Welcome back dear readers, I hope you're enjoying spoiler season! Today I want to return to a financial theme and discuss something I think will affect Worldwake prices – initially subtly, and then more dramatically. After that I'll briefly cover a few of the spoilers we've seen so far, and see what changes their appearance might make in the market.

Building Blocks

The block structure of magic sets is one of the foundations of the game – it governs release schedules, block formats and other format rotations. Since originating the design in 1997, Wizards has generally stuck to producing a 3 set block each year, made up of a large set and two small sets. They are so fond of this structure that in 2006 they released the 3rd set for the Ice Age block, some 10 years after Ice Age was originally released. Drafting follows a pattern based on the staggered release of the sets in the block – when the large set comes out, drafts are done with 3 boosters of that set – for example, triple Ravnica draft. After a couple of months of this format the next set emerges, and drafts move to 2 of the first set and one of the second, eg. Ravnica-Ravnica-Guildpact. Finally when the third set is released the draft format is complete, and we have Ravnica-Guildpact-Dissension.

If you look carefully, you'll note that a lot more Ravnica packs are involved in drafting than Guildpact or Dissension. If we assume that 100 RRR drafts are done at a store, and 100 RRG drafts, and 100 RGD, then by the time the next block appears those drafters will have cracked 1600 Ravnica packs, 533 Guildpact, and 267 Dissension. The supply of, say, Doubling Season (a Ravnica rare) at that store will be much higher than the supply of Lyzolda, the Blood Witch (from Dissension). This effect is somewhat counteracted by the relative size of the sets – the large first set has a greater selection of rares than the following small sets, meaning any particular rare from the large set is less likely to appear in a booster. Generally speaking, being from a third set increases the price of a card based on their relative scarcity. This is one of the contributing factors in Tarmogoyf's exorbitant price tag, for example. Future Sight is in fact the perfect example of this as it is by far the best value set from Time Spiral block, and was even when TS block was in standard.

However in recent times they have been fooling about with this structure, notably in 2007-8 when Lorwyn block contained not 3, but 4 sets, divided into two "mini-blocks" of 2 sets each. Having tested the waters in this way, they are now trying something different again with Zendikar . In April the third set of the block, Rise of the Eldrazi, will be released - as a large set. It will still form part of Zendikar block constructed, but it will be drafted on its own. This leaves Worldwake in something of an awkward position, as it is the second set of the block but will only be drafted as much as a third set would usually be. Worldwake will be off the drafting menu and consigned to the back of store shelves before you know it. If there are any big-money rares to come out of the set they will likely be driven even higher because of this, so keep it in mind when trading for Worldwake cards. This is the most important conclusion to be found in today's article I feel, but for more easily applicable advice read on.

Spoiler Talk

There are currently 35 new cards to be found on spoiler pages, and I'm going to take a quick look at each of the rares and mythics we have available. If you're not familiar with the new cards just yet have a gander at the gallery. First, the mythics:

Admonition Angel

At collector's number 1, this is a helluva splashy way to start the set! A perfectly playable 6/6 flier for 6, the Oblivion Ring-esque ability is the icing on the cake. The only things that might keep this girl from being a constructed staple are a) the environment, and b) the competition. Standard is incredibly hostile to creatures that can't protect themselves, and we've had a good 6 months practice at shooting down powerful angels. Once she's killed all her good exiling work is undone as well. Consider also her obvious rival – the overwhelmingly efficient Baneslayer Angel. Look for her to stay at around $10, depending heavily on the possibility of being broken somehow. On the other hand, if she does do well Halo Hunter might finally have his time in the sun!

Comet Storm

I am pretty underwhelmed by this card for standard constructed. X spells are unpopular due to a poor interaction with cascade, and this one is not, I believe, powerful enough to warrant being played over its close relations Banefire or Earthquake. It does pack some versatility, but I don't think it'll be enough in the cutthroat world of pro Magic.

Dragonmaster Outcast

I expect this guy to slot right into decks playing Scute Mob as a direct replacement, with the intention of fetching them up with Ranger of Eos. Much like its green cousin you don't want this one drop early, instead you want to put it out late alongside another threat and overwhelm your opponent's single target removal. He may also find a home in Boros Bushwhacker, and even red-green ramp style decks like Valakut. Overall I think this guy will hold his preorder price, rising if one of his decks manages to stake a claim in the metagame.

Jace, the Mindsculptor

If the new Jace falls below $15 during his stay in standard, I will be very surprised. If there is a blue deck to come out of Worldwake it will certainly play Jace, and people are already hyped to try him out. That combined with the planeswalker and mythic surcharges and the 3rd set phenomenon discussed above should see him far surpassing the old version, and possibly heading towards Elspeth's price territory.

Novablast Wurm

Part of me really hopes this doesn't fall into junk rare territory, but this is a very expensive way to draw out a Terminate. I hate it when other people dismiss big creatures because they "die to everything" but it really does affect the playability of certain cards and hence the price on the secondary market. Its effect is so powerful, though, I would expect to see a lot of this guy at EDH tables in the coming months and I will certainly be tracking down a set as soon as possible to build a deck around.

Omnath, Locus of Mana

This guy looks like the first example of the new design space opened up by the removal of mana-burn from the game. Previously if you had a bunch of mana in your pool, and Omnath got hit with a Doom Blade, you would have to find a way to get rid of your mana or you would take a bunch of damage. This would be too much of a risk for many players and would see Omnath floating between trade binders, but now he might have a chance to shine. Personally I don't think he has what it takes – I think the account keeping involved will put casual players off, and for spike he is another arbitrarily large green creature with no evasion, reminiscent of Lord of Extinction – but even more vulnerable, since he's not black and if you play him turn 3 or 4 you probably won't have any spare mana to keep him out of Disfigure range. That said if the Upwelling ability becomes relevant somehow, he certainly has the potential to see tournament play. I expect Omnath will start high and drop quickly, probably settling below $5 before Rise of the Eldrazi arrives.

For the rares I'm going to discuss a few together as they naturally fall into categories, then the outliers one at a time.

Allies: Talus Paladin, Harabaz Druid

The ally cards in Worldwake and Zendikar are, more than any other subset of cards, reliant on each other. If we reach a critical mass of constructed playable allies regardless of rarity then the best of the rare ones will fly up in price. Each ally needs to be assessed on its individual merits but at the same time, the whole mass of allies will need to do well for any of them to be better than a junk rare. At this stage it is impossible to say whether there will be an ally deck and if there is, what allies will be in it, but the speculators reading would do well to grab some 50c playsets of the Zendikar rare ones on MTGO.

Raging Ravine, Celestial Colonnade, Lavaclaw Reaches

It was not so long ago that comes-into-play-tapped dual lands just fixed your 2 coloured manabase. That's all! Now they make a third colour, or gain you a life, or do your laundry for you. Even better than those for a two colour deck is the new incredible cycle of duals in Worldwake. For a two colour activation cost they will turn into a creature and beat down your opponent - with varying degrees of effectiveness. Celestial Colonnade is by far the best revealed so far as it has flying, but I am certain that every one of them will see standard play. Look to pick up your playsets early.

Tribal Lords: Kalastria Highborn, Joraga Warcaller

Both of these card's fortunes depend on how their respective tribes do. I expect Vampires, an already successful deck, will want the Highborn over its lacklustre Vampire Hexmages but it remains to be seen what other toys that deck will get with Worldwake. Joraga Warcaller, on the other hand, is an amazing card even ignoring his multi-kicker ability. There are so many ways to put extra counters on a creature I can't list them all here, but he will go a long way to dragging Eldrazi Elves back into standard contention.

Chain Reaction

Almost a red Wrath of God – except when it's not. This is very good against token decks but it is easy to concoct game situations where it is essentially an expensive Pyroclasm. I think this will probably end up rotting in trade binders though this is probably the card I'm least sure about of the previews so far, and I will be happily proven wrong if this does make the grade.

Lodestone Golem

Likely to see less play in standard than in eternal formats where it can be paired with other such fun cards as Trinisphere, Smokestack and Armageddon. As such, try to get hold of foil versions – which eternal players are reputedly mad for – and don't worry so much about the regular one.

Quest for the Nihil Stone

The obvious analogue to this card is The Rack, a tournament staple of ages past. How does the higher damage, but more difficult trigger compare? Is the seemingly easy setup an issue? Personally I think it will be slightly weaker than The Rack, but that doesn't mean I don't think it will see play. One that will require testing, and probably a whole new deck built around it. I certainly don't think Jund wants it, in any case.

Stone Idol Trap

Probably a junk rare, I think the best way to think about this card is as a Pitfall Trap combined with a blockable Ball Lightning. Is that worth 6 mana? I have reservations. I think it's a really interesting design, though, and I can't wait to see how it plays.

There we have my initial thoughts on Worldwake. Keep in mind that this is a lot closer to a third set than a second when considering prices, and keep a close eye on the allies appearing in the new set as the values of the existing ones could take off in response. There are a few obvious hits and misses I've noted above, as well as a number of could-bes. What are your thoughts on the spoilers so far? Sound off in the comments about the cards you're looking forward to or what you think could be a sleeper hit!