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Fungibility, Mythics, and Trading

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In my last article, I addressed (and, I hope, dispelled) the popular myth that mythic rares make constructed decks more expensive. Instead, I argued that the real problem with mythics is that they make it more difficult to trade for the cards you need. The lack of trade fungibility makes it challenging to acquire cards using the rares you have picked up from drafts, cracking packs, and the like. In the long run, this means that unless you are a savvy trader, you are going to be spending more money—despite the decks costing the same amount—to play constructed Magic.

Now, you might think that, since the net result of mythics is still that you are spending more money, who cares what the reason is? The short answer is that you should care, because if the reason mythics have made your life more expensive is because you can't trade for tournament staples, there is something you can do about it. If fungibility is the problem, the way to compensate for the difficulty of acquiring mythic rares is to maximize the fungibility of your trading collection.

In what follows, I will outline a basic trading strategy designed to help the "casual" trader acquire those cards that he or she needs. For those who typically mainline Kelly Reid and Jon Medina articles, the discussion of trading may not be necessary, but for those who do not want to have to memorize new prices consistently and try to eke value out of every trade, keeping in mind the basics of fungibility should help maximize trading potential with minimal effort.

Three Model Trades

As discussed in my last article, the core problem with trading is the twin challenges of fungibility (the fact that cards often have large price disparities) and Diminishing Returns (the fact that players only need a certain number of most cards, and beyond the initial playset, extra copies drastically drop—for them—in value). As card prices increase, the likelihood of Diminishing Returns playing a factor decreases as well, as fewer players have all of the copies of the expensive cards they need.

The crucial thing to understand about the ascending fungibility of cards is that fungibility comes in three distinct tiers (excluding large Legacy/Vintage trades for power and near-power). To illustrate, consider the three potential trades for Jace, the Mind Sculptor that I mentioned in my last article. For reference, here they are:

Trade 1:

2 full sets of M10 dual lands for 1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Trade 2:

8 Zendikar fetch lands for 1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Trade 3:

1 Primeval Titan and 3 Lotus Cobra for 1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

As I discussed in my first article, these three trades are listed in ascending order of likelihood that the person who owns the Jace will agree to the trade (as a baseline, at least). Each step up represents additional "purchasing power" in the form of increased fungibility and a declining likelihood that Diminishing Returns is a relevant consideration.

Three Trades, Four Tiers of Cards

The first trade, which is unlikely to be completed except maybe with a dealer, suffers from the low fungibility of M10/M11 dual lands. Most traders, in particular the average PTQ grinder or casual FNM player, will not have a convenient way of offloading tons of $2 to $3 dual lands, simply because they don't have access to a broad enough market. In effect, they have to find their customers, rather than having customers come to them (more on this later). This substantially curtails the number of trading partners to which they have access.

The second trade, on the other hand, is substantially more likely to be completed. The base value of the fetch lands is between $85 and $100, depending on the fetch land, and perhaps more important, the lands are multiformat staple rares. This means that many more people are seeking to complete sets of fetch lands than M10/M11 duals. In addition, since fetches were only printed in one block, rather than multiple core sets, their supply is substantially lower. Finally, since the fetch lands are staples in Standard, Extended, Legacy, and even Vintage, they are much more likely to hold value after a block rotation. This permanence is the core asset of a highly fungible Magic card.

The third trade represents another step up, although a smaller one than the step between the first and second trades. Primeval Titan and Lotus Cobra are both archetype staple mythic rares, highly sought after for Standard constructed play. Because of their widely accepted tournament presence, as well as their scarcity due to their mythic rarity, they are much more likely to be accepted in trade for a multiformat all-star mythic like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. During Standard season, and usually any time away from a Standard rotation, these cards are some of the most fungible cards available. The only potential exception to this rule is Legacy-only traders, who may not value Standard mythics because they may have trouble moving them at the tournaments they typically attend.

Finally, there is a fourth tier, which consists of "true" Legacy staples and multiformat all-star mythics—Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Revised dual lands, and cornerstones in power trades (Grim Tutor, Imperial Seal, Moat, etc.). Ironically, at this level, you have started to lose trade fungibility simply because you are now more reluctant to break apart your staples that you worked hard to get—unless you are getting a really good deal. These cards retain value extremely well, but are in many ways like a CD account or bond rather than true "cash in the bank"—at least as far as trades are concerned—because it often takes time to "cash out" (read: find an acceptable trade). After all, you probably don't need sixteen copies of Oracle of Mul Daya, either, even if you do want to play R/U/G. Yet unless your trade partner has more valuable cards to trade for your Jace or Underground Sea, this is often the type of trade you would find yourself staring at.

Binder Building: Prioritizing Fungibility

What does this tell us in terms of basic trade strategy? How should you go about building your binder?

The answer is simple: Prioritize highly fungible cards, in particular at the outset, so that you can have access to whatever cards appear in a potential trade partner's binder. This means that you should be prioritizing cards in Tiers 2 and 3. Here are just a few examples of relevant cards:

Tier 2 (stable $5 to $15):

Tier 3 (stable $15 to $40, with potential upside):

In general, if you stock your binder with these types of cards, you will be able to access any new mythic rare that becomes relevant without having to engage in a lot of speculation. Remember, the core idea of this trade strategy is to maintain access to the cards you will want to acquire from season to season, not to simply maximize value (although you certainly can pick up value along the way).

Aside: Savvy traders will note that there are two different types of stability in these categories—Standard stability and Eternal stability. Standard stability obviously expires at format rotation, and you should try to unload your Standard cards that you aren't playing in a deck toward the middle of PTQ season so they don't end up rotting in your binder.

This strategy necessitates two major changes for how you likely already trade:

1. Avoid speculating on prerelease cards; just unload them for format staples as quickly as possible.

Remember, the key isn't to try and gain value on each and every trade, but simply to maximize the value you gain from the cards you already buy—in particular the rares you pick up through drafting. Don't be afraid, for example, if you open a Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas at a release event, to unload Tezzy for three fetch lands and a throw-in, for example, as the fetch lands will certainly hold value over the long run, while Tezzy's value will likely fluctuate while he waits to find the right deck.

2. Don't be afraid to use the secondary market, including bulking off cards to dealers.

Many players feel that they are being shafted when they sit down at a dealer table to get their cards valued, figuring that they can get more value for their cards if they just wait to find the right person to trade with. This reaction is understandable, since you are only likely to get $1 (if that) on a $3 rare when selling cards to a dealer. Unfortunately, though understandable, this reaction is a bad habit for maximizing your collection's fungibility. Bulking off these cards to a dealer is actually the correct decision.

Bulking off low-value Magic cards is correct for two reasons. First, it prevents slow-moving cards from atrophying in your binder, often until the deck that they were played in rotates out of Standard or loses its competitive edge. Second, the cardinal rule of maximizing the value of your collection is to make it work for you. This means maintaining cards that have a steady supply of potential "buyers," thereby allowing you access to as many cards as possible when building a deck.

Conclusion

While the mythic rarity has made decks more difficult to assemble, despite not increasing the "official" cost of competitive Standard decks, a basic understanding of the principle of fungibility can help even a relatively casual trader to maximize the potential of his or her binder. Such a strategy entails prioritizing trades for mid-level format staples and Standard mythics, cards in Tier 2, and eventually Tier 3 of the hierarchy outlined above. In order to accomplish this goal, traders will need to avoid excessive speculation on new cards, while at the same time being willing to bulk off slow-moving cards to dealers.

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