The semifinal of Pro Tour Dark Ascension between Kibler and Finkel was awesome. However, I believe that Finkel made a couple mistakes, proving that no one—not even the great Jon Finkel—is perfect. On the Sunday stage, Finkel definitely gave away the match in Game 5 and very well could have given it away earlier in Game 3. As much as I would like to take a look at both games, each requires in-depth analysis to do it justice. Thus, in this article, we’re only going to look at the more straight forward one: Game 5. Let’s see what we can learn from Finkel.

Giving Away the Match in Game 5

This is, by far, the more straightforward of the two situations. First, let’s look at the board state when Finkel untaps for his turn.

The board state:

Finkel’s life: 10

Finkel’s hand: Drogskol Captain, Lingering Souls, Negate, Snapcaster Mage, Dungeon Geists

Finkel’s graveyard: Gitaxian Probe, Mana Leak, 2 Ponder, 2 Evolving Wilds

Finkel’s battlefield: 5 Spirits, Snapcaster Mage, 4 Islands, Swamp, Plains, Moorland Haunt

Kibler’s life: 11

Kibler’s hand: 4 cards, including Galvanic Blast and Combust

Kibler’s battlefield: 1 Wolf (tapped), Sphere of the Suns, Copperline Gorge, 2 Forest, Mountain, 2 Inkmoth Nexus, 2 Rootbound Crag

The line Finkel chooses is to attack with everything, sending Kibler to 4, and then to play Lingering Souls. Kibler takes his turn, attacks for 2 with his Wolf (which Finkel does not block), and then kills Finkel with three Galvanic Blasts through a Negate. Finkel flat out gave away this game in two ways. First, not blocking the Wolf was incorrect—obviously in hindsight. Many people probably looked at the situation and stopped there. However, I want to go another step back. The Lingering Souls was not correct, and it may have been correct to leave a single Spirit back to block. Let’s look at the situation in more detail.

The first thing to note is that Kibler needs both of his Inkmoth Nexuses to trigger metalcraft. Thus, if Finkel is able to force one of them to trade or chump-block, the threat of a metalcrafted Galvanic Blast disappears. This essentially removes any of Kibler’s options to actually win the game.

Finkel knows that two of the cards in Kibler’s hand are Galvanic Blast and Combust. Therefore, there are only two mystery cards. Kibler will draw another one, giving Finkel a grand total of three unknown cards to consider. Because of Finkel’s board position, a large majority of Kibler’s cards are irrelevant. The only relevant cards are red ones: Galvanic Blast, Slagstorm, Whipflare, Inferno Titan, and Huntmaster of the Fells. The Pro Tour Top 8 is played with open decklists, so Finkel knows that the singleton Autumn's Veil has already been played. Thus, he’s in a situation in which he has 7 power spread across six creatures, and Kibler has to deal with that somehow. Therefore, let’s look at all the possible relevant combinations of cards Kibler could have (including his next draw step).

Kibler’s actual hand: Galvanic Blasts 2 and 3 and a mystery topdeck

Finkel beats this either by blocking or having access to both Negate and Snapcaster for Negate. Kibler already has access to metalcraft by activating both Nexuses, and Mana Leak is useless against Galvanic Blast. Finkel is dead to a fourth Galvanic Blast here because all four will be metalcraft-powered, but that is the only line in which Finkel loses. If he tries to be tricky and flash in Snapcaster Mage, giving Mana Leak flashback, and then block the Wolf when Kibler attacks, he will lose to the same line. He will be at 10 life, but three Galvanic Blasts will resolve, thus killing him anyway.

Finkel can beat the four-Blasts line if he leaves one Spirit back on defense to block the Wolf. If Kibler Combusts the Spirit, Finkel can beat the Galvanic Blast–times-four line with the Snapcaster trick mentioned above—the Mana Leak will counter one of the Blasts. If Kibler doesn’t Combust, the Spirit will die to the Wolf, and Finkel can counter two of the four Blasts, allowing him to swing back for lethal.

A more interesting situation arises if Kibler draws Slagstorm or Whipflare. Assume Finkel sends Kibler to 4 and leaves up two counterspells. Obviously, Kibler will attack for 2, sending Finkel to 8. Then, Kibler has two ways to play this out: He can try to resolve the sweeper first, or he can try to kill Finkel first. If he tries to resolve the sweeper first, Finkel will die unless he allows the sweeper to resolve. Kibler can spend 2 or 3 mana on a sweeper, 2 mana to activate both Nexuses, then 3 mana to play three Galvanic Blasts. If Finkel counters the sweeper, he will die because two of the Galvanic Blasts will resolve. If he lets the sweeper resolve, Kibler doesn’t have to play the Galvanic Blasts.

What happens here if Finkel leaves back a Spirit to block and only sends Kibler to 5? This is a very different situation. If Kibler has Slagstorm as his sweeper, he can’t kill Finkel—Kibler only has access to 5 red mana. Finkel can counter the Slagstorm and one Galvanic Blast, block the Wolf with the Spirit, and survive. However, what happens if Kibler draws Whipflare? Well, Whipflare with Combust and three Galvanic Blasts and two Nexus activations cost 9 mana, only 5 of which is red. Combust on the Spirit will resolve, allowing Kibler to get through for 2, sending Finkel to 8, putting him in the same let-the-sweeper-resolve-or-lose situation.

The awkward thing about Kibler drawing a sweeper here is that he can hold the Galvanic Blasts because Finkel has to allow the sweeper to resolve. This enables him to Blast down tokens at his leisure. After this, Kibler can buy a couple turns with that tactic and blocking with his Inkmoth Nexuses, which makes it much harder to predict. Still, Finkel is not in a terrible spot—he can reload with a full Lingering Souls and has Dungeon Geists as well. Once again, if Finkel goes and plays the Lingering Souls, he is much worse off because either he will die or the sweeper will resolve, leaving him with two fewer Spirit tokens post-sweeper.

Most other topdecks are significantly less interesting because Kibler doesn’t have the mana to use all his cards.

Possible Combination 1 – Three Sweepers

(one of which must be Whipflare)

Kibler’s intention with this combination of cards is obviously to clear off all of Finkel’s pressure. He will be successful as well. If Kibler has three sweepers, he will attack, and Finkel will fall to 8. Then, Kibler will play all his sweepers, and Finkel will be able to Negate one, play Snapcaster for Negate for the second, and then lose all his dudes to the third. In this situation, it is obviously better for him to not have played the Lingering Souls because it allows him to deploy 4 points of pressure immediately (Lingering Souls and flash it back). Since Kibler will be at 4 if Finkel attacks with everything, this leaves Finkel with lethal on the table.

Barring a topdecked Huntmaster or Inferno Titan, Finkel can then use the Drogskol Captain to force one of the two removal spells and force the second out of Kibler’s hand or trade off at least one Inkmoth Nexus as well—Kibler would both have to kill the Captain and block or kill one of the four Spirits. If Finkel plays Lingering Souls, he will still lose his entire team, but Kibler will have a sweeper left over, and Finkel will only have half a Lingering Souls and a Snapcaster Mage. This is worse because half of Finkel’s 4 power is on the ground, giving Kibler way more outs to topdeck.

If, in this situation, Kibler successfully topdecks Huntmaster of the Fells or Inferno Titan, Kibler almost certainly wins the game. Finkel’s resources will be depleted, and I’m pretty sure both of those cards will beat him—even with a Dungeon Geists available. Still, that is two topdecks away, and Finkel is still in the game if Kibler draws something irrelevant like a ramp spell. Three sweepers is the worst possible card combination for Kibler to have here, and it’s still not unreasonable for Finkel to win, especially if he manages to draw a second Drogskol Captain.

So, what happens here if Finkel leaves back a Single spirit to block, playing around the possibility of four Galvanic Blasts? Well, the answer is that it is actually much, much worse for him. Because he can only deploy 4 power post-sweeper, Kibler has an extra turn to topdeck outs. In this situation, Finkel may be forced to deploy his Dungeon Geists simply as a 4-mana 3/3 flyer and use half of a Lingering Souls to put 5 power on the table. This hurts him a lot.

Possible Combination 2 – Slagstorm, Whipflare, and Galvanic Blast

This is easy. Finkel simply counters both sweepers with Negate and Snapcaster for Negate. Kibler will then die to the ensuing swing. He has three removal spells, but he can’t stop 4 points of damage—even without allocating a removal spell for Drogskol Captain. Once again, though, if Finkel plays Lingering Souls, one of the two sweepers will resolve, allowing Kibler to make it back into the game.

So, what happens here if Finkel leaves back a Spirit to block the Wolf? Well, Kibler once again has sufficient removal to stop himself from dying. He can Combust the Captain, then kill a token, leaving himself at 1 and still holding a Galvanic Blast. However, this situation is probably fine for Finkel—he can then play Lingering Souls for a total of five attackers next turn. Kibler will then have to topdeck again to not die.

Thus, in this situation, Finkel wins if he doesn’t cast Lingering Souls, and he’s in a bad spot if he does. He can leave a Spirit back to block or not, but it doesn’t make a huge difference one way or the other.

Possible Combination 3 – Inferno Titan with Other Things

Beating an Inferno Titan is mind-numbingly simple. Finkel only has to play his Snapcaster for Mana Leak. At this juncture, Kibler has two options: pay or allow the Inferno Titan to be countered. If he pays, Kibler will take down three creatures. Finkel can then play Drogskol Captain and get in for 4 in the air. If Kibler has an untapped land and plays Galvanic Blast on a fourth token, Finkel can simply play Dungeon Geists and get in with both Snapcaster Mages. Lingering Souls is unnecessary here.

Kibler also has the option of not paying for the Mana Leak on the Inferno Titan. This makes sense if he has a sweeper. In this situation, Finkel can simply Negate the sweeper and swing back for lethal regardless of what Kibler does. It is important to note here that there is no way Kibler can play two sweepers after an Inferno Titan because he requires at least one land to do so, and he only has access to three cards that Finkel will not know. This is not affected by whether Finkel leaves back a Spirit to block the Wolf—he has 5 damage in the air . . . not to mention two Snapcasters on the ground. Note that the sweeper resolves here if Finkel doesn’t have access to the Negate (because he played Lingering Souls).

What about leaving a single Spirit back to block the Wolf and Kibler paying for the Titan?

Well, in this situation, Kibler will be at 5. He will have two Snapcaster Mages and four Spirits for Kibler to choose from for his Inferno Titan targets. If Kibler leaves zero Snapcasters alive, he is dead to the same Captain-plus-Negate line, so that’s that. If Kibler leaves one Snapcaster alive, he survives another turn. Finkel’s best line is probably to simply play Dungeon Geists and get in for 4, leaving up Negate. If he drops the Captain, too, he forces a Galvanic Blast, but he loses horribly to Slagstorm.

If Kibler leaves both Snapcasters alive, Finkel can play Dungeon Geists to tap down the Inferno Titan and kill Kibler with 4 damage from Snapcasters and 1 from a Spirit. Finkel has Negate for any potential Galvanic Blast from a tenth land.

The most important thing to note is that Kibler also survives if he doesn’t attack with the Wolf—he can block a Snapcaster Mage and shoot down the Drogskol Captain. In this situation, Finkel can play Lingering Souls and leave up Negate, simply threatening to kill Kibler next turn since he will definitely live through this turn.

The important thing to note against Inferno Titan is that leaving back a Spirit token to block leads to many awkward situations. However, this is easily countered by the fact that attacking with all five Spirits and both Snapcasters results in Inferno Titan being a losing proposition.

Possible Combination 4 – Huntmaster with Other Things

Huntmaster is a problematic card for Finkel at this point because it gains Kibler 2 life, putting him at 6. I think the proper response from Finkel is to play Snapcaster for Mana Leak and try to put himself in the best possible situation. If Kibler pays for the Mana Leak, he only has 2 or 3 mana to deal with two Snapcasters and five Spirit tokens. Let’s take a look at the situation:

• If Kibler has an extra untapped land, Finkel cannot kill him immediately.
• If Kibler does not have an extra untapped land and does not attack with his existing Wolf, Finkel cannot kill him immediately.
• If Kibler does not have an extra untapped land and attacks with his existing Wolf, Kibler dies to Drogskol Captain and Dungeon Geists tapping down a blocker—unless he has a second Galvanic Blast.
• If Kibler has a second Galvanic Blast and Huntmaster, Finkel cannot kill him immediately.

The thing is that it’s not that bad for Finkel to give Kibler an extra turn in this situation. No matter what, Kibler goes to 1 because of Finkel’s air force. He can play Dungeon Geists and put Kibler in a real bind. Kibler will have two Snapcasters and five Spirits coming at him while at 6 life. Assuming Kibler attacked, he will only have one blocker. He will clearly block one Snapcaster and then have to point removal spells elsewhere. Here’s the problem: It is very difficult for Kibler to target his removal properly. He has to kill either the Snapcaster Mage or two Spirit tokens to survive. This is definitely accomplishable, but the problem is Finkel’s follow-up play.

If Kibler chooses to ice Snapcaster Mage with Galvanic Blast, Finkel can force him to use Combust by Negating the Galvanic Blast. Then, Kibler can get into a decent position by playing Inferno Titan, killing the three remaining Spirit tokens, blocking the Dungeon Geists once with an Inkmoth Nexus, then killing it with the Titan attack trigger. Thus, if Kibler has Huntmaster, Inferno Titan, and Galvanic Blast or Huntmaster, Inferno Titan, and an untapped land, Finkel could be in trouble if he simply attacks and passes the turn.

The awkward thing about this situation is that Finkel can deal with a potential Inferno Titan by playing Lingering Souls this turn, putting enough Spirits into play that Drogskol Captain will force a few points of damage through. The issue is that it taps him out and leaves him vulnerable to Slagstorm or Whipflare post-Huntmaster. Even so, he will still have a flashback on Lingering Souls and Drogskol Captain to work with, while Kibler will be completely spent since Huntmaster will die to a sweeper. This is awkward because, if Finkel taps down to play a Lingering Souls as well, he is vulnerable Slagstorm, which could be countered by Negate.

Another worrisome hand here is Huntmaster, an untapped land, and Slagstorm. Against this hand, Finkel can attack Kibler down to 4, and then pass the turn. Assuming Kibler attacks then plays Huntmaster, Finkel can still respond with Snapcaster for Mana Leak. If Kibler pays and has the Slagstorm, Finkel can best it just by playing Dungeon Geists. This will not allow the Slagstorm to resolve, forcing Kibler to use a removal spell. He can Combust the Dungeon Geists at the end of the turn, allowing his Huntmaster to untap, but if he does this, he loses to Drogskol Captain from Finkel.

Kibler can try to work around this situation by not attacking with his existing Wolf, but then Finkel can simply play both the Captain and Dungeon Geists, attacking for 5 in the air and 4 on the ground. Kibler can kill the Captain and block one Snapcaster. He can then block the other one. Huntmaster will survive, and Kibler will be at 1. Kibler can then transform Huntmaster and kill the Dungeon Geists during Finkel’s upkeep with Combust, but that still leaves him at 1 facing down four Spirits. Finkel will be at 8 after the Huntmaster trigger, but Kibler will only have one Wolf able to attack. Finkel will win on the backswing. This is not a winning line for Kibler, so he will be forced to Slagstorm instead of transforming his Huntmaster. Finkel can then redeploy pressure with a full four Spirits from Lingering Souls. Here, Kibler is at 1 life, facing down four Spirit tokens with one card in hand.

The combination of Huntmaster and either Inferno Titan or Slagstorm is an awkward one for Finkel. The Huntmaster gives Kibler the potential to survive another turn and take advantage of his resources a bit better and try to turn the game around. In this situation, the line that Finkel actually takes is reasonable. By playing the Lingering Souls, Finkel ends up having seven Spirits in play. Finkel can force the issue by playing Snapcaster Mage for Mana Leak in addition to Lingering Souls. This allows him to present seven Spirits and two Snapcaster Mages. With the Dungeon Geists and Drogskol Captain follow-up, Kibler is dead unless he has Slagstorm.

The problem is that if Kibler has Slagstorm, Finkel is in a really bad spot. Kibler will gain 2 life and go to 6, then resolve a Slagstorm, taking Finkel’s team. Finkel will have Dungeon Geists and Drogskol Captain to follow, but it isn’t that great of a situation.

On the other hand, if Finkel doesn’t force the issue with Snapcaster for Mana Leak on Huntmaster, Kibler can survive by blocking with Inkmoth Nexuses, potentially buying him more time to try to put an Inferno Titan on the table or resolve a Slagstorm or more removal spells. However, in this situation, the Drogskol Captain follow-up is reasonably strong. Kibler will have to trade off a Nexus (thus, leaving him without metalcraft capability), and also kill the Drogskol. This will leave Finkel with Negate for any potential sweepers and Snapcaster for Mana Leak in the case of a Titan.

The above situations are pretty much the only lines in which a pre-deployed Lingering Souls has measurable benefits over simply passing the turn. Even so, you can see that it is still hairy for Finkel either way. If he chooses the wrong follow-up, he is likely to be blown out.

Against two Huntmaster of the Fells, having the Lingering Souls pre-deployed is helpful because there will be 7 flying power, and one of the Huntmasters will not resolve. If Kibler takes the opportunity that Finkel is tapped out to kill a token, Drogskol Captain will be lethal. If Finkel untaps, he will have Negate for Galvanic Blast.

However, Lingering Souls is not necessary in this situation since Kibler is probably dead anyway. With only one Huntmaster in play, Finkel can use Negate to protect Drogskol Captain if Kibler doesn’t have a land. If Kibler does have a land, he can play both Dungeon Geists and Drogskol Captain. Dungeon Geists can tap down a token and force through a Snapcaster Mage. With 5 damage in the air and 2 on the ground, Kibler is dead. If Kibler leaves back a token to block, Huntmaster will go down in the ensuing combat, dealing with that problem for Finkel. Kibler will have no cards in hand and one Wolf token on the table, and he will be facing down an army of flyers. It’s sweeper or bust off the top.

The problem with all the Huntmaster lines is that it’s very unlikely Kibler is holding a Huntmaster at the moment. Kibler had access to 9 mana last turn and chose not to do anything. What benefit does he gain by sandbagging Huntmaster in that situation? None really. The most powerful aspect of Huntmaster is Kibler’s ability to control the transformations, and thus, he would want to put it on the table as soon as possible. He had a pretty good opportunity last turn—he could have resolved it through a Mana Leak, so it stands to reason that he simply doesn’t have a Huntmaster.

Thus, from Finkel’s perspective, if Kibler has a Huntmaster next turn, it’s coming off the top.

Conclusion

Finkel’s actual line of playing Lingering Souls was simply an example of overextending. The only thing it even sort of counters is some of the Huntmaster of the Fells–off-the-top draws from Kibler. Even then, Finkel still has reasonable recourse in most situations leaving up two counterspells. In a number of the other situations, Lingering Souls is worse than leaving up two counters, and in the rest, it is equally good. There is simply very little reason for Finkel to play Lingering Souls given what he has seen out of Kibler. Huntmaster of the Fells is the primary incentive for Finkel to play Lingering Souls, but it should be fairly evident that Kibler was not on the card since he didn’t play it last turn.

I did look at some situations in which Finkel could leave a Spirit back to block Kibler’s existing Wolf, but that play is a lot more dubious. What is clear though is that in no way should Finkel have played Lingering Souls. Leaving up Snapcaster Mage and Negate gives him a much stronger position from which to respond to the vast majority of Kibler’s plays. I don’t really know what was going on in Finkel’s head, but the evidence is clear: Finkel punted Game 5, and not just by not blocking, but by playing the Lingering Souls in the first place.

Chingsung Chang

Conelead most everywhere and on MTGO

Khan32k5 at gmail dot com