Introduction

Hello all, and welcome back to "Diminishing Returns." It's been a few weeks, so it's time to come back to the Standard stock ticker. I've adjusted the threshold to be +/− $0.50, given the length of time between stock ticker articles.

As a reminder on how this column works, or a primer for those who were not ManaNation readers, this article presents data on the Standard market's big winners and losers over the last week (or sometimes two to three weeks, if I write about other topics in between). The data below will look low to just about everyone who is used to getting data from SCG, TCG Player, or another site like CoolStuffInc. That is because I use data from the Magic Online Trading League, or MOTL, which runs an aggregator of eBay prices on physical Magic cards sold. The database is updated weekly.

TL;DR version: The prices you see are eBay averages and are not retail prices.

I use this data for three reasons.

1. The data comes in an easily downloadable text file format, which makes my workload manageable —much more so than having to scan entire sets every week.
2. I don't like pimping out a particular retailer.
3. The prices are the most accurate indicator of what price you, a normal Magic player or grinder, will receive as a resell value if you use eBay, which is obviously the most common outlet for these cards, barring in-person transactions. Any large trader executing a substantial trade will use MOTL prices, and not SCG (or any other) retail, because they know that retail prices are not what they will receive on their cards if they sell them.

TL;DR version: No, I won't use SCG prices. This data is easier to compile, and a more accurate representation of actual resale value for individual players.

In general, I use a +/− $0.20 threshold from week to week to determine what constitutes a "big move," but I will increase that margin if it has been longer ($0.30 to $0.40 for two weeks, $0.50 to $0.60 for three weeks).

With that out of the way, on to the data!

Winners:

Much of this table has looked roughly the same for the past month and a half or so. Cards in Caw-Blade variants continue to rise in price, though the rate has slowed down. This doesn't surprise anyone; Caw-Blade is a reasonable deck, and most of its logical opponents (mid-range aggro) are held down by Valakut. Gideon Jura and Day of Judgment also give the deck serious game versus [insert Red deck here], so Caw-Blade isn't as vulnerable to straight aggro as traditional tempo decks (e.g. Faeries, Merfolk) are.

The second major trend here indicates the rise of U/B Infect as a legitimate strategy, following Brian Kibler's unveiling of the deck at SCG: Los Angeles. When a pro pilots a deck to a top finish in an SCG $5K, people tend to notice. This explains why Phyrexian Crusader continues to rise in value (though some people will still trade them at $4 to $5, so be on the lookout), as do Skittles and Creeping Tar Pit (though Darkblade is part of the Creeping Tar Pit movement).

Inferno Titan continues its upward movement as the finisher of choice in R/U/G. Given all the tiny Hawks and other little critters running around, this should surprise no one.

Losers:

The Losers chart contains a lot more information, following a larger number of subthemes, than the straightforward Winners chart (seems to be a trend, doesn't it?). A number of the cards here have an easy answer: They were overvalued, and never found a deck in which they worked. Alternatively, they had a deck at one point, but have been overshadowed by better options. This is the case for most of the cards on the list—from Demon of Death's Gate, to Thrun, to Blightsteel Colossus, to Grave Titan and Frost Titan, to Nissa Revane and Green Sun's Zenith. Most of the remaining cards have been pressured out by the twin towers of Valakut and Caw-Blade (e.g. Vengevine, Kalastria Highborn). While the story for some of these cards might be a little more complex, and some are decent long-term pickups (e.g. Green Sun's Zenith, once it bottoms out, because of its flexibility), I want to discuss the two cards I feel have the most potential to make a comeback—Jace and Tezzeret (incredibly surprising, I know).

Let's start with the big one: Jace. The general consensus over the past two weeks seems to be that shipping Jace is a good idea. Now, however, if you were looking to cash out, you've missed the boat. Hold onto your Jaces, and if you can pick them up in the $80 range over the next month, feel free. I say this for two reasons:

1. You're kidding yourself if you think the card will be banned. That's just nonsense. Yes, Jace is as dominant as Skullclamp. Yes, he prices people out of the format. But, you know what? That doesn't matter. Jace, TMS is the poster-child Planeswalker (see Evan Erwin this week for a similar point), and WotC has invested a lot into him. Banning Jace is a PR nightmare. Furthermore, he's only around until M12 comes out late this summer Innistrad comes out this fall. If Jace were going to be banned, it would have been at least a few months ago, when he first started dominating Standard. As of now, WotC has no real incentive to ban the card that they can't simply ride out until it rotates.

2. Standard PTQ season is just around the corner. While Jace is rotating with M12, until then, he will continue to be a four-of in any deck that wants to have a reasonable chance of winning a major event, with the exception of Valakut (and even then, Jace is better). Staples, even rotating staples, always spike during PTW season. Expect there to be a window where Jace is back in the $100 to $110 range, if not a little higher, in May or June.

What about Tezzeret? I think you should also look at picking up Tezzeret when he bottoms out (probably in the near future). If there is any single card that stands to gain from both New Phyrexia and the rotation of Jace, the Mind Sculptor, it is Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas. I would expect him to hit the $50 to $60 mark at some point in late summer or early fall, as Standard season winds down, making him a solid investment. Tezzy's value is also buttressed by the fact that he is a major player in Legacy Affinity, and people continue to brew interesting decks with the card. Any mythic that makes it in Legacy, and holds as much interest as Tezzy has, has a good shot of grabbing a lot of value once a block rotates from Standard.

Legacy Aside

Before I say goodbye for today, I would like to briefly note some changes in my views on Legacy over the past few weeks. Thanks to my persistent critics, particularly those who actually read and understood the articles (here's looking at you, torerotutor) for discussing the issues.

I would like to state, in relation to the past two weeks' articles, that it looks like the potential bubbling in the Legacy market was not as bad as I had feared it could become. The market appears to be moving toward stabilization, and most prices have stabilized around where Star City Games initially moved the prices to, because those were the market prices. Those who read my article carefully last week would note that the issue I took with SCG was the manner in which they increased the prices, in that the advertising was on a different order from normal buy-list changes. This was a reasonable business decision, but I worried that it might spark a run on some Legacy staples, driving the price further up. In most cases, this does not appear to have been the case. Given that, I apologize to Ben Bleiweiss (and, by extension, Pete Hoefling) for overestimating his market power in Legacy.

However, I would like to note a few cases where some short-term bubbling (or "frothing"—a glib economics term for short-term "small bubbles") did occur. Some of these values (AEther Vial, maybe Force of Will) are most likely simple market overcorrections as the market attempts to find the equilibrium price. Others (Wasteland, probably Sword of Fire and Ice/Sword of Light and Shadow in the near future) are most likely evidence of market frothing after a major shift in the market. Exact disambiguation at this level is difficult, but I think Wasteland makes a convincing case that the market is settling back, at least for now. Also, note that the dual lands have all maintained stable value, as they were clearly undervalued previously.

Wasteland – Last week, this card hovered, out of stock on SCG, between $70 and $80, depending on the day. When I wrote my original article, it was at $60. Near-mint value at SCG is now $55, and they have 85 copies in stock (mostly SP at $50).

Force of Will – Force hit $90 last week, and has settled back to $80 ($70 SP, $60 MP). SCG has 172 in stock, of varying conditions. Depending on movement, this might settle further (though almost certainly not dropping below $70; Force was clearly undervalued in February).

AEther Vial – Hit $20 at the time of my original article, now back down to $18 as of this writing. Simple minor overcorrection.

Sword of Fire and Ice – Still at $50, but SCG has over 70 in stock, and the card is at most a two-of in Junk/Bant decks. This is almost certainly overvalued, and I would be surprised if it doesn't drop back down to the $30-to-$35 range eventually. Commander helps cut off supply to the Legacy market, but the Swords suffer from Legacy Mania, being in a newer set with high supply, and Stoneforge Mystic hype derived from Standard/Extended.

Sword of Light and Shadow – Still at $35, but SCG has 59 in stock, and the card is at most a one-of in some Legacy builds, often relegated to the sideboard. Plus, in many instances, Toshiro Umezawa's eating utensil does a better job (e.g. versus Goblins, Zoo). I would expect this to fall back into the $20-to-$25 range, buttressed mostly by Commaner/casual demand. See comments on SoFI, above.

Conclusion

Well, that's all I have for this week. Look to see Jace and Tezzeret make comebacks, the former in the near term, and the latter around rotation. I would also wait a week or two to pick up Legacy staples, to see if they settle any more (though I suspect that they won't by much), assuming you can afford to do so. In future weeks, until the market settles, at least, I will try to keep an eye on major shifts in Legacy (in addition to the Standard stock ticker), to ensure that no one is caught by surprise.