Providence is fast approaching, and a Legacy GP represents a trading opportunity, which (for most of us) occurs once a year, at most. The format has undergone a surge in popularity over the past two years, and a tournament the size of a GP will bring out people who normally wouldn’t attend smaller tournaments. While SCG: Louisville only broke the 200 mark, GP: Columbus, last year, had nearly 1,300 people in attendance! (1,297 to be exact; see Aaron Forsythe’s Tweet here.)

Of course, at such a large tournament, there will be plenty of opportunities to either gain or lose value on trades. The sharks and grinders will be out in force, and many of the fish that wouldn’t normally be at competitive events will be as well. It would be foolish to go to such an event unprepared. So, today, I’d like to present a brief synopsis of the current top-performing decks, and a set of cards to look for when at Providence. Remember: Always go to a big event with a strategy!

Top 16 Metagame Breakdown

Without further ado, here is the breakdown of the Top 16s of the past two SCG Legacy Opens:

SCG: Orlando

Merfolk: 6

Team America: 3

Painted Stone: 2

Metalworker: 2

U/W Landstill / MUC: 2

Death and Taxes: 1

SCG: Louisville

Merfolk: 3

Team America: 3

Deadguy Ale / B/W Discard: 2

ANT: 1

Junk: 1

Lands: 1

MUC: 1

NO Bant: 1

Painted Stone: 1

Zoo: 1

Unsurprisingly, in the past two weeks, the Legacy metagame was dominated by Blue-based tempo decks: Merfolk and Team America. The reason is simple: Mental Misstep is a powerful 1-mana disruptive spell that can be played for free in a pinch. Misstep effectively plugs the hole that both decks suffered from (Team America less so than Merfolk), which was a difficulty in recovering from early pressure. Misstep neatly allows the tempo deck to counter a turn-one play, while at the same time deploying pressure or proactive disruption on turn one (Vial, Cursecatcher, Thoughtseize), and follow up that disruption with a strong turn-two play (Bob, Goyf, Lord of Atlantis, etc.). Misstep is also a powerful answer to many combo decks, in particular countering High Tide and Dark Ritual/Rite of Flame, as well as protecting other countermagic from Duress effects.

Correspondingly, those combo decks that did well over the past two weeks were decks that either dodged Misstep entirely (Metalworker) or packed a substantial protection passage. For example, Painted Stone has effectively twelve copies of Grindstone (Grindstone + Goblin Welder + Intuition) as well as Mental Misstep, Red Elemental Blast, and Force of Will to protect the combo pieces. The edition of ANT that made Top 16 of Louisville has seven main-deck Duress effects, in addition to the full four Xantid Swarm in the sideboard, and a transformational plan into Doomsday, should the deck need a way to dodge Misstep. High Tide, on the other hand, was nowhere to be found.

Most interesting, however, is the rise of mono-Blue (or nearly mono-Blue) Weissman-style control decks as an important component of the metagame. These decks were previously hindered by an inability to combat decks which could apply pressure on turn one, and then use that pressure to overload any form of board removal they possessed (usually Vedalken Shackles, sometimes Swords to Plowshares). The addition of Mental Misstep fills in this gap, enabling plays like “Turn one, Misstep your Lackey; turn two, Spell Snare your Piledriver; turn three, Shackles.”

It remains to be seen if these changes are permanent, but at the very least, they change the manner in which the Legacy metagame changes from week to week. It is likely that the metagame will adapt to these changes, probably by adopting more 2-drops to avoid Mental Misstep, which may lead to a resurgence in the use of Spell Snare (which then rotates back to a heavier emphasis on 1-drops, beginning the cycle again). The interactions are likely more complex than that, but if you can stay ahead of the metagame, you stand to make money in the margins.

Without further ado, here is a list of what I see as opportunities to make some value over the next couple weeks.

Interesting Cards to Watch

Batterskull

SCG price: $25

SCG stock: 19

Direction: down

As of this week, the newest addition to the Stoneforge Mystic toolkit in Standard has made the jump into Legacy, showing up in both B/W discard decks at Louisville. However, at the same time, Batterskull should suffer from “new mythic hype” syndrome in Standard, once people realize that spot removal—Dismember in particular—is a rather convenient way of preventing Batterskull from getting out of hand. If I had to place a guess, I would say that the reason Batterskull has remained as expensive as it has for now is because most of the high-level grinders have been busy brewing Legacy in anticipation of Providence, rather than gearing up for Standard season. Look to unload these, with an eye to pick them back up once the price has settled.

Crucible of Worlds

SCG price: $20

SCG stock: Out of Stock

Direction: up

Crucible is featured in both U/W Landstill and Lands. Both strategies are previously underplayed and now on the rise. Crucible stands to benefit.

Exploration

SCG price: $25

SCG stock: 51

Direction: up

Last year, in the period between the banning of Mystical Tutor and the unleashing of Vengevine Survival, Lands was a strategy steadily growing in popularity. At that time, Exploration went for around $30. This strategy is quite strong against both Team America and Merfolk, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it make a resurgence. Given the increased popularity of Legacy since last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Exploration reach $35 to $40 in the longer term.

Grindstone

SCG price: $30

SCG stock: out of stock

Direction: up

A few months ago, this was a $20 card. With Painted Stone combo consistently posting results, despite not being a terribly popular archetype, Grindstone stands to gain in value.

Intuition

SCG price: $25

SCG stock: out of stock

Direction: up

Not only sees play in High Tide, which will be back once people realize that the deck is fairly resilient to disruption, but also sees play in Painted Stone and many builds of Lands, both of which stand to gain ground in the current metagame.

Mental Misstep

SCG price: $6 ($40 foil)

SCG stock: out of stock (both regular and foil)

Direction: down

Spell Snare is a $3 card with a $20 foil, fills a similar role to Mental Misstep, and also comes from a third set in a block. While Misstep is a marginally better card because it can be a free spell, New Phyrexia has also only been out for two weeks, and people are scrambling to get ahold of Misstep for the GP. Look for these to drop off in the coming weeks once the mania dies down.

Repeal (foil)

SCG price: $6

SCG stock: 4

Direction: stable, but popular

Tech from Gerry Thompson’s new U/W Landstill deck that performed very well at Orlando. Both control mages and Legacy players in general like to pimp their decks, which is why a $0.25 common is a $6 card when shiny. Keep in mind that Japanese and Korean foils will likely trade at $20.

Sensei's Divining Top

SCG price: $15

SCG stock: 129

Direction: down

Counterbalance has been an awkward deck for a time now, because of the variety of viable casting costs in the current format, to the point where the soft lock is really only a value combo. These decks are slowly being replaced by more traditional control decks in the Legacy meta. In addition . . . Mental Misstep exists, and Top is one of those cards with a bull’s-eye printed on it. Personally, the fewer times I have to hear “spin top” in a Legacy event, the happier I will be, and the less games will drag on.

Standstill

SCG price: $15

SCG stock: 17

Direction: up

Not long ago, Standstill was an $8 to $10 card. The problem is that the card is amazing in situations where you are slightly ahead on the board (or have a man land vs. an empty board), but it is completely dead when you are behind. U/W Landstill obviously maximizes its use of the card, but Merfolk can also use Standstill to great effect now. In previous metagames, Standstill only amplified Merfolk’s weakness to Goblins and Cats, but with Misstep, the Fish player can much more easily get ahead on the board and use Standstill to grind out an advantage. I could easily see Standstill hitting $20 as the card’s usefulness catches on again.

Stifle

SCG price: $18

SCG stock: 37

Direction: down

Wait . . . six copies of Team America and I think Stifle is going down? That’s right. In those six decks, there were a grand total of five copies of Stifle. In addition, the mage running three Stifles in Orlando—Chris VanMeter—wrote last week on SCG that it was the worst card in his seventy-five. The problem is, frankly, that Stifle very frequently does nothing, and even when it does do something, a conditional Stone Rain just isn’t very powerful in Legacy. When was the last time Sinkhole saw top-level play?

Vedalken Shackles

SCG price: $15

SCG stock: 4

Direction: up

Always a popular casual and Commander card, and a card that saw fringe play in Legacy for years, Shackles is perfect against decks that can only manage to stick one or two creatures vs. a mono-Blue control deck. Conveniently, this is the vast majority of the format, particularly as 3-drops like Mirran Crusader become more prevalent. Oh, and it can steal Emrakul as well. As mono-Blue continues to gain in popularity, look for Shackles price to follow.

That’s all I have for this week, folks. Look for me at the trade tables at Providence!