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Deck Testing Continued - Why do they win?

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Ok, Ok, so what exactly makes these decks win? Is it the power of a BIG bomb like Doran, Profane Command and Bitterblossom Or is it the synergy created by Merfolk? My last article showed some of the statistical results in, what will be, the most common match ups for the upcoming Block PTQs.

Let’s get ready to rumble…

Match up – Faeries vs Doran 22 out of 50

(Faeries wins 44% of the time)

This is a tough matchup for both decks. Between the tricks that Faeries has and the removal and strength Doran rolls with. Each game can go either way with no clear cut system of winning.

One thing is for sure, Bitterblossom is huge in this matchup. The supporting cast can begin to thrive as you take 1 damage every turn. Whether it be to Spellstutter Sprites the threats Doran casts or to set up a Garruk Wildspeaker or a big Profane Command as a final blow, myriads of flying 1/1s can really add up and become abusive. Bitterblossom alone provides multiple permanents which is theoretically “broken” as it is. If you can quickly and easily remove or destroy it, you are 1 step closer to victory. Doran doesn't suffer as much as Faeries does when losing the Bitterblossom, but can suffer as it's an early threat for Doran.

Once you break the synergy of Faeries the game can easily sway to your favor. We used cards like Cloudthresher and Raking Canopy to disrupt the flow of fliers in bulk. Understand that Raking Canopy can cause merely a standstill, but with blossoms out, it just might be enough. Doran also uses the spot removal to finish off the other annoyances which pushed Doran ahead. Kitchen Finks also provided that last bit to completely sway the card and life advantage in your favor.

For Faeries, Cryptic Command is huge! Once you're at 4 lands, utilizing Command or Mistbind Clique becomes crucial to your pursuit of victory. Use your Scions of Oona as counterspells is another way to gain card advantage, but ultimately, it's all about your 4 cc spells.

Match – Faeries vs Merfolk 29 out of 50

(Faeries wins 58% of the time)

[cardpic card="merrow reejerey"][/cardpic]This is definitely NOT as tough a match up in block as it is in Standard. Essentially you have 4 LESS threats against the Faerie deck. Which is just enough to sit easy and build up your army against the Fish. Fish are relatively fast, but have virtually no versatility. If Merrow Reejerey hits the table then it swings to the Merfolk advantage. Interestingly, I hear so many people say “Merfolk is stronger than Faeries” yet it has yet to show very many impressive finishes. I'm not sure if it's because of the sheer number of Faeries players overwhelming the fish or perhaps it's just the fragile nature of Merfolk. If the Merfolk do NOT get the Merrow Reejerey (or the Lord of Atlantis in standard) it cannot overpower opponents or flourish with cantrip like creatures.

There is a card or two from Shadowmoor that really helps Merfolk push a victory through, but you'll have to read the forums to get that info!

Match – Doran vs Merfolk 35 out of 50

(Doran wins 70% of the time)

The biggest part of this match up is the removal. Merfolk puts up some pressure early, but if you Thoughtseize the Reejerey on turn 1, turn 2 or turn 3 then it forces the Fish to live off of the top of the deck. You can also choose to kill the Stonybrook Banneret, which can also prevent explosive turns for the Merfolk. Doran and Profane can really swing momentum away from Merfolk.

Merfolk can win easily with a quick explosion on T3 or T4 if the Doran team doesn't respond aggressively. Or, one can spawn a few fish and protect the game with countermagic. It's not like this matchup is an auto-loss for Merfolk, but it is beneficial to have a “Lord” to help pave the way to victory.

Let's look at some other decks:

Warriors – This deck is a GREAT theme in LLM Draft, where things are much more drawn out and the necessity for acceleration isn't really a requirement. Haste is huge paired with the big P/T. What it suffers from in constructed is the speed that kills. Haste really isn't a benefit when it happens after turn 4 and since LMS doesn't have 1cc elves or birds it just runs like a slow Giant deck.

Goblins – It has the tools and it has the relative speed, but what it doesn't have is synergy. Yes you can cast a myriad of Goblins, but should this deck be more of a Rogue Style or pure Goblin technology? It's hard to say, and it's hard to prove. Once you've emptied your hand, there really is nothing that you can do to refill with reinforcements.

Wilt Leaf – Boy o Boy did this deck just pop out of no where or what? My build is essentially Green/Black, with the creatures who just happen to be white also. They get BIG really fast and persist helps also. I was able to include Bitterblossom, which is another plus, but it’s the Leige and Shield of the Oversoul that REALLY boosts this deck to the winner’s circle. Turn 3 can have you with a Safehold Elite and Shield for a 4/4 indestructible. You say, “not impressive”, then how about a T4 Kitchen Finks with Shield for 5/4 that gained you 2 life? The hardest part about building this deck, is what to cut. Don’t forget that Doran can be part of this bashing which makes the deck even MORE likely to show up in Top 8s everywhere.

Mannequin – Take 20 – 28 creatures of your choice (regardless of color), put it in a green deck that can virtually cast anything, due to it’s versatility. Add to that removal and Makeshift Mannequin and you’ve got the answer to anything. This deck was very fun, yet very complicated to play. We had Shriekmaws, Doran, Reveilark, Mulldrifter, Kitchen Finks as our win condition and Mannequin to rub it in. I’m still looking to find a way to put it all together efficiently, so I’m not completely sold. The statistics during testing shows that card quality alone can win.

Kithkin – I’ve been working on Kithkin lately and have won a few matches here and there. It’s not a powerhouse, but I can assure you, it’s not as weak as Warriors and Goblins. I have found synergy and explosiveness in these little weenies which might just be enough.

I’m sure most of you know what cards make these decks good or even bad. What many people take for granted is the different ways they win. During a recent T2 tourney I participated in, I witnessed many faerie players using counterspells prematurely. What would have merely cost 2 to 8 points of damage, cost them the game eventually.

An example would be:

Faerie player has a T2 Bitterblossom in play. On Turn 4 Doran player plays Doran. Now the Faerie player had several faeries in hand, with 4+ lands in play, and he is getting a faerie every upkeep from the blossom, but he uses his only Spellstutter to counter the Doran. On the next turn, the Doran player successfully casts Doran and uses a small Profane command to take over the game and achieve victory.

Countering the Doran might not have been a bad play. However, the Faerie player didn’t have a lot of outs (in the counter spell area). So, taking 1 per turn to block Doran and laying EOT Faeries to pick away for the win was probably the better alternative. Someone could say, “the Faerie player didn’t know what the Doran player had” and I would return with “the Faerie player DID know what the Faerie player had”.

I won (split in finals) with a relatively rogue deck last week because I analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the top 4 decks in Standard. My guess paid off and it can for you too. You just can’t be too hard-headed in thinking your way is always the right way. Remember what I said in an article recently, most people are either aggro or control players. You obviously don’t have to conform to win a tournament, and more often than not, winning with your own concoction is fulfilling. However, more often than not, you’re not going to win against decks that have had hundreds (if not thousands) of players playtesting with these “top tier” decks.

I’m not sure I can playtest block any more… I’m going to go back to MTGO3 and draft.

-- Lee

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