too reliant on drawing Eldrazi Temple in the early game, and the payoff isn’t even very high when they do.

Chalice of the Void is the additional draw to the colorless version of the deck, but this is another card that’s difficult for me to get behind. During my testing for the Player’s Championship this past December, there was a point when I was actually doing pretty with W/R Prison deck online. When speaking to Jim about it, he made a pretty convincing point. If a good player knows you're playing a card like Chalice of the Void, the chances they lose to the card just aren’t very high. They’re going to mulligan, sideboard, and sequence correctly in order to beat it. In the later rounds of a tournament, you’re opponent is likely to be better, and they’re more likely to know what deck you’re on. So taking that into account, it’s difficult to endorse bringing this deck to a tournament if you’re goal is to make a deep run.

Burn ? Modern | Drew Christensen

In theory, Burn should be a reasonable deck. It has a fast clock, a powerful proactive gameplan, and can be difficult to interact with. This is another deck I tested for the Players’ Championship as it seemed like a good metagame call, but it didn’t feel particularly good against anything. Sometimes you stop at three lands and kill them, and sometimes you don’t. If a few of Burn’s better matchups start seeing more play it could be a fine choice, but as of right now I don’t think it’s quite there. A telling sign that now probably isn’t the best time to be sleeving up Lava Spike is that the deck with Street Wraith and Death's Shadow isn’t even a particularly good matchup.

Jund ? Modern | Ryan Hare

Jund isn’t necessarily a bad deck, but there’s very little reason to be playing it right now. Thoughtseize into Death's Shadow is a better play than Thoughtseize into Dark Confidant, and if you’re interested in going a bit bigger you should probably play Abzan. I’ve always been vocal in my criticisms of Path to Exile, but when you can expect that facing down one-mana 5/5s and two-mana 6/7s will be a common occurrence, it should get the nod over Lightning Bolt. Fatal Push has also made it so Abzan no longer has to max out on Paths in order to remove threats at an efficient rate.

Titanshift ? Modern| Jennifer Crotts

Tron ? Modern | Sean Hume

The purpose of these decks is to go over the top of the fair decks at the cost of sacrificing equity against unfair decks. There’s a glaring problem here though; most of the fair decks aren’t very good, and most of the unfair decks are at least solid. These decks only exist due to the disproportionate amount of fair decks that see play, and even at that I’m not convinced they beat the fair decks enough to warrant the large space they occupy in the metagame.

Closing Thoughts

I’m sure I was over hyperbolic at a few points, but this is a topic I’ve had on my mind for a while, and I was just trying to get my point across. I would also just like to point out that this was written solely from a competitive perspective and aimed towards those who are only interested in improving their win rate in the format. I understand everyone plays the game and enters tournaments for their own personal reasons, and I’m in no way advocating that you stop playing a deck you like just because I don’t think it’s very good. But, if your goal is to win, I strongly recommend trying out a better deck. If you’re already winning with an underwhelming deck, you’ll almost certainly win more with a deck that’s better.

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TAGS articles, metagame, constructed, analysis, modern, decklist, andrew jessup

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