As usual, the market is moving, and the metagame is shifting! I know that everyone wants to get straight into the analysis, but before we do, here are a few of the changes we made this week based on reader suggestions:

1. Divided the tables into separate "Winners" and "Losers" tables
2. Added table sortability (thanks, Trick!)
3. Added a Net Dollar Change column to supplement the Percentage Change column; the Dollar Change column in now the default sort

In addition, I attempted to add a column to "tag" the decks that relevant cards are in, but listing the decks became too unwieldy for a table format, because many of these cards are played in multiple decks across Standard and Extended. When the only way to really list the decks a card is played in becomes "any w/ Islands" or "any w/ Plains," the information starts to lose its utility! It also didn't make much sense to go past the top eight this week, because after the top eight, nothing shifted by more than $0.20, and most of that was fetch lands slowly creeping northward.

As usual, if you have any comments or suggestions on presentation, or data trends you would like to see explored, please tell me in the comments.

With all of that mentioned, here we go!

Winners:

In the lead-up to the first major Standard tournament after Pro Tour: Paris, the up-and-coming Stoneforge Mystic/Sword of Feast and Famine combo continues to dominate the metagame. Plus, if SCG Open: D.C. results are any indicator, that dynamic duo is here to stay. The Top 16 of the most recent SCG Open featured no fewer than forty-three copies of Stoneforge Mystic, spread across three distinct archetypes: Caw-Blade, Boros, and G/W Quest. The only card with more copies than the Mystic? Everyone's favorite Planeswalker, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, came in first with forty-six copies in the Top 16, spread across Caw-Blade, R/U/G, and Ali Aintrazi's new Architect Control brew.

If we put these two winning cards together, it becomes fairly obvious what archetype continues to dominate the format: Caw-Blade, which put nine decks in the Top 16 of the SCG Open, and four in the Top 8. Gideon Jura is a frequent three-of in the deck, particularly in this aggressive format, which explains his recent surge in value. Interestingly, however, the increased value of Jace Beleren is not because of the rise of Caw-Blade, as none of the Hawk decks ran Little Jace in their sideboard. This fact means two things. First, the value of Jace is being driven by Faeries in Extended and traditional U/B control holdouts in Standard. Second, we can assume that if Caw-Blade continues to demolish U/B control (likely, given the typical strength of fish decks against traditional control), Jace Beleren will likely lose some value as we near the rotation of Extended (LSV has also suggested that Sword of Feast and Famine is better than Little Jace in Faeries, which may have an impact on deck lists). Equipping a Squadron Hawk is just a better way to win the Jace wars in the current metagame.

The last two cards to discuss—and the only ones not in some way related to Squadron Hawk—are Mox Opal and Tezzeret. Opal's price is driven largely by the surge in Kuldotha Red, but is also supported by a small uptick of Affinity in Legacy. This surge is interesting, given the substandard performance of Kuldotha Red at both PT: Paris, and now SCG Open: D.C. Given that performance, I might normally expect Opal to level off soon, but it may have some room to grow in the near future because of the ready availability of the new Into the Breach Event Deck—which is effectively a tournament-playable deck, missing a few rares (two to three Contested War Zones, two Goblin Guides, and two to three Mox Opals). Given the ease of building the tournament version of Kuldotha Red from the event deck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Opal's price stay where it is or uptick a little.

As far as Tezzeret is concerned, it has increased in value as the "brewer's card of choice" from Mirrodin Besieged. Despite the attraction, as well as Chapin's and Juza's solid performances in the Standard portion of PT: Paris with Tezzy, it failed to make a dent at SCG Open: D.C., and most of the Legacy brews with Tezzeret are premature. Unless the card posts significant results in the next couple of weeks, I would expect its price to trend slightly downward in the medium term.

Losers:

The story of this week's losers is the story of "what's not needed" in the current metagame. To use Chapin's wording, if determining the financial winners requires a front-back analysis of the metagame, then determining what cards are losing value requires a back-front analysis. One crystal-clear example of this is the decline in values of Koth of the Hammer and Kargan Dragonlord. Both cards chiefly found their value in mono-Red or Boros Sligh decks. However, with the advent of Battle Cry as a mechanic, and the printing of Hero of Oxid Ridge and Mirran Crusader—both cards with stable to slightly uptrending value—the aggressive decks have better ways to use their mana on turns two through four. Why play Koth and make one 4-power man when I can drop Hero and make a 4-power man, plus get in for an additional two to three points of damage from Battle Cry? Consequently, while Koth may have some role in the Red deck as a major threat versus control, it doesn't have as much as in previous metagames, and Kargan Dragonlord has lost nearly all its value in the current meta.

The story of the declining value of the Titans, Massacre Wurm, and Thrun is quite similar. With traditional U/B control largely dominated by Caw-Blade, Grave Titan, Frost Titan, and Massacre Wurm no longer have as much value as previously. The finisher of choice is now Squadron Hawk or Sun Titan. These trends also explain the downward trend of Consecrated Sphinx and Baneslayer Angel, particularly when coupled with their lack of 187 abilities to offset their lack of inborn protection.

Inferno Titan, which is still played in R/U/G to great effect, is nevertheless only a small part of the metagame due to the difficulty of playing R/U/G, keeping its presence small in the current meta. Thrun, which was originally assumed to find play in Valakut or R/U/G, simply lacks a place in the current Standard environment. A 4/4 just isn't a very large threat in a world of hordes of small men and 6/6 Titans, particularly when it doesn't bring along a way of dealing with Swords. In that sense, Acidic Slime is actually a more relevant card for both decks. Unless someone discovers a role for Thrun holding a Sword (much like Troll Ascetic used to do), his value should decline into the $10 range, supported largely by his playability in Legacy sideboards (e.g., versus Merfolk and Counterbalance).

Sadly for the much-anticipated Hero of Bladehold, and its potential companion Eldrazi Monument, we seem to be a Spectral Procession and second Crusade short of tokens being a viable strategy in Standard. The existence of Slagstorm, Pyroclasm, and Black Sun's Zenith makes Wrath effects likely too prevalent for this type of strategy to have a lasting impact if it does show up. Of course, if it turns out that I am wrong, and a deck does show up, look for Elspeth Tirel to trend upward as well.

All right, folks, that's all for this week. Until next time, happy investing!