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Hey ManaNation readers,
I know the first thought popping into your head when looking at this article is, ‘Who is this guy? And why does he think he’s going to teach us anything?’ Well, don’t bother googling me. I haven’t had much success with playing Magic other than going to PTQ’s on the east coast and getting soul crushed on a regular basis. Don’t worry, this column has nothing to do with Magic playing; so I figure I’m in the clear a little bit. What I am here to do is to is talk about finance, and how knowledge of financial concepts can greatly improve the value you get out of this game that we all love.
As far as obligatory background stuff, I’m a senior at Drexel University majoring in both Finance and Marketing. I live in Philadelphia, and I’m also into poker and martial arts, including Judo and Krav Maga. Oh, and if I’m a little hung-over before a PTQ, I always grab mono red and wing it (which has a very, very, very low expected value and probably shouldn’t be repeated).
Speaking of expected value, I think that’s a good place to start. The concept of expected value in theory is simple, but mathematically, can be very complicated. Today we are going to focus on the overall concept and hopefully we can get into the nitty gritty at a later date.
The expected value of a random variable by definition is the weighted average of all possible values of the variable. In other words, in determining the expected value of an action, one must take into account the sum of all possible outcomes and the probability of all possible outcomes.
Say you’re going to roll a 6 sided die one time and your friend will match your roll by giving you however much money your roll is worth. 1 = $1, 2=$2, etc. And you being the mathematical whiz kid you are, want to find the expected value of this roll you’re about to make. In this case, let’s go over all the possible outcomes:
1) There is only one roll on the die to be made
2) The probability of rolling the die on any side is equal (Because we are not sharks or mathematical nitpickers are we?)
3) From that we can assume we have a 16.67% chance that we will land on any side (100/6=16.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666)
And now the sum of all possible outcomes and their probabilities:
4) We can set this up (16.67% = .1667):
(.1667*$1)+(.1667*$2)+(.1667*$3)+(.1667*$4)+(.1667*$5)+(.1667*$6)
Which gives us a final value of…(DRUMROLL): $3.5 dollars
So now you know that if you could possibly convince someone to actually give you money doing this you can expect to average out roughly $3.5 dollars per roll, over time. The thing about expected value is even when you know the math, there are going to be days where you roll straight 6’s and others where you can’t seem to get above a $1.
How can this help at all playing magic? Say you’re playing Lazlow at the local FNM and you know he is playing control. He’s a regular there and you know his play style well enough to tell when he is leaving mana open for tricks. Right now he has a Celestial Colonade and an Island untapped with two cards in hand and he hasn’t countered anything yet. Lazlow is trying to resolve a Jace TMS right now and you have the Mana Leak. The only problem is, he could have his own, and you can’t pay the cost.
Here you can take a step back and look at this through expected value. If you play the Mana Leak and he has his own Mana Leak, the Jace TMS hits the board and you’re out a counterspell. Likewise, you don’t have mana up to do any other fun things at the end of his turn. If you don’t play the Mana Leak he obviously gets his Jace TMS, but you get to keep your Mana Leak and still can try to do other things at the end of his turn to try and draw out his counter.
I know in the above example there are no concrete numbers, but you don’t have time to crunch math at the table, especially if it isn’t your forte. Here is where you have to decide on the values of each situation and decide which is more valuable. As far as the probabilities of each situation happening, this is unfortunately where the math becomes complex; but you can also use information gathered through ‘reading’ someone to determine your probability during a match.
There is expected value in every decision you make in life, let alone what you do when your slingin’ cards with your bros. In no way am I suggesting you become a human calculator and start doing math in your head before you wake out of bed. However, what I can suggest is just be more aware of the value you get out of the choices you make. For example, I know plenty of kids who, having not played a format in months, will drive hours to pay to play a tournament with people they know have been practicing. The next day they will complain that they spent too much money going to play and talk about their bad beats in round 2 to little Timmy and his homebrew. Practical use of expected value is basically being realistic. If it’s not worth it, just don’t do it.
I hope you have enjoyed my first article. Some future topics may include the importance of odds, beginners guide to speculation, and looking at magic cards as a commodity vs. actual play. Also if you have any questions feel free to use the interwebs to its potential to contact me.
Cheers!
Steve Mann
MrMann215 on the twitter (betty white voice)
P.S. If you have an extra play set of thoughtseizes think about it. They rotate soon and they probably aren’t going to be much hotter than they are now once they leave extended.
P.P.S. Let me give a little disclaimer: I am by no means the brightest financial mind to come across MTG. However I do know my fair share about the topic. I am writing this column geared toward people who do not have a financial background to help them get a basic understanding of financial topics in which they may find value. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
